货币政策与物流产业结构优化——基于2000-2017年省际面板数据
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摘要
利用2000-2017年中国省际面板数据,采用动态面板模型、混合面板模型实证检验了我国货币政策对物流产业结构优化的作用,研究结果表明:从全国范围来看,货币政策显著影响了我国物流产业结构优化升级。紧缩性货币政策对物流产业结构调整具有倒逼效应,对扩张性货币政策促进物流产业结构优化升级具有正向引导作用。而分区域看,货币政策的作用效果存在差异。扩张性与紧缩性货币政策调控对于中西部地区物流产业发展的影响作用比东部都要大。就空间溢出效应而言,扩张性与紧缩性货币政策对于各地区物流产业发展的影响具有区域化溢出效应。同时,区域物流产业结构和货币政策存在空间外部性,影响周边区域物流产业结构布局和调整。上述结论有着重要的政策含义,即我国在经济转型升级进程中,各级政府应逐步提高货币政策强度,调整和优化物流产业结构,结合各地区经济发展的实际水平和金融发展程度有针对性地制定差异化的货币政策。在借助货币政策促进物流区域产业结构优化的同时,应进一步深化区域间货币政策与物流产业联动效能的协调与合作,形成共赢的合理化物流产业结构空间格局。
This paper, by using Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017, using dynamic panel model, hybrid panel model empirically the role in optimizing the structure of the monetary policy of logistics industry in China, the research results show that the nationwide, monetary policy has significant impact on the logistics optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in our country.Tight monetary policy has reversed transmission effect on logistics industry structure adjustment, the expansionary monetary policy to promote logistics optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has a positive guiding role.And see areas, the effect of monetary policy.Dilated and tight monetary policy for the development of logistics industry in the Midwest effect is bigger than the east.In terms of spatial spillover effects, expansionary and tight monetary policy to influence on the development of the regional logistics industry has a regional spillover effects.At the same time, the regional logistics industry structure and monetary policy space externality, affect peripheral regional logistics layout and industrial structure adjustment.This conclusion has important policy implications, that is, in the process of economic transformation and upgrading in China, the governments at various levels shall gradually increase the intensity of monetary policy, adjust and optimize the structure of the logistics industry, combining the actual level of regional economic development and financial development degree targeted differentiation of monetary policy.In using monetary policy to promote logistics area industrial structure optimization at the same time, should further deepen the regional monetary policy and logistics industry linkage between the efficiency of the coordination and cooperation, forming a win-win to rationalize logistics spatial pattern of industrial structure.
This paper, by using Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017, using dynamic panel model, hybrid panel model empirically the role in optimizing the structure of the monetary policy of logistics industry in China, the research results show that the nationwide, monetary policy has significant impact on the logistics optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in our country.Tight monetary policy has reversed transmission effect on logistics industry structure adjustment, the expansionary monetary policy to promote logistics optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has a positive guiding role.And see areas, the effect of monetary policy.Dilated and tight monetary policy for the development of logistics industry in the Midwest effect is bigger than the east.In terms of spatial spillover effects, expansionary and tight monetary policy to influence on the development of the regional logistics industry has a regional spillover effects.At the same time, the regional logistics industry structure and monetary policy space externality, affect peripheral regional logistics layout and industrial structure adjustment.This conclusion has important policy implications, that is, in the process of economic transformation and upgrading in China, the governments at various levels shall gradually increase the intensity of monetary policy, adjust and optimize the structure of the logistics industry, combining the actual level of regional economic development and financial development degree targeted differentiation of monetary policy.In using monetary policy to promote logistics area industrial structure optimization at the same time, should further deepen the regional monetary policy and logistics industry linkage between the efficiency of the coordination and cooperation, forming a win-win to rationalize logistics spatial pattern of industrial structure.
引文
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[17]朱新蓉,李虹含.货币政策传导的企业资产负债表渠道有效吗——基于2007-2013中国数据的实证检验[J].金融研究,2013,42(10):113-116.
[18]侯杜娟.货币政策对三次产业的影响效应分析——基于货币供给量的实证分析[J].西安财经学院学报,2015,28(4):48-53.
[19]吉红云,干杏娣.我国货币政策的产业发展效应——基于上市公司的面板数据分析[J].上海经济研究,2017,35(2):154-159.
[20]陆正飞,杨德明.商业信用:替代性融资,还是买方市场[J].管理世界, 2015,45(4):6-14.
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[22]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2010:141-143.
[23]LUCIANO.Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,159(2):269-295.
[24]张旭,伍海华.论产业发展中的金融因素——机制、模式与政策选择[J].当代财经,2002,37 (10):53-58.
[25]西蒙·库兹涅茨.现代经济增长[M].戴睿,易诚,译.北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989:34-60.
[26]王静.物流战略成本管理的创新模式与绩效评估研究[J].现代管理科学,2013,45(9):104-106.
[27]陈恒,魏修建,杜勤.“一带一路”物流业发展驱动因素的动态轨迹演变[J].上海财经大学学报,2017,34 (2):31-43.
[2]乐小兵.现代物流与产业结构升级关联机制研究[J].物流技术,2015,32(4):198-200.
[3]高秀丽,孟飞荣.物流业发展对产业结构优化的实证分析——基于空间面板模型[J].热带地理,2017,33(6):703-710.
[4]宋华,贾景姿.全球供应链模型构建及相关研究述评[J].商业研究,2017,28(2):170-177.
[5]MUNDELL R A.A theory economic of optimum currency areas[J].American Review,1961(51):657-665.
[6]AARLE B V.Russia from bust to boom and back:Oil price,dutch disease and stabilisation fund[J].Comparative Economic Studies, 2009,51(2):213-241.
[7]PEERSMAN G,SMETS F.The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area:more evidence from VAR analysis (MTN conference paper) [M].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2010:143-148.
[8]BERNANKE B,MARK G.Inside the black box:The credit channel of monetary policy transmission[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995(9):27-48.
[9]SALMON G.Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification[J].Journal of Economic Theory,1997(21):265–293.
[10]UHLENBROCK H.Agency costs,net worth, and business fluctuations[J].American Economic Review,2014(79):14–31.
[11]UHLENBROCK.A theory of debt based on the inalienability of human capital[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2015,109(4):841–879.
[12]HAYO,HIROYUKI.Exploring aggregate asset price fluctuations across countries[J].BIS Economic Papers,2015(40):309–340.
[13]丁文丽.转轨时期中国货币政策效力的区域差异研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2005:93-97.
[14]卢盛荣,李文溥.中国货币政策的产业非对称效应研究[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,38(2):126-129.
[15]曹小衡,张敬庭,刘雪燕.中国货币政策效果非对称性——基于AS-AD模型的研究[J].山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,31(2):86-93.
[16]曹永琴.货币政策效果解析:非对称效应的成因和机制[M].北京:商务印书馆,2011:158-162.
[17]朱新蓉,李虹含.货币政策传导的企业资产负债表渠道有效吗——基于2007-2013中国数据的实证检验[J].金融研究,2013,42(10):113-116.
[18]侯杜娟.货币政策对三次产业的影响效应分析——基于货币供给量的实证分析[J].西安财经学院学报,2015,28(4):48-53.
[19]吉红云,干杏娣.我国货币政策的产业发展效应——基于上市公司的面板数据分析[J].上海经济研究,2017,35(2):154-159.
[20]陆正飞,杨德明.商业信用:替代性融资,还是买方市场[J].管理世界, 2015,45(4):6-14.
[21]陈耿,包燕萍.货币政策波动、区域金融发展及盈余管理——基于中国上市公司数据[J].现代财经,2017,27(9):79-84.
[22]樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2010:141-143.
[23]LUCIANO.Shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economic policy[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,159(2):269-295.
[24]张旭,伍海华.论产业发展中的金融因素——机制、模式与政策选择[J].当代财经,2002,37 (10):53-58.
[25]西蒙·库兹涅茨.现代经济增长[M].戴睿,易诚,译.北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989:34-60.
[26]王静.物流战略成本管理的创新模式与绩效评估研究[J].现代管理科学,2013,45(9):104-106.
[27]陈恒,魏修建,杜勤.“一带一路”物流业发展驱动因素的动态轨迹演变[J].上海财经大学学报,2017,34 (2):31-43.
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