英国干涉中国在南海维权:前瞻与预防
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摘要
对华战略博弈的政治需求、提升英国在亚太影响力的安全需求、彰显全球性大国地位的心理需求,共同构成了英国干涉中国在南海维权的主要动机。英国通过中英战略对话对中方立场进行外交试探,利用香格里拉对话会了解各方政策走向和南海问题的发展趋势,并可能借助同盟友的合作既实现在南海的军事存在又避免过分刺激中国。此外,五国联防组织的存在构成了英国驻军亚太的法理基础,七国集团则为英国在南海搅局提供了机制保障。中国应冷静观察和分析英国在南海问题上的各种动向,在坚决反对英国成为南海问题新的域外国家因素的同时,也要有意识地利用英国分化西方阵营。
The UK's motives for intervening China's safeguarding its legal rights in the South China Sea specify three demands, including political demands for the UK's strategic games with China, security demands for enhancing the UK's influences in the Asia-Pacific Region, and psychological demands for demonstrating the UK's global power status. The UK has been conducting diplomatic exploration of China's position through the China-UK strategic dialogue, using Shangri-La Dialogue to understand the policy trends of all parties as well as developing trends of the South China Sea issue, and also may seek existing military presence in the South China Sea while avoiding stimulating China by co-operating with its allies and partners. With the help of FPDA and G7 mechanisms, the UK can establish its military presence in the Asia-Pacific Region legally, while involving in the South China Sea issue. On the basis of observing and analyzing the UK's various movements on the South China Sea issue calmly, China must resist any possibility that the UK emerges as the new great power beyond the South China Sea region resolutely.
The UK's motives for intervening China's safeguarding its legal rights in the South China Sea specify three demands, including political demands for the UK's strategic games with China, security demands for enhancing the UK's influences in the Asia-Pacific Region, and psychological demands for demonstrating the UK's global power status. The UK has been conducting diplomatic exploration of China's position through the China-UK strategic dialogue, using Shangri-La Dialogue to understand the policy trends of all parties as well as developing trends of the South China Sea issue, and also may seek existing military presence in the South China Sea while avoiding stimulating China by co-operating with its allies and partners. With the help of FPDA and G7 mechanisms, the UK can establish its military presence in the Asia-Pacific Region legally, while involving in the South China Sea issue. On the basis of observing and analyzing the UK's various movements on the South China Sea issue calmly, China must resist any possibility that the UK emerges as the new great power beyond the South China Sea region resolutely.
引文
(1)Philip Hammond, “Foreign Secretary’s Speech on the UK in Asia Pacific”, HM Government, 30 January 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretarys-speech-on-the-uk-in-asia-pacific; Ridzwan Rahmat, “UK Prepared to Deploy Military Assets to Support FPDA in Event of Future Asia-Pacific Crises, Says Foreign Secretary”, IHS Jane’s 360, 2 February 2015, http://www.janes.com/article/48537/uk-prepared-to-deploy-military-assets-to-support-fpda-in-event-of-future-asia-pacific-crises-says-foreign-secretary.
(2)Michael Fallon, “Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore’s 50th Birthday”, HM Government, 1 June 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/shangri-la-dialogue-singapores-50th-birthday.
(3)Gavin Williamson, “Defence Secretary at Atlantic Council”, HM Government, 8 August 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-at-atlantic-council.
(4)UK Foreign﹠Commonwealth Office, “Second Japan-UK Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting”, HM Government, 8 January 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/second-japan-uk-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-meeting.
(5)Jon Sharman, “UK to Send Royal Navy Warship Through Disputed South China Sea in Challenge to Beijing”, Independent, 13 February 2018, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/uk-south-china-sea-royal-navy-warship-beijing-hms-sutherland-gavin-williamson-trump-us-australia-a8208016.html.
(6)同①。
(7)“G7 Foreign Ministers’ Declaration on Maritime Security Lübeck, April 15”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000076378.pdf.
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(37)Emanuele Scimia, “UK Must Rely on Allies to Project Power in Pacific”, Asia Times, August 13, 2018, http://www.atimes.com/uk-must-rely-on-allies-to-project-power-in-pacific/.
(38)Hugo Swire, “Pacific Partnership-the UK and US in Asia”, HM Government, 19 April 2016,https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pacific-partnership-the-uk-and-us-in-asia; Reuters, “China Angered by Britain’s Comment that the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling Must be Binding”, The Straits Times, April 20, 2016,http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-angered-by-britains-comment-that-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling-must-be.
(39)Sean Keeley, “UK to Challenge China in the South China Sea”, The American Interest, July 28, 2017,https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/27/uk-challenge-china-south-china-sea/.
(40)Charissa Yong, “France Urges All to Abide by International Law in S. China Sea”, The Straits Times, June 4, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/france-urges-all-to-abide-by-international-law-in-s-china-sea.
(41)“France to Send Aircraft Carrier to Indian Ocean Next Year”, The Times of India, October 20, 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/france-to-send-aircraft-carrier-to-indian-ocean-next-year/articleshow/66296030.cms.
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(46)同④。
(47)Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.20.
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(51)同①, p.92。
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(1)笔者所见,目前国内外对当前英国干涉中国在南海维权的关注都比较少,中国学者主要在以欧盟为研究对象的文章中对该问题有所提及,如邢瑞利、刘艳峰:“欧盟干涉中国南海维权:路径、动因与前景”,《现代国际关系》,2016年第5期;苏晓晖:“欧盟不愿强势介入南海问题”,《太平洋学报》,2016年第7期;敬璇琳、刘金源:“务实主义的被动外交——欧盟南海政策的演进及未来走向”,《欧洲研究》,2018年第4期等;国外学者对该问题的研究也处于起步阶段,相关研究主要围绕英国在南海的利益维护与政策取向展开,它们对中国在南海的维权举措多持怀疑和批评态度,较有代表性的有:John Hemmings and James Rogers,The South China Sea:Why It Matters“Global Britain”,London:The Henry Jackson Society,2019; Jonathan Eyal,et al.,eds.,Partners for Global Security:New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship,London:Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies,2015,等。
(2)Michael Fallon, “Shangri-la Dialogue, Singapore’s 50th Birthday”, HM Government, 1 June 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/shangri-la-dialogue-singapores-50th-birthday.
(3)Gavin Williamson, “Defence Secretary at Atlantic Council”, HM Government, 8 August 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-at-atlantic-council.
(4)UK Foreign﹠Commonwealth Office, “Second Japan-UK Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting”, HM Government, 8 January 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/second-japan-uk-foreign-and-defence-ministerial-meeting.
(5)Jon Sharman, “UK to Send Royal Navy Warship Through Disputed South China Sea in Challenge to Beijing”, Independent, 13 February 2018, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/uk-south-china-sea-royal-navy-warship-beijing-hms-sutherland-gavin-williamson-trump-us-australia-a8208016.html.
(6)同①。
(7)“G7 Foreign Ministers’ Declaration on Maritime Security Lübeck, April 15”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000076378.pdf.
(8)“G7 Leaders Express ‘Concern’ about East and South China Sea Disputes in Closing Statement”, South China Morning Post, 27 May, 2016, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1956243/g7-leaders-express-concern-about-east-and-south-china-sea-disputes; “G7 Taormina Leaders’ Communiqué”,http://www.g7italy.it/sites/default/files/documents/G7%20Taormina%20Leaders%27%20Communique_27052017_0.pdf; “The Charlevoix G7 Summit Communiqué”, https://g7.gc.ca/en/official-documents/charlevoix-g7-summit-communique/; “外交部发言人陆慷就七国集团峰会联合公报涉及东海、南海问题答记者问”,外交部官网,2017年5月28日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/dhdw_673027/t1465917.shtml。
(9)“G7 Foreign Ministers’ Communiqué”, April 23, 2018,https://g7.gc.ca/en/g7-presidency/themes/building-peaceful-secure-world/g7-ministerial-meeting/g7-foreign-ministers-joint-communique/;“2018年4月25日外交部发言人陆慷主持例行记者会”,外交部官网,2018年4月25日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/t1554285.shtml。
(10)日本航空幕僚監部,“航空自衛隊及び英空軍による共同発表について”,http://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/H28/1102.pdf ;日本航空幕僚監部,“日英共同訓練の詳細について”,http://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/H28/1014.pdf;British Embassy Tokyo, “Announcement: RAF Typhoon Aircraft to Visit Japan”, HM Government, 16 September 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/announcement-raf-typhoon-aircraft-to-visit-japan。
(11)Haven Daley and Audrey McAvoy, “France Leads Guam Military Exercises Amid China Sea Fears”, Defense News, May 11, 2017, https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-military/2017/05/12/france-leads-guam-military-exercises-amid-china-sea-fears/.
(12)Royal Navy, “Royal, US and Japanese Navies Pledge Closer Cooperation Around the Globe”, Royal Navy, 24 October, 2016, http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2016/october/24/161024-tri-lateral-agreement; “2016 Trilateral Maritime Talks”,http://www.navy.mil/navydata/people/cno/Richardson/Message/CNO_US_Japan_UK_2016_Trilateral_Agreement.pdf.
(13)Steven Stashwick, “US, UK, and Japan Navies Sign First Ever Trilateral Cooperation Agreement”, the Diplomat, November 1, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/us-uk-and-japan-navies-sign-first-ever-trilateral-cooperation-agreement/.
(14)Ben Doherty, “Britain’s New Aircraft Carriers to Test Beijing in South China Sea”, the Guardian, 27 July 2017,https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/27/britains-new-aircraft-carriers-to-test-beijing-in-south-china-sea.
(15)Colin Packham, “Britain Plans to Send Warship to South China Sea in Move Likely to Irk Beijing”, Reuters, July 27, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-britain-idUSKBN1AC1CB?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%207.27.17&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Military%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief.
(16)Severin Carrell, “South China Sea: UK Could Send Aircraft Carrier to Back Australian Vessels”, the Guardian, 20 July 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/21/south-china-sea-uk-could-send-aircraft-carrier-to-back-australian-vessels.
(17)Australian Associated Press, “Australian Warships ‘Challenged’ by Chinese Navy in South China Sea”, the Guardian, 19 April 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/20/australian-warships-challenged-by-chinese-navy-in-south-china-sea.
(18)Sean Keeley, “UK to Challenge China in the South China Sea”, The American Interest, July 28, 2017, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/27/uk-challenge-china-south-china-sea/.
(19)Gavin Williamson, “Raising the Bar for Regional Security Cooperation”, HM Government, 6 June 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/raising-the-bar-for-regional-security-cooperation; Joshua Nevett, “Britain Deploys Three Warships to South China Sea to ‘Send Strongest Signals’”, Daily Star, 3 June 2018, https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/707108/royal-navy-warships-south-china-sea-north-korea-gavin-williamson-mattis.
(20)Tim Kelly, “Exclusive: British Navy Warship Sails Near South China Sea Islands, Angering Beijing”, Reuters, September 6, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-china-southchinasea-exclusive/exclusive-british-navy-warship-sails-near-south-china-sea-islands-angering-beijing-idUSKCN1LM017.
(21)“2018年9月6日外交部发言人华春莹主持例行记者会”,外交部官网,2018年9月6日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/t1592689.shtml。
(22)“British Fighters to Overfly South China Sea; Carriers in Pacific After 2020-Envoy”, The Straits Times, Dec 3, 2016, http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/british-fighters-to-overfly-south-china-sea-carriers-in-pacific-after-2020-envoy.
(23)Mark Field, “The UK and All of Asia, A Modern Partnership: Mark Field’s Speech”, HM Government, 14 August 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/minister-mark-field-speech-the-uk-and-all-of-asia-a-modern-partnership.
(24)“王毅应约会见英国外交大臣亨特”,外交部官网,2018年9月25日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/t1598290.shtml。
(25)“2018年10月24日外交部发言人华春莹主持例行记者会”,外交部官网,2018年10月24日,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/t1606756.shtml。
(26)HM Government, National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015: A Secure and Prosperous United Kingdom, London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2015, pp.9-11.
(27)HM Government, The UK National Strategy for Maritime Security, London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2014; HM Government, National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015: A Secure and Prosperous United Kingdom, London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2015.
(28)UK Foreign and Security Policy Working Group, Strengthening Britain’s Voice in the World: Report of the UK Foreign and Security Policy Working Group, November 2015, p.10, https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/20151103UKForeignSecurityWorkingGroupReport.pdf.
(29)Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.20.
(30)David Warren, “Does Britain Matter in East Asia?” Research Paper, Chatham House, 2014, Quoted in Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.17.
(31)参见辉明、廖大珂:“近代西方文献中的南海——海南人的家园”,《文史哲》,2015年第2期,第41-55页;房建昌:“近代南海诸岛海图史略——以英国海军海图官局及日本、美国、法国和德国近代测绘南沙群岛为中心(1685-1949年)”,《海南大学学报》(人文社会科学版),2013年第4期,第26-36页。
(32)郭渊:“20世纪30年代初中日法英对南沙战略作用的认知比较”,《海南热带海洋学院学报》,2017年第6期,第4页。
(33)郭渊:“冷战初期英国政府对南沙问题的讨论及立场”,《太平洋学报》,2018年第10期,第91-102页。
(34)韩永利、胡德坤:“20世纪70年代英国官方档案论证南沙群岛属于中国”,《边界与海洋研究》,2017年第3期,第107-116页。
(35)UK Foreign﹠Commonwealth Office, “Foreign Secretary Discusses Foreign Policy Priorities and Trade with China”, HM Government, 20 December 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-discusses-foreign-policy-priorities-and-trade-with-china.
(36)“第八次中英战略对话在伦敦举行”,外交部官网,2016年12月21日,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/xos_673625/xwlb_673627/t1425817.shtml。
(37)Emanuele Scimia, “UK Must Rely on Allies to Project Power in Pacific”, Asia Times, August 13, 2018, http://www.atimes.com/uk-must-rely-on-allies-to-project-power-in-pacific/.
(38)Hugo Swire, “Pacific Partnership-the UK and US in Asia”, HM Government, 19 April 2016,https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pacific-partnership-the-uk-and-us-in-asia; Reuters, “China Angered by Britain’s Comment that the South China Sea Arbitration Ruling Must be Binding”, The Straits Times, April 20, 2016,http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-angered-by-britains-comment-that-south-china-sea-arbitration-ruling-must-be.
(39)Sean Keeley, “UK to Challenge China in the South China Sea”, The American Interest, July 28, 2017,https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/27/uk-challenge-china-south-china-sea/.
(40)Charissa Yong, “France Urges All to Abide by International Law in S. China Sea”, The Straits Times, June 4, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/france-urges-all-to-abide-by-international-law-in-s-china-sea.
(41)“France to Send Aircraft Carrier to Indian Ocean Next Year”, The Times of India, October 20, 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/france-to-send-aircraft-carrier-to-indian-ocean-next-year/articleshow/66296030.cms.
(42)Jerry Lawton, “UK Warning to China: Royal Navy Boosts Operations in Far East Over Beijing Fears”, Daily Star, 10th September 2018, https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/728738/UK-China-Royal-Navy-South-China-Sea-Beijing-operations-Singapore.
(43)Christopher Hope, “Britain to Become ‘True Global Player’ Post-Brexit with Military Bases in South East Asia and Caribbean, Says Defence Secretary”, The Telegraph, 30 December 2018, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/; “UK to Establish New Overseas Military Bases After Brexit-Report”, Sputnik International, 30 December 2018, https://sputniknews.com/europe/201812301071108171-uk-overseas-military-base/.
(44)UK Foreign﹠Commonwealth Office, “PM Press Conference with PM Abe of Japan: 31 August 2017”, HM Government, 31 August 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-press-statement-in-tokyo.
(45)“Japan-UK Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation”, Tokyo, 31 August 2017,https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/641155/Japan-UK_Joint_Declaration_on_Security_Cooperation.pdf.
(46)同④。
(47)Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.20.
(48)Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Five Power Defence Arrangements: The Quiet Achiever”, Security Challenges, Vol.3, No.1, 2007, p.94.
(49)HM Government, National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015: A Secure and Prosperous United Kingdom, London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 2015, p.59.
(50)许利平:“南海争端与五国联防组织何干”,《青年参考》,2009年6月6日,http://qnck.cyol.com/content/2009-06/06/content_2698203.htm。
(51)同①, p.92。
(52)“Japan-UK Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation”, Tokyo, 31 August 2017,https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/641155/Japan-UK_Joint_Declaration_on_Security_Cooperation.pdf.
(53)Zhou Dong-chen and Du Hui-yan, “From the Golden Age to Natural Partner: Belt and Road Initiative Forging Sino-UK Relationship”, Modern Diplomacy, May 24, 2017, http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=2632:from-the-golden-age-to-natural-partner-belt-and-road-initiative-forging-sino-uk-relationship.
(54)Emanuele Scimia, “China Investments Make UK Think Twice about South China Sea”, Asia Times, December 13, 2016, http://www.atimes.com/article/china-investments-make-uk-think-twice-south-china-sea/.
(55)Emanuele Scimia, “China Investments Make UK Think Twice about South China Sea”, Asia Times, December 13, 2016, http://www.atimes.com/article/china-investments-make-uk-think-twice-south-china-sea/; Donald R. Rothwell, “No Brexit from the South China Sea”, East Asia Forum, 16 August 2017, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/08/16/no-brexit-from-the-south-china-sea/.
(56)Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.19.
(57)Daniel Keohane, “The EU’s Role in East Asian Security”, in Patryk Pawlak, eds., Look East, Act East: Transatlantic Agendas in the Asia Pacific, Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2012, p.49.
(58)Edward Schwarck, “Understanding the UK’s Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific”, in Jonathan Eyal, et al., eds., Partners for Global Security: New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, 2015, p.24; UK Ministry of Defence, “UK Armed Forces Equipment and Formations 2018”, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728241/UK_Armed_Forces_Equipment_and_Formations_2018.pdf.
(59)John Hemmings, “Are Japan and the UK Trading Places?” The National Interest, July 28, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/are-japan-the-uk-trading-places-17023.
(1)笔者所见,目前国内外对当前英国干涉中国在南海维权的关注都比较少,中国学者主要在以欧盟为研究对象的文章中对该问题有所提及,如邢瑞利、刘艳峰:“欧盟干涉中国南海维权:路径、动因与前景”,《现代国际关系》,2016年第5期;苏晓晖:“欧盟不愿强势介入南海问题”,《太平洋学报》,2016年第7期;敬璇琳、刘金源:“务实主义的被动外交——欧盟南海政策的演进及未来走向”,《欧洲研究》,2018年第4期等;国外学者对该问题的研究也处于起步阶段,相关研究主要围绕英国在南海的利益维护与政策取向展开,它们对中国在南海的维权举措多持怀疑和批评态度,较有代表性的有:John Hemmings and James Rogers,The South China Sea:Why It Matters“Global Britain”,London:The Henry Jackson Society,2019; Jonathan Eyal,et al.,eds.,Partners for Global Security:New Directions for the UK-Japan Defence and Security Relationship,London:Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies,2015,等。
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