蒙古黄芪潜在分布区预测的多模型比较
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摘要
根据蒙古黄芪(Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) Bge. var. mongholicus (Bge.) Hsiao) 123个样本点数据和19个环境数据,采用4种生态位模型对蒙古黄芪在中国的潜在适生区进行综合分析,并采用受试者工作特征曲线ROC和Kappa统计量,比较不同模型的预测效果。结果显示:4个模型预测精度良好,一致性显著。AUC值均达到0.8以上,Kappa值均达到0.6以上;其中DOMAIN模型的AUC值和Kappa值均最大,说明该模型的预测精度最佳,预测结果最稳定。潜在适生区的预测结果发现,GARP模型预测的最适宜区范围最广; MAXENT和BIOCLIM模型预测结果较为相似; DOMAIN模型预测结果比较分散。4个模型预测结果均表明西北一带可以作为蒙古黄芪栽培引种的主要产区。蒙古黄芪潜在适生区主要分布于中国北纬33°以北地区;最适宜区主要分布于甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、河北和内蒙古等地区。
Based on 123 distribution points of Astragalus membranaceus( Fisch.) Bge. var.mongholicus( Bge.) Hsiao and 19 ecological variables,four ecological niche models( i. e.,BIOCLIM,DOMAIN,GARP,and MAXENT) were used to predict the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus,with the different models then judged and compared using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves( AUC) and Kappa values.Results showed that the four models had good prediction accuracy and consistency,with AUC values above 0.8 and Kappa values above 0.6. The DOMAIN model demonstrated the highest AUC and Kappa values,indicating that the prediction accuracy and results of this model were optimal and stable. The predicted suitable area range of the GARP model was the widest,with the MAXENT and BIOCLIM models showing similar prediction ranges and DOMAIN demonstrating relatively dispersed prediction regions. The four models showed that the northwest regions could be used as major production areas for A. membranaceus var.mongholicus cultivation. The prediction results indicated that the potential distribution areas for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus were mainly located in north of 33°N,and included Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Hebei,and the border area of northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia. In addition,small potentially suitable areas were also located in Xinjiang,Tibet,Qinghai,and Sichuan. However,the most suitable areas were distributed in Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Based on 123 distribution points of Astragalus membranaceus( Fisch.) Bge. var.mongholicus( Bge.) Hsiao and 19 ecological variables,four ecological niche models( i. e.,BIOCLIM,DOMAIN,GARP,and MAXENT) were used to predict the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus,with the different models then judged and compared using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves( AUC) and Kappa values.Results showed that the four models had good prediction accuracy and consistency,with AUC values above 0.8 and Kappa values above 0.6. The DOMAIN model demonstrated the highest AUC and Kappa values,indicating that the prediction accuracy and results of this model were optimal and stable. The predicted suitable area range of the GARP model was the widest,with the MAXENT and BIOCLIM models showing similar prediction ranges and DOMAIN demonstrating relatively dispersed prediction regions. The four models showed that the northwest regions could be used as major production areas for A. membranaceus var.mongholicus cultivation. The prediction results indicated that the potential distribution areas for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus were mainly located in north of 33°N,and included Mongolia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Gansu,Ningxia,Hebei,and the border area of northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia. In addition,small potentially suitable areas were also located in Xinjiang,Tibet,Qinghai,and Sichuan. However,the most suitable areas were distributed in Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
引文
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[6]Kulhanek SA,Leung B,Ricciardi A.Using ecological niche models to predict the abundance and impact of invasive species:Application to the common carp[J].Ecol Appl,2011,21(1):203-213.
[7]张琴,曾凡琳,张东方,谢彩香,陈士林.基于最大熵模型的三七生态适宜区及生态特征[J].药学学报,2016,51(10):1629-1637.Zhang Q,Zeng FL,Zhang DF,Xie CX,Chen SL.Ecology suitability regions and ecological characteristics of Panax notoginseng(Burk.)F.H.Chen based on maximum entropy model[J].Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica,2016,51(10):1629-1637.
[8]文检,宋经元,谢彩香,张琴,曾凡琳,张艺.基于最大信息熵模型的能源物种麻疯树潜在适宜区[J].植物科学学报,2016,34(6):849-856.Wen J,Song JY,Xie CX,Zhang Q,Zen FL,Zhang Y.Identification of potential distribution areas for energy plant Jatropha curcas L.using the Maxent Entropy Model[J].Plant Science Journal,2016,34(6):849-856.
[9]Busby JR.BIOCLIM-a bioclimate analysis and prediction system[J].Plant Protection Quarterly,1991,6(1):8-9.
[10]Carpenter G,Gillison AN,Winter J.DOMAIN:A flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals[J].Biodivers Conserv,1993,2(6):667-680.
[11]Stovkwell D,Peters D.The GARP modeling system:problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction[J].Int J Geogr Inf Sci,1999,13(2):143-158.
[12]Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecol Model,2006,190:231-259.
[13]刘增辉,曹晓虹.栽培黄芪的研究综述[J].甘肃农业科技,2014(6):54-56.Liu ZH,Cao XH.Review on cultivation of Radix Astragali[J].Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology,2014(6):54-56.
[14]孙政华,邵晶,郭玫.黄芪化学成分及药理作用研究进展[J].中医临床研究,2015,7(25):22-25.Sun ZH,Shao J,Guo M.A review on chemical components and pharmacological effects of Huangqi[J].Clinical Journal of Chinese Medicine,2015,7(25):22-25.
[15]朱耿平,刘国卿,卜文俊,高玉葆.生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用[J].生物多样性,2013,21(1):90-98.Zhu GP,Liu GQ,Bu WJ,Gao YB.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation[J].Biodiversity Science,2013,21(1):90-98.
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[17]Graham MH.Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression[J].Ecology,2003,84(11):2809-2815.
[18]Zhang MG,Slik JWF,Ma KP.Using species distribution modeling to delineate the botanical richness patterns and phytogeographical regions of China[J].Sci Rep-UK,2016,3:1-9.
[19]Vanagas G.Receiver operating characteristic curves and comparison of cardiac surgery risk stratification systems[J].Interact Cardiov Th,2004,3(2):319-322.
[20]Manel S,Williams HC,Ormerod SJ.Evaluating presenceabsence models in ecology:the need to account for prevalence[J].J Appl Ecol,2001,38(5):921-931.
[21]Segurado P,Araujo MB.An evaluation of methods for modelling species’distributions[J].J Biogeogr,2004,31(10):1555-1568.
[22]陈亚.何首乌质量评价及产地适宜区划研究[D].广州:广州中医药大学,2013.
[23]王运生.生态位模型在外来入侵物种风险评估中的应用研究[D].长沙:湖南农业大学,2007.
[24]索风梅,丁万隆,谢彩香,董粱,林余霖,等.蒙古黄芪的生态适宜性数值分析[J].世界科学技术-中医药现代化,2010,12(3):480-485.Suo FM,Ding WL,Xie CX,Dong L,Lin YL,et al.GIS-Based ecological evaluation of suitable areas of Astragalus membranaceus Growth[J].World Science and Technology-Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Materia Medica,2010,12(3):480-485.
[25]刘德旺,谷彩梅,杨庆珍,黄林芳,谢彩香.内蒙古地区道地药材蒙古黄芪资源调查及产地适宜性[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(3):838-844.Liu DW,Gu CM,Yang QZ,Huang LF,Xie CX.Resource surveys and suitability of origin for genuine medicinal materials,Astragalus membranaceus var.mongholicus in Inner Mongolia,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(3):838-844.
[26]马松梅,张明理,张宏祥,孟宏虎,陈曦.利用最大熵模型和规则集遗传算法模型预测孑遗植物裸果木的潜在地理分布及格局[J].植物生态学报,2010,34(11):1327-1335.Ma SM,Zhang ML,Zhang HX,Meng HH,Chen X.Predicting potential geographical distributions and patterns of the relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii using Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2010,34(11):1327-1335.
[27]王娟,倪健.中国北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿植物的分布模拟[J].植物生态学报,2009,33(1):12-24.Wang J,Ni J.Modelling The distribution of five Caragana species in temperate northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2009,33(1):12-24.
[28]张雷,刘世荣,孙鹏森,王同立.气候变化对马尾松潜在分布影响预估的多模型比较[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(11):1091-1105.Zhang L,Liu SR,Sun PS,Wang TL.Comparative evaluation of multiple models of the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Pinus massoniana[J].Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology,2011,35(11):1091-1105.
[29]王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,肖启明,戴良英.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J].生物多样性,2007,15(4):365-372.Wang YS,Xie BY,Wan FH,Xiao QM,Dai LY.Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’potential distribution models[J].Biodiversity Science,2007,15(4):365-372.
[30]赵月春.黄芪的规范化栽培技术[J].山西科技,2015,30(3):155-157.Zhao YC.Standardized cultivation techniques of Astragalus membranaceus[J].Shanxi Science and Technology,2015,30(3):155-157.
[31]黄建军.秦岭构造带对陕西气候和生态环境的控制作用[J].地球科学与环境学报,2015,37(3):81-86.Huang JJ.Control of Qinling tectonic zone on climate and eco-environment in Shaanxi[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2015,37(3):81-86.
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