基于AIS的船舶会遇局面紧迫度量化分析
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摘要
近年来船舶大型化、高速化的发展以及数量的不断递增,导致船舶碰撞概率大大增加。为更好地保障船舶航行安全,提出船舶会遇局面紧迫度这一概念。该概念表征船舶在当前航行状态下由于一定范围内所有其他船舶的存在而处于的会遇局面的紧迫程度,其旨在帮助船舶驾驶员实时感知并掌握船舶在海上航行时所处会遇局面的状况,从而据此加以判断并及时采取措施规避碰撞风险。建立了船舶会遇局面紧迫度的计算模型,该模型以考虑到本船速度的动态圆形领域为空间约束条件,综合考虑其他船舶相对于本船的方位分布和距离这两个指标的影响,基于信息量量化紧迫度。利用2016年1月1日天津港AIS数据进行紧迫度的计算与分析,计算结果与实际相符,该计算模型能够准确反映船舶在航行过程中所处会遇局面的紧迫程度。利用双线性内插法建立天津港区域紧迫度二维彩色平面分布图,其表达效果优于传统热度图。
In recent years, with the growth of ship size, ship speed and the number of ships, the probability of ship collision has greatly increased. In order to better ensure the safety of ship navigation, the concept of the Degree of Ship Urgency is proposed, which characterizes the degree of urgency of the encounter situation considering the existence of other ships in the current state of navigation. It is designed to help captains grasp the encounter situation of the ship in real time, so that measures can be taken to avoid the danger in time. A calculation model based on information content is built, which takes the dynamic circle domain considering its own ship's speed as the space constraint condition, comprehensively considering the influence of ships' relative direction and the distance. To authenticate the accuracy and validity of the model, an experiment was carried out using the AIS data of Tianjin Port on January 1, 2016. The calculation results are in conformity with the actual condition, and the calculation model can accurately reflect the Degree of Ship Urgency in encounter situations. The two-dimensional distribution map of the Degree of Ship Urgency of Tianjin Port is built by using bilinear interpolation method,and its expression effect is better than traditional heat map.
In recent years, with the growth of ship size, ship speed and the number of ships, the probability of ship collision has greatly increased. In order to better ensure the safety of ship navigation, the concept of the Degree of Ship Urgency is proposed, which characterizes the degree of urgency of the encounter situation considering the existence of other ships in the current state of navigation. It is designed to help captains grasp the encounter situation of the ship in real time, so that measures can be taken to avoid the danger in time. A calculation model based on information content is built, which takes the dynamic circle domain considering its own ship's speed as the space constraint condition, comprehensively considering the influence of ships' relative direction and the distance. To authenticate the accuracy and validity of the model, an experiment was carried out using the AIS data of Tianjin Port on January 1, 2016. The calculation results are in conformity with the actual condition, and the calculation model can accurately reflect the Degree of Ship Urgency in encounter situations. The two-dimensional distribution map of the Degree of Ship Urgency of Tianjin Port is built by using bilinear interpolation method,and its expression effect is better than traditional heat map.
引文
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贾立校,2016.船舶碰撞危险度模型应用与验证.舰船科学技术,38(10):16-18.
刘亮,张培林,2010.长江水上交通安全预警管理运行机制研究.交通信息与安全,28(4):116-118.
任亚磊,2013.基于AIS数据的船舶会遇特征研究.武汉:武汉理工大学.
文元桥,张恒,万品,2012.基于序次Probit模型的航道船舶碰撞危险度研究.中国安全科学学报,22(2):134-139.
张婷,2014.基于模糊层次分析法的船舶碰撞危险度计算.中国水运,14(5):17-18.
张永兵,张安民,杜佳芸,2018.基于AIS和潮汐数据的航道水深利用状况研究---以天津港复式航道为例.海洋通报,37(2):209-218.
章泽虎,2012.基于模糊综合评判的船舶碰撞危险度模型研究.大连:大连海事大学.
Goerlandt F,Kujala P,2011.Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling.Reliability Engineering&System Safety,96(1):91-107.
Hu Q,Hu Q,Shi C,2006.A Negotiation Framework for Automatic Collision Avoidance between Vessels.IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Intelligent Agent Technology.IEEE:595-601.
Perera L P,Carvalho J P,Soares C G,2011.Fuzzy logic based decision making system for collision avoidance of ocean navigation under critical collision conditions.Journal of Marine Science&Technology,16(1):84-99.
Qu X,Meng Q,Suyi L,2011.Ship collision risk assessment for the Singapore Strait.Accident Analysis&Prevention,43(6):2030-2036.
Wan Z,Chen J,Makhloufi AE,et al,2016.Four routes to better maritime governance.Nature,540(7631):27.
Wang J,Fan Y T,2009.Risk analysis based on the ship collision modeling and forecasting system.IEEE International Conference on Systems,Man and Cybernetics.IEEE:1517-1521.
Zaman M B,Kobayashi E,Wakabayashi N,et al,2014.Fuzzy FMEAmodel for risk evaluation of ship collisions in the Malacca Strait:based on AIS data.Journal of Simulation,8(1):91-104.
Zhang W,Goerlandt F,Montewka J,et al,2015.A method for detecting possible near miss ship collisions from AIS data.Ocean Engineering,107(1):60-69.
Zhen R,Riveiro M,Jin Y,2017.A novel analytic framework of real-time multi-vessel collision risk assessment for maritime traffic surveillance.Ocean Engineering,145:492-501.
Zhu X,Xu H,Lin J,2001.Domain and Its Model Based on Neural Networks.Journal of Navigation,54(1):97-103.
胡甚平,2001.船舶会遇过程中避碰阶段的划分与量化.中国航海,(2):83-87.
贾立校,2016.船舶碰撞危险度模型应用与验证.舰船科学技术,38(10):16-18.
刘亮,张培林,2010.长江水上交通安全预警管理运行机制研究.交通信息与安全,28(4):116-118.
任亚磊,2013.基于AIS数据的船舶会遇特征研究.武汉:武汉理工大学.
文元桥,张恒,万品,2012.基于序次Probit模型的航道船舶碰撞危险度研究.中国安全科学学报,22(2):134-139.
张婷,2014.基于模糊层次分析法的船舶碰撞危险度计算.中国水运,14(5):17-18.
张永兵,张安民,杜佳芸,2018.基于AIS和潮汐数据的航道水深利用状况研究---以天津港复式航道为例.海洋通报,37(2):209-218.
章泽虎,2012.基于模糊综合评判的船舶碰撞危险度模型研究.大连:大连海事大学.
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