特朗普政府反恐预警机制改革论析
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摘要
特朗普上台伊始,以"伊斯兰国"为代表的外部恐怖力量的恶性发展和本土"独狼"式恐怖袭击的频发严重威胁着美国安全,民众不安全感因此持续上升,加之美国反恐系统的缺陷,要求改革美国反恐预警机制的呼声日增。特朗普政府改革反恐预警机制的举措主要包括加强反恐情报搜集和分析、加强与盟友的情报合作与共享机制、加强边界与海关的预防管控、强化反恐预防执法机制、修正国家威胁警报系统公告发布机制等五个方面。纵观特朗普政府执政两年的反恐预警机制改革实践,其实际效果并不明显。特朗普与情报界的紧张关系及特朗普政府的情报失误、强化移民治理机制、预防恐怖分子政策、对穆斯林敌对性的移民政策、边界预防管控的任性政策及反恐战略的不确定性等,都将影响美国正常反恐预警机制的形成,也会影响美国反恐预警机制的效果与改革方向。美国预防恐怖主义需要在国内解决社会分裂问题,在国外放弃霸凌政策以缓解反美力量对美的敌对情绪,美国面临的恐怖威胁才有可能降低。
Since Donald Trump took office as President of the United States, this country has seen further development of terrorist forces represented by the "Islamic State" and frequent occurrence of the local "lone wolf" terrorist attacks. In addition, the intensified public feelings of insecurity, coupled with the defects in the UScounter-terrorism system, have called for reforms on the counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism of the United States. The main reform measures taken by the Trump administration include five aspects: strengthening counter-terrorism intelligence gathering and analysis, improving the intelligence-sharing and cooperation mechanism with its allies, enhancing its capacity to secure and control the borders, bolstering the mechanism for terrorism prevention and law enforcement and revising the announcement and issuance mechanism of Homeland Security Advisory System. However, the reforms still suffer a loss of focus and effectiveness despite strenuous efforts made by the Trump administration over the past two years. Tensions between President Trump and the intelligence community, together with the intelligence blunders made by the Trump administration, overreactive policies of strengthening immigration governance mechanism to prevent terrorists, hostile immigration policies against the Muslims, capricious policies of the border control mechanism as well as the inconsistent counter-terrorism strategies will affect not only the formation of a normal counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism but also the effectiveness and reform direction of such mechanism. To prevent terrorism, the United States needs to address social disintegration at home and abandon its bullying policies abroad to alleviate the hostility of anti-American forces. Only by doing so will terrorist threats facing the United States be likely to be reduced.
Since Donald Trump took office as President of the United States, this country has seen further development of terrorist forces represented by the "Islamic State" and frequent occurrence of the local "lone wolf" terrorist attacks. In addition, the intensified public feelings of insecurity, coupled with the defects in the UScounter-terrorism system, have called for reforms on the counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism of the United States. The main reform measures taken by the Trump administration include five aspects: strengthening counter-terrorism intelligence gathering and analysis, improving the intelligence-sharing and cooperation mechanism with its allies, enhancing its capacity to secure and control the borders, bolstering the mechanism for terrorism prevention and law enforcement and revising the announcement and issuance mechanism of Homeland Security Advisory System. However, the reforms still suffer a loss of focus and effectiveness despite strenuous efforts made by the Trump administration over the past two years. Tensions between President Trump and the intelligence community, together with the intelligence blunders made by the Trump administration, overreactive policies of strengthening immigration governance mechanism to prevent terrorists, hostile immigration policies against the Muslims, capricious policies of the border control mechanism as well as the inconsistent counter-terrorism strategies will affect not only the formation of a normal counter-terrorism early-warning mechanism but also the effectiveness and reform direction of such mechanism. To prevent terrorism, the United States needs to address social disintegration at home and abandon its bullying policies abroad to alleviate the hostility of anti-American forces. Only by doing so will terrorist threats facing the United States be likely to be reduced.
引文
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(1)刘胜湘、姚全:《英国安全风险评估与危机预警机制论析》,载《欧洲研究》2017年第3期,第109页。
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(4)张帆:《“防止九一一式恐怖袭击”与“反暴力极端主义”--比较分析美国国内防止恐怖袭击的两种战略模式》,载《美国研究》2017年第4期,第43页。
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(6)“Gallup Poll:American Public Opinion,Terrorism and Guns,”June 13,2016,https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192695/american-public-opinion-terrorism-guns.aspx.
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(3)屈健、龚志伟、任佳:《国外反恐预警机制借鉴研究》,载《武警学院学报》2017年第9期,第84页。
(4)梅建明、李健和、马振超、王存奎、翟金鹏:《美国反恐怖预警机制研究》,载《中国人民公安大学学报(社会科学版)》2009年第1期,第1-2页。
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(2)The St.Louis Fusion Center,“Terrorism Early Warning Group,Federal,State&Local Public/Private Partnership,”2018,https://sltew.org/.o
(1)刘胜湘、姚全:《英国安全风险评估与危机预警机制论析》,载《欧洲研究》2017年第3期,第109页。
(2)The White House,National Security Strategy,February 2015,p.9,https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf.
(1)The New York City Police Department,Radicalization in the West:The Homegrown Threat,New York,2007,p.6.
(2)The White House,National Security Strategy,February 2015,p.9,https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf.
(3)United States Department of State Publication,Country Reports on Terrorism 2015,June 22016,p.9,https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/258249.pdf.
(4)张帆:《“防止九一一式恐怖袭击”与“反暴力极端主义”--比较分析美国国内防止恐怖袭击的两种战略模式》,载《美国研究》2017年第4期,第43页。
(1)“Gallup Poll:Trust in U.S.Government’s Terrorism Protection at New Low,”June 10,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/183557/trust-government-terrorism-protection-new-low.aspx.
(2)“Gallup Poll:Americans Name Terrorism as No.1 U.S.Problem,”December 14,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/187655/americans-name-terrorism-no-problem.aspx.
(3)“Gallup Poll:In U.S,Worries about Terrorism,Race Relations Up Sharply,”March 17,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/182018/worries-terrorism-race-relations-sharply.aspx.
(4)“Gallup Poll:Americans Name Terrorism as No.1 U.S.Problem,”December 14,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/187655/americans-name-terrorism-no-problem.aspx.
(5)“Gallup Poll:Trust in U.S.Government’s Terrorism Protection at New Low,”June 10,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/183557/trust-government-terrorism-protection-new-low.aspx.
(6)“Gallup Poll:American Public Opinion,Terrorism and Guns,”June 13,2016,https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192695/american-public-opinion-terrorism-guns.aspx.
(1)“Gallup Poll:American Public Opinion,Terrorism and Guns,”June 13,2016,https://news gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192695/american-public-opinion-terrorism-guns.aspx.
(2)“Gallup Poll:Trust in U.S.Government’s Terrorism Protection at New Low,”June 10,2015,http://news.gallup.com/poll/183557/trust-government-terrorism-protection-new-low.aspx.
(3)“Gallup Poll:American Public Opinion,Terrorism and Guns,”June 13,2016,https://news gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192695/american-public-opinion-terrorism-guns.aspx.
(1)《奥巴马斥加州枪案系恐怖主义美国反恐警钟再响》,新华网,2015年12月8日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2015-12/08/c_128509136.htm。
(2)何强强、沈彦:《美国国家反恐中心简介》,载《国际信息资料》2010年第2期,第22页。
(3)刘胜湘等:《世界主要国家安全体制机制研究》,北京:经济科学出版社2018年版,第24页。
(4)李明:《美国突发事件与制度创新》,北京:社会科学文献出版社2016年版,第264页。
(1)陶乐:《反恐利器:生物识别技术》,载《现代世界警察》2018年第11期,第90页。
(2)李超、周瑛、魏星:《基于暗网的反恐情报分析研究》,载《情报杂志》2018年第6期,第18页。
(3)倪俊:《特朗普签署法案授权NSA监控项目,继续监听外籍人士收集情报》,载《信息安全与通信保密》2018年第2期,第9页。
(4)刘胜湘等:《世界主要国家安全体制机制研究》,北京:经济科学出版社2018年版,第28页。
(1)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017,p.11,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(2)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017,pp.46-52,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(3)段建炜:《对特朗普推动情报改革的评估与预测》,载《情报杂志》2018年第3期,第7页。
(4)Nathan A.Sales,“Counterterrorism Diplomacy-Ten Highlights of 2017,”January 2,2018,https://blogs.state.gov/stories/2018/01/02/en/counterterrorism-diplomacy-ten-highlights-2017.
(5)US Fed News Service,“Defeat-ISIS Coalition Reflects on 2017,”Looks Forward to 2018,January 1,2018,p.1.
(1)贾春阳:《特朗普政府反恐政策初探》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第4期,第14页。
(2)Nathan A.Sales,“Counterterrorism Diplomacy-Ten Highlights of 2017,”January 2,2018,https://blogs.state.gov/stories/2018/01/02/en/counterterrorism-diplomacy-ten-highlights-2017.
(3)“National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin,”November 9,2017,https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/ntas/alerts/17_1109_NTAS_Bulletin.pdf.
(4)刘胜湘、邬超:《美国情报与安全预警机制论析》,载《国际关系研究》2017年第6期,第98页。
(5)Executive Order,“Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements,”January 25,2017,https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-border-security-immigrationenforcement-improvements/.
(1)成珞:《美国800万非法移民面临“拘留遣返”》,载《解放日报》2017年2月23日,第008版。
(2)“Statement from President Donald J.Trump on House Passage of Kate’s Law and No Sanctuary for Criminals Act,”June 29,2017,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-house-passage-kates-law-no-sanctuary-criminals-act/.
(3)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017,p.10,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(4)The White House,White House Framework on Immigration Reform&Border Security,January 25,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/white-house-frameworkimmigration-reform-border-security/.
(5)《特朗普下令建立全国审查中心严防危险分子入境》,中国新闻网,2018年2月7日,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2018/02-07/8443318.shtml。
(1)“What You Need To Know About President Donald J.Trump’s Efforts To End Catch And Release,”April 9,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/need-know-president-donaldj-trumps-efforts-end-catch-release/.
(2)The White House,National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America,October 2018,p.17,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NSCT.pdf.
(4)《美最高法通过特朗普对6个穆斯林国家的旅行禁令》,人民日报海外网,2017年12月5日,http://news.haiwainet.cn/n/2017/1205/c3541093-31196101.html。
(5)Charlotte Cuthbertson,“Homegrown Terror a Top Threat to US,Say Agency Chiefs,”October12,2017,http://intelligentsystemsmonitoring.com/community/security-community/homegrown-terrora-top-threat-to-us-say-agency-chiefs/.
(6)熊长论编译:《希望与恐惧:美国反恐的内忧外患》,载《社会科学报》2018年1月4日,第7版。
(1)Charlotte Cuthbertson,“Homegrown Terror a Top Threat to US,Say Agency Chiefs,”October12,2017,http://intelligentsystemsmonitoring.com/community/security-community/homegrown-terrora-top-threat-to-us-say-agency-chiefs/.
(2)熊长论编译:《希望与恐惧:美国反恐的内忧外患》,载《社会科学报》2018年1月4日,第7版。
(3)Office of the Secretary of Defense,Nuclear Posture Review,February 2018,p.16,https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-NUCLEAR-POSTURE-REVIEW-FINAL-REPORT.PDF.
(4)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017p.11,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(1)The White House,National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America,October 2018,pp.15-16,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NSCT.pdf.
(2)Jessica Zuckerman,“National Terrorism Threat Level:Color-Coded System Not Missed,”September 26,2012,http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2012/pdf/ib3743.pdf.
(3)“Homeland Security Activates New Terror Warning Level,”USA Today,December 16,2015,https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/12/16/terror-warning-level-homeland-security-departmentjeh-johnson/77385610/.
(4)“National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin,”May 15,2017,https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/ntas/alerts/National%20Terrorism%20Advisory%20System%20Issued%20May%2015%2C%202017.pdf.
(1)“National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin,”September 14,2018,https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/ntas/alerts/18_0914_NTAS-Bulletin.pdf.
(2)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017,p.11,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(3)段建炜:《对特朗普推动情报改革的评估与预测》,载《情报杂志》2018年第3期,第6页。
(1)李峥:《特朗普,美以情报共享的终结者?》,载《世界知识》2017年第12期,第53页。
(3)“California’s‘Sanctuary’Laws aren’t Pro-Immigrant-and Local Leaders are Pushing Back,”May 18,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/californias-sanctuary-laws-arent-pro-immigrantlocal-leaders-pushing-back/.
(4)“Our Current Immigration System Jeopardizes American Security,”January 16,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/current-immigration-system-jeopardizes-american-security/.
(1)“Beyond the Caliphate:Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees,”The Soufan Group,October 24,2017,p.17.
(2)王悠然:《美国非法移民问题争论日趋激烈》,载《中国社会科学报》2018年2月9日,第003版。
(3)《美国2017财年财政赤字创2013年来新高》,新华网,2017年10月21日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2017-10/21/c_1121836189.htm。
(4)《特朗普:无论如何要建边境墙将终止北美自贸协定》,人民日报海外网,2017年8月23日,http://news.haiwainet.cn/n/2017/0823/c3541093-31083035.html。
(5)《特朗普开始向美墨边境派兵250人72小时内将抵达》,人民日报海外网,2018年4月7日,http://news.haiwainet.cn/n/2018/0407/c3541093-31293313.html。
(1)Gideon Rachman,“Trump,Islam and the Clash of Civilisations,”Financial Times,February13,2017,https://www.ft.com/content/18eb6c9e-eee2-11e6-930f-061b01e23655.
(2)Angshuman Choudhury and Husanjot Chahal,“Donald Trump’s Counter-Terrorism Policy,”January 18,2017,http://www.ipcs.org/article/terrorism/donald-trumps-counter-terrorism-policy-5223.html.
(1)“Donald Trump’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy Urges Allies to Do More,”Draft Shows,May 6,2017,http://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/donald-trumps-counter-terrorism-strategy-urgesallies-to-do-more-draft-shows.
(1)The White House,National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017pp.2-7,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
(2)Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America,p.1,https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.
(3)Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America,p.2,https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf.
(4)The White House,National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America,October 2018,p.10,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NSCT.pdf.
(6)The White House,National Strategy for Counterterrorism of the United States of America,October 2018,p.5,https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NSCT.pdf.
(7)王震、王天禅:《美国新反恐战略“新”在何处》,载《世界知识》2018年第21期,第54页。
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