The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoonsimulated by a weakly coupled data assimilation system
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摘要
为了改进耦合模式对东亚夏季风的模拟,本文发展了一个基于中国科学院地球系统模式的海洋资料同化系统。基于该同化系统,本文开展了同化观测海温的试验,并将同化试验的结果与传统的AMIP试验进行比较。结果表明,同化系统显著改进了对西北太平洋地区降水的气候态和季节循环、与ENSO和东亚夏季风相关联的东亚地区的降水和环流异常等的模拟。本文的工作表明,海气相互作用对东亚夏季风的模拟非常重要。耦合框架下的海洋资料同化系统可以在引入观测信息的同时不切断海气相互作用,这是同化试验较之AMIP试验有显著改进的原因所在。
With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.
With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.
引文
Adler,R.F.,G.Hu?man,A.Chang,R.Ferraro,P.Xie,J.Janowiak,B.Rudolf,et al.2003.“The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)Monthly Precipitation Analysis(1979-Present)”.Journal of Hydrometeorology 4:1147-1167.doi:10.1175/1525-7541-(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
Bengtsson,L.,U.Schlese,E.Roeckner,M.Latif,T.Barnett,and N.Graham.1993.“A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting.”Science 261(5124):1026-1029.doi:10.1126/science.261.5124.1026.
Briegleb,B.,C.Bitz,E.Hunke,W.Lipscomb,M.Holland,J.Schramm,and R.Moritz.2004:Scienti?c Description of the Sea Ice Component in the Community Climate System Model,Version Three,Tech.Rep.NCAR/TN-463_STR,78.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Dickinson,R.,K.Oleson,G.Bonan,F.Ho?man,P.Thornton,M.Vertenstein,Z.Yang,and X.Zeng.2006.“The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model”.Journal of Climate19:2302-2324.doi:10.1175/JCLI3742.1.
Dong,X.,F.Fan,R.Lin,J.Jin,and R.Lian.2017.“Simulation of the Western North Paci?c Subtropical High in El Ni(N)ODecaying Summers by CMIP5 AGCMs.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 10(2):146-155.doi:10.1080/16742834.2017.1272404.
Dong,X.,T.Su,J.Wang,and R.Lin.2014.“Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model(CAS-ESM-C).”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 7(2):110-114.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061.
Dong,X.,and F.Xue.2016.“Phase Transition of the Paci?c Decadal Oscillation and Decadal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 20th Century.Adv.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33(3):330-338.doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5130-7.
Dong,X.,F.Xue,and Q.Zeng.2014.“Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of the Decadal Variation Inthe Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Icelandic Low during Boreal Winter.”Climatic and Environmental Research 19(5):523-535.in Chinese.
Dong,X.,F.Xue,H.Zhang,and Q.Zeng.2012.“:Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 5(5):435-438.doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11447031.
Evensen,G.2003.“The Ensemble Kalman Filter:Theoretical Formulation and Practical Implementation.”Ocean Dynamics 53:343-367.doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9.
Fu,X.,B.Wang,and T.Li.2002.“Impacts of Air-Sea Coupling on the Simulation of Mean Asian Summer Monsoon in the ECHAM4 Model.”Monthly Weather Review 130:2889-2904.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2889:IOASCO>2.0.CO;2.
Good,S.A.,M.J.Martin,and N.A.Rayner.2013.“EN4:Quality Controlled Ocean Temperature and Salinity Pro?les and Monthly Objective Analyses with Uncertainty Estimates.”Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans 118:6704-6716.doi:10.1002/2013JC009067.
Huang,B.,W.T.Peter,V.F.Banzon,T.Boyer,G.Chepurin,J.H.Lawrimore,M.J.Menne,T.M.Smith,R.S.Vose,and H.M.Zhang.2017.“Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 5(Ersstv5):Upgrades,Validations,and Intercomparisons.”Journal of Climate 30:8179-8205.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
Hu?man,G.J.,R.Adler,P.Arkin,A.Chang,R.Ferraro,A.Gruber,J.Janowiak,A.McNab,B.Rudolf,and U.Schneider.1997.“The Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)Combined Precipitation Dataset.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(1):5-20.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0005:TGPCPG>2.0.CO;2.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven,L.Gandin,M.Iredell,et al.1996.“The NCEP/NCAR40 Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3):437-471.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Kanamitsu,M.,A.Kumar,H.Juang,J.Schemm,W.Wang,F.Yang,S.Hong,et al.2002.“NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000[J].”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(7):1019-1037.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1019:NDSFS>2.3.CO;2.
Lin,R.,J.Zhu,and F.Zheng.2016.“Decadal Shifts of East Asian Summer Monsoon in a Climate Model Free of Explicit GHGs and Aerosols.”Scienti?c Reports 6:38546.doi:10.1038/srep38546.
Liu,H.,X.Zhang,W.Li,Y.Yu,and R.Yu.2004.“An Eddy-Permitting Oceanic General Circulation Model and Its Preliminary Evaluation.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21(5):675-690.doi:10.1007/BF02916365.
Oke,P.R.,G.B.Brassington,D.A.Gri?n,and A.Schiller.2008.“The Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System(BODAS).”Ocean Modelling 21:46-70.doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.11.002.
Oleson,K.,Y.Dai,G.Bonan,M.Bosilovich,R.Dickinson,P.Dirmeyer,F.Ho?man,et al.2004.Technical Description of the Community Land Model(CLM),Tech.Rep.NCAR/TN-461 STR,174.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Palmer,T.,A.Alessandri,U.Andersen,P.Cantelaube,M.Davey,P.Délécluse,M.Déqué,et al.2004.“Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction(DEMETER)[J].”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85(6):853-872.doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
Reynolds,R.W.,T.M.Smith,C.Liu,D.B.Chelton,K.S.Casey,and M.G.Schlax.2007.“Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature.”Journal of Climate20:5473-5496.doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1.
Saha,S.,S.Nadiga,C.Thiaw,and J.Wang.2006.“The NCEPClimate Forecast System[J].”Journal of Climate 19(15):3483-3517.doi:10.1175/JCLI3812.1.
Song,F.,and T.Zhou.2014a.“Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5AGCMs:Skill Dependence on Indian Ocean-Western Paci?c Anticyclone Teleconnection.”Journal of Climate 27:1679-1697.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00248.1.
Song,F.,and T.Zhou.2014b.“The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models:Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?”Journal of Climate 27:8761-8777.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00396.1.
Su,T.,F.Xue,H.Sun,and G.Zhou.2015.“The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Cycle Simulated by the Climate System Model of Chinese Academy of Sciences.”Acta Oceanologica Sinica 34(1):55-65.doi:10.1007/s13131-015-0596-9.
Su,T.,F.Xue,and H.Zhang.2014.“Simulating the Intraseasonal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon by IAP AGCM4.0.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31:570-580.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3029-8.
Sun,H.,G.Zhou,and Q.Zeng.2012.“Assessments of the Climate System Model(CAS-ESM-C)Using IAP AGCM4 as Its Atmospheric Component.”Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36(2):215-233.in Chinese.
Taylor,K.E.,D.Williamson,and F.Zwiers,2000.The Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Concentration Boundary Conditions for AMIP II Simulations PCMDI Report No.60,25.Livermore,California:Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Wang,B.2006.The Asian Monsoon.Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
Wang,B.,Q.Ding,X.Fu,I.Kang,K.Jin,J.Shukla,and F.Doblas-Reyes.2005.“Fundamental Challenge in Simulation and Prediction of Summer Monsoon rainfall.Geophys.”Research Letters 32(15):291-310.doi:10.1029/2005GL022734.
Wang,B.,I.S.Kang,and J.Y.Lee.2004.“Ensemble Simulations of AsianAustralian Monsoon Variability by 11 AGCMs.”Journal of Climate 17:803-818.doi:10.1175/1520-0442-(2004)017<0803:ESOAMV>2.0.CO;2.
Zhang,H.,M.Zhang,and Q.Zeng.2013.“Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Two Atmospheric Models:Interpretation of Di?erences between Dry Models and Moist Models.”Monthly Weather Review 141:1558-1576.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00367.1.
Zheng,F.,and J.Zhu.2008.“Balanced Multivariate Model Errors of an Intermediate Coupled Model for Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation.”Journal of Geophysical Research 113:C07002.doi:10.1029/2007JC004621.
Zheng,F.,and J.Zhu.2010.“Coupled Assimilation for an Intermediated Coupled ENSO Prediction Model.”Ocean Dynamics 60.doi:10.1007/s10236-010-0307-1.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,R.-H.Zhang,and G.-Q.Zhou.2006.“Improved ENSO Forecasts by Assimilating Sea Surface Temperature Observations into an Intermediate Coupled Model.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 23(4):615-624.doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0615-z.
Zou,L.,D.Li,T.Zhou,and B.Wu.2018.“Summer rainfall-SSTRelationships in the Western North Paci?c Simulated by the FGOALS Model with Ocean Assimilation.”Climatic and Environmental Research(In Chinese)23(2):139-149.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17006.
Zou,L.,and T.Zhou.2013.“Can a Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Improve the Simulation of the Interannual Variability of the Western North Paci?c Summer Monsoon?”Journal of Climate 26(7):2353-2367.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1.
Bengtsson,L.,U.Schlese,E.Roeckner,M.Latif,T.Barnett,and N.Graham.1993.“A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting.”Science 261(5124):1026-1029.doi:10.1126/science.261.5124.1026.
Briegleb,B.,C.Bitz,E.Hunke,W.Lipscomb,M.Holland,J.Schramm,and R.Moritz.2004:Scienti?c Description of the Sea Ice Component in the Community Climate System Model,Version Three,Tech.Rep.NCAR/TN-463_STR,78.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Dickinson,R.,K.Oleson,G.Bonan,F.Ho?man,P.Thornton,M.Vertenstein,Z.Yang,and X.Zeng.2006.“The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model”.Journal of Climate19:2302-2324.doi:10.1175/JCLI3742.1.
Dong,X.,F.Fan,R.Lin,J.Jin,and R.Lian.2017.“Simulation of the Western North Paci?c Subtropical High in El Ni(N)ODecaying Summers by CMIP5 AGCMs.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 10(2):146-155.doi:10.1080/16742834.2017.1272404.
Dong,X.,T.Su,J.Wang,and R.Lin.2014.“Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model(CAS-ESM-C).”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 7(2):110-114.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061.
Dong,X.,and F.Xue.2016.“Phase Transition of the Paci?c Decadal Oscillation and Decadal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 20th Century.Adv.”Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33(3):330-338.doi:10.1007/s00376-015-5130-7.
Dong,X.,F.Xue,and Q.Zeng.2014.“Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of the Decadal Variation Inthe Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Icelandic Low during Boreal Winter.”Climatic and Environmental Research 19(5):523-535.in Chinese.
Dong,X.,F.Xue,H.Zhang,and Q.Zeng.2012.“:Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0.”Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 5(5):435-438.doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11447031.
Evensen,G.2003.“The Ensemble Kalman Filter:Theoretical Formulation and Practical Implementation.”Ocean Dynamics 53:343-367.doi:10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9.
Fu,X.,B.Wang,and T.Li.2002.“Impacts of Air-Sea Coupling on the Simulation of Mean Asian Summer Monsoon in the ECHAM4 Model.”Monthly Weather Review 130:2889-2904.doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2889:IOASCO>2.0.CO;2.
Good,S.A.,M.J.Martin,and N.A.Rayner.2013.“EN4:Quality Controlled Ocean Temperature and Salinity Pro?les and Monthly Objective Analyses with Uncertainty Estimates.”Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans 118:6704-6716.doi:10.1002/2013JC009067.
Huang,B.,W.T.Peter,V.F.Banzon,T.Boyer,G.Chepurin,J.H.Lawrimore,M.J.Menne,T.M.Smith,R.S.Vose,and H.M.Zhang.2017.“Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 5(Ersstv5):Upgrades,Validations,and Intercomparisons.”Journal of Climate 30:8179-8205.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
Hu?man,G.J.,R.Adler,P.Arkin,A.Chang,R.Ferraro,A.Gruber,J.Janowiak,A.McNab,B.Rudolf,and U.Schneider.1997.“The Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP)Combined Precipitation Dataset.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(1):5-20.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0005:TGPCPG>2.0.CO;2.
Kalnay,E.,M.Kanamitsu,R.Kistler,W.Collins,D.Deaven,L.Gandin,M.Iredell,et al.1996.“The NCEP/NCAR40 Year Reanalysis Project.”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3):437-471.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
Kanamitsu,M.,A.Kumar,H.Juang,J.Schemm,W.Wang,F.Yang,S.Hong,et al.2002.“NCEP Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000[J].”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(7):1019-1037.doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<1019:NDSFS>2.3.CO;2.
Lin,R.,J.Zhu,and F.Zheng.2016.“Decadal Shifts of East Asian Summer Monsoon in a Climate Model Free of Explicit GHGs and Aerosols.”Scienti?c Reports 6:38546.doi:10.1038/srep38546.
Liu,H.,X.Zhang,W.Li,Y.Yu,and R.Yu.2004.“An Eddy-Permitting Oceanic General Circulation Model and Its Preliminary Evaluation.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21(5):675-690.doi:10.1007/BF02916365.
Oke,P.R.,G.B.Brassington,D.A.Gri?n,and A.Schiller.2008.“The Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System(BODAS).”Ocean Modelling 21:46-70.doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.11.002.
Oleson,K.,Y.Dai,G.Bonan,M.Bosilovich,R.Dickinson,P.Dirmeyer,F.Ho?man,et al.2004.Technical Description of the Community Land Model(CLM),Tech.Rep.NCAR/TN-461 STR,174.Boulder,CO:National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Palmer,T.,A.Alessandri,U.Andersen,P.Cantelaube,M.Davey,P.Délécluse,M.Déqué,et al.2004.“Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction(DEMETER)[J].”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85(6):853-872.doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853.
Reynolds,R.W.,T.M.Smith,C.Liu,D.B.Chelton,K.S.Casey,and M.G.Schlax.2007.“Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature.”Journal of Climate20:5473-5496.doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1.
Saha,S.,S.Nadiga,C.Thiaw,and J.Wang.2006.“The NCEPClimate Forecast System[J].”Journal of Climate 19(15):3483-3517.doi:10.1175/JCLI3812.1.
Song,F.,and T.Zhou.2014a.“Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5AGCMs:Skill Dependence on Indian Ocean-Western Paci?c Anticyclone Teleconnection.”Journal of Climate 27:1679-1697.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00248.1.
Song,F.,and T.Zhou.2014b.“The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models:Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?”Journal of Climate 27:8761-8777.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00396.1.
Su,T.,F.Xue,H.Sun,and G.Zhou.2015.“The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Cycle Simulated by the Climate System Model of Chinese Academy of Sciences.”Acta Oceanologica Sinica 34(1):55-65.doi:10.1007/s13131-015-0596-9.
Su,T.,F.Xue,and H.Zhang.2014.“Simulating the Intraseasonal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon by IAP AGCM4.0.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 31:570-580.doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3029-8.
Sun,H.,G.Zhou,and Q.Zeng.2012.“Assessments of the Climate System Model(CAS-ESM-C)Using IAP AGCM4 as Its Atmospheric Component.”Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36(2):215-233.in Chinese.
Taylor,K.E.,D.Williamson,and F.Zwiers,2000.The Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Concentration Boundary Conditions for AMIP II Simulations PCMDI Report No.60,25.Livermore,California:Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Wang,B.2006.The Asian Monsoon.Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
Wang,B.,Q.Ding,X.Fu,I.Kang,K.Jin,J.Shukla,and F.Doblas-Reyes.2005.“Fundamental Challenge in Simulation and Prediction of Summer Monsoon rainfall.Geophys.”Research Letters 32(15):291-310.doi:10.1029/2005GL022734.
Wang,B.,I.S.Kang,and J.Y.Lee.2004.“Ensemble Simulations of AsianAustralian Monsoon Variability by 11 AGCMs.”Journal of Climate 17:803-818.doi:10.1175/1520-0442-(2004)017<0803:ESOAMV>2.0.CO;2.
Zhang,H.,M.Zhang,and Q.Zeng.2013.“Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Two Atmospheric Models:Interpretation of Di?erences between Dry Models and Moist Models.”Monthly Weather Review 141:1558-1576.doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00367.1.
Zheng,F.,and J.Zhu.2008.“Balanced Multivariate Model Errors of an Intermediate Coupled Model for Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation.”Journal of Geophysical Research 113:C07002.doi:10.1029/2007JC004621.
Zheng,F.,and J.Zhu.2010.“Coupled Assimilation for an Intermediated Coupled ENSO Prediction Model.”Ocean Dynamics 60.doi:10.1007/s10236-010-0307-1.
Zheng,F.,J.Zhu,R.-H.Zhang,and G.-Q.Zhou.2006.“Improved ENSO Forecasts by Assimilating Sea Surface Temperature Observations into an Intermediate Coupled Model.”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 23(4):615-624.doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0615-z.
Zou,L.,D.Li,T.Zhou,and B.Wu.2018.“Summer rainfall-SSTRelationships in the Western North Paci?c Simulated by the FGOALS Model with Ocean Assimilation.”Climatic and Environmental Research(In Chinese)23(2):139-149.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17006.
Zou,L.,and T.Zhou.2013.“Can a Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Improve the Simulation of the Interannual Variability of the Western North Paci?c Summer Monsoon?”Journal of Climate 26(7):2353-2367.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1.
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