基于标准化降水指数的沧州干旱时空特征
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摘要
使用河北省沧州市14个气象站1966—2017年逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析该区域干旱时空特征。结果表明:(1)沧州年际干旱频率为26.9%,全域性、区域性、局域性干旱出现几率接近,轻旱、中旱较多,干旱范围与强度呈正相关,2003年后旱情减轻。干旱频率与强度呈负相关,西部干旱频率高、强度低,中部、东部频率低、强度高。(2)季节干旱频率为69.2%,春旱、冬旱发生频率高,多为全域性,但夏旱、秋旱发生后平均干旱强度更大。1980、1990年代和21世纪初旱情较重,2007年以后旱情减轻。空间分布上,夏旱的频率、强度分布与年际分布较为相似,与春旱分布几乎相反,秋旱、冬旱分布较为平均。全市旱涝变化较为一致,中部区域最为同步。
The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Cangzhou were analyzed based on the monthly precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations from 1966 to 2017 by using the standardized precipitation index(SPI). The results are as follows:(1) The annual drought frequency of Cangzhou was 26.9%. On the scope, the occurrence probability of the all-regional, regional and local drought was close. In terms of drought intensity, light drought and moderate drought occurred more frequently. The extent of drought was positively correlated with drought intensity. And drought reduced since 2003. In terms of regional distribution, the drought frequency was negatively correlated with drought intensity. The western region had high frequency but low intensity drought, central and eastern regions had low frequency but high intensity drought.(2) The frequency of seasonal drought in Cangzhou was 69.2%. The frequency of spring drought and winter drought was high, mostly all-regional. But if summer and autumn drought once occurred, the average intensity would be stronger. Drought intensity varied with time in total, it was more severe in the 1980 s, 1990 s and early 2000 s. The drought abated after 2007. In spatial distribution, the frequency and intensity distribution of summer drought were similar to that of annual drought, but almost opposite to that of spring drought. The distribution of autumn drought and winter drought was more average. The change of drought and flood in Cangzhou was relatively consistent, and in the central region it was the most synchronous.
The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Cangzhou were analyzed based on the monthly precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations from 1966 to 2017 by using the standardized precipitation index(SPI). The results are as follows:(1) The annual drought frequency of Cangzhou was 26.9%. On the scope, the occurrence probability of the all-regional, regional and local drought was close. In terms of drought intensity, light drought and moderate drought occurred more frequently. The extent of drought was positively correlated with drought intensity. And drought reduced since 2003. In terms of regional distribution, the drought frequency was negatively correlated with drought intensity. The western region had high frequency but low intensity drought, central and eastern regions had low frequency but high intensity drought.(2) The frequency of seasonal drought in Cangzhou was 69.2%. The frequency of spring drought and winter drought was high, mostly all-regional. But if summer and autumn drought once occurred, the average intensity would be stronger. Drought intensity varied with time in total, it was more severe in the 1980 s, 1990 s and early 2000 s. The drought abated after 2007. In spatial distribution, the frequency and intensity distribution of summer drought were similar to that of annual drought, but almost opposite to that of spring drought. The distribution of autumn drought and winter drought was more average. The change of drought and flood in Cangzhou was relatively consistent, and in the central region it was the most synchronous.
引文
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[12] 梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.基于SPEI的中国东北地区1961—2014年干旱时空演变[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(1):148-157.
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[14] 潘冬梅,诺尔莎拉.基于干旱K指数的阿勒泰地区夏旱风险区划[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(6):68-72.
[15] 谢清霞,谷晓平,庞庆兵.基于CI指数的昔年地区1961—2012年春季干旱分布特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):53-58.
[16] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology[C/OL].Boston:American Meteorological Society,1993.
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[18] 王帅兵,李常斌,杨林山,等.基于标准化降水指数与Z指数的洮河流域干旱趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):565-572.
[19] 杨晓静,左德鹏,徐宗学.基于标准化降水指数的云南省近55年旱涝演变特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):473-480.
[20] 王媛媛,张勃.基于标准化降水指数的近40 a陇东地区旱涝时空特征[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2135-2144.
[21] 车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965—2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.
[22] 娇楠,李运刚,李雪,等.云南省1961—2012年干旱时空变化特征[J].山地学报,2016,34(1):19-27.
[23] 杨鹏,李春强,高祺,等.多种干旱遥感监测模型在河北地区的适用性研究[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(16):231-237.
[24] 刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,等.近54年华北平原干旱时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(增刊):1-7.
[25] 孙智辉,王志亮,曹雪梅,等.基于标准化降水指数的陕西黄土高原地区1971—2010年干旱变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1560-1567.
[26] 胡子瑛,周俊菊,张利利,等.中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1908-1919.
[27] 李楠,李慧,李强,等.基于标准化降水指数的鲁西地区干旱时空特征分析[J].山东农业科学,2017,49(7):131-138.
[28] 那音太.基于SPI指数的近50 a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):161-166.
[29] 高西宁,徐庆喆,丛俊霞,等.基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(11):1851-1857.
[30] 张利利,周俊菊,张恒玮,等.基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(3):996-1007.
[2] 邹旭恺,张强.近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究[J].应用气象学,2008,19(6):679-687.
[3] 胡顺起,曹张驰,刘婷婷.华北地区极端干旱事件的变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2017,40(4):121-125.
[4] 申泽峥,颜玉倩,胡毅.河北省南部干旱特征及其对冬小麦产量的影响分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(2):76-81.
[5] 成林,张广周,陈怀亮.华北冬小麦-夏玉米两熟区干旱特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):8-13.
[6] 竹磊磊,常军,张善强.河南夏季干旱气候特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2012,35(1):49-55.
[7] 1949—2007年我国干旱灾害特征及成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(04):659-665.
[8] 王劲松,郭江勇,周跃武,等.干旱指标研究的进展与展望[J].干旱区地理,2007(1):60-65.
[9] ZARGAR A,SADIQ R,NASER B,et al.A review of drought indices[J].Environmental Reviews,2011,19(NA):333-349.
[10] 李忆平,李耀辉.气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):709-723.
[11] 程善俊,梁苏洁.基于3种指数的全球干湿变化年代际特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(2):176-184.
[12] 梁丰,刘丹丹,王婉昭,等.基于SPEI的中国东北地区1961—2014年干旱时空演变[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(1):148-157.
[13] 陈再清,侯威,左冬冬,等.基于修订Copula函数的中国干旱特征研究[J].干旱气象,2016,34(2):213-222.
[14] 潘冬梅,诺尔莎拉.基于干旱K指数的阿勒泰地区夏旱风险区划[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(6):68-72.
[15] 谢清霞,谷晓平,庞庆兵.基于CI指数的昔年地区1961—2012年春季干旱分布特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):53-58.
[16] MCKEE T B,DOESKEN N J,KLEIST J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology[C/OL].Boston:American Meteorological Society,1993.
[17] WU H,HAYES M J,WILHITE D A,et al.The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(4):505-520.
[18] 王帅兵,李常斌,杨林山,等.基于标准化降水指数与Z指数的洮河流域干旱趋势分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):565-572.
[19] 杨晓静,左德鹏,徐宗学.基于标准化降水指数的云南省近55年旱涝演变特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):473-480.
[20] 王媛媛,张勃.基于标准化降水指数的近40 a陇东地区旱涝时空特征[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2135-2144.
[21] 车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41年(1965—2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.
[22] 娇楠,李运刚,李雪,等.云南省1961—2012年干旱时空变化特征[J].山地学报,2016,34(1):19-27.
[23] 杨鹏,李春强,高祺,等.多种干旱遥感监测模型在河北地区的适用性研究[J].江苏农业科学,2018,46(16):231-237.
[24] 刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,等.近54年华北平原干旱时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(增刊):1-7.
[25] 孙智辉,王志亮,曹雪梅,等.基于标准化降水指数的陕西黄土高原地区1971—2010年干旱变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1560-1567.
[26] 胡子瑛,周俊菊,张利利,等.中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1908-1919.
[27] 李楠,李慧,李强,等.基于标准化降水指数的鲁西地区干旱时空特征分析[J].山东农业科学,2017,49(7):131-138.
[28] 那音太.基于SPI指数的近50 a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):161-166.
[29] 高西宁,徐庆喆,丛俊霞,等.基于标准化降水指数的辽宁省近54年干旱时空规律分析[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(11):1851-1857.
[30] 张利利,周俊菊,张恒玮,等.基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(3):996-1007.
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