近年来中国棉花贸易形势分析及展望
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摘要
近年来,在棉花支持政策调整和国内外棉价变动等因素作用下,中国棉花贸易由大量过度进口逐渐趋于平稳。分析了近年来中国棉花贸易形势与特点,探讨了棉花贸易变化的影响因素,最后对未来中国棉花贸易发展进行了展望。2015年以来的中国棉花进口量处于2004年以来最低水平,且保持相对稳定。近年来,中国棉花进口来源地较为集中,自美国和印度进口量变化较大;原棉进口下降,其他棉和棉纱的进口基本保持稳定。中国棉花贸易的变化主要是受棉花国内支持政策改革、棉花进口调控政策、棉花去库存及国内棉纺企业向东南亚转移等影响。总的来看,未来中国棉花进口将保持相对稳定,中美经贸摩擦对中国棉花进口的影响有限。
In recent years, due to the adjustment of cotton support policy and the fluctuation of cotton price at home and abroad, China's cotton trade has gradually stabilized from a large number of excessive imports. The authors analyzed the situation and characteristics of cotton trade in China in recent years, and discussed the influencing factors of cotton trade changes. Finally, the paper looked forward to the future development of cotton trade in China. China's cotton imports since 2015 has been the lowest level since 2004 and remain relatively stable. In recent years, source of cotton import in China are more concentrated, imports from the United States and India have changed considerably. The import of raw cotton has declined, while imports of other cotton and cotton yarns have remained basically stable. The change of cotton trade in China is mainly influenced by the reform of domestic support policy for cotton, the regulation and control policy of cotton import, the digestion of cotton high stock and the transfer of domestic cotton textile enterprises to Southeast Asia. Overall, China's cotton imports will remain relatively stable in the future, and the impact of China-US economic and trade friction on China's cotton imports will be limited.
In recent years, due to the adjustment of cotton support policy and the fluctuation of cotton price at home and abroad, China's cotton trade has gradually stabilized from a large number of excessive imports. The authors analyzed the situation and characteristics of cotton trade in China in recent years, and discussed the influencing factors of cotton trade changes. Finally, the paper looked forward to the future development of cotton trade in China. China's cotton imports since 2015 has been the lowest level since 2004 and remain relatively stable. In recent years, source of cotton import in China are more concentrated, imports from the United States and India have changed considerably. The import of raw cotton has declined, while imports of other cotton and cotton yarns have remained basically stable. The change of cotton trade in China is mainly influenced by the reform of domestic support policy for cotton, the regulation and control policy of cotton import, the digestion of cotton high stock and the transfer of domestic cotton textile enterprises to Southeast Asia. Overall, China's cotton imports will remain relatively stable in the future, and the impact of China-US economic and trade friction on China's cotton imports will be limited.
引文
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[2]农业农村部农业贸易促进中心.农产品贸易与农业供给侧结构性改革[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2018.
[3]朱满德,程国强.棉花目标价格补贴试点政策成效及完善建议[J].经济纵横,2017(11):90-96.
[4]翟雪玲,张杰.中国棉花产业供给侧结构性改革现状与展望[J].农业展望,2018(8):53-58.
[5]International Cotton Advisory Committee.Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections[R].Washington D.C,January 2,2019.
[6]OECD-FAO.OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027[M].Paris:OECD iLibrary,July 2018.
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