生态城镇化的人口—产业与生态协同演化机理研究——以江苏省城镇化为例
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摘要
[目的]生态城镇化是传统城镇化内涵式发展的必然趋势,也是乡村振兴的重要手段。文章分析了生态城镇化的人口迁移子系统、产业演化子系统以及生态承载力子系统之间的协同演化机理,认为人口迁移与产业生态化的协调发展为生态城镇化实施提供了保障。[方法]运用Vensim PLE软件绘制人口迁移子系统、产业子系统与生态承载力子系统之间的因果反馈图,构建系统动力学模型,并基于江苏省2012—2015年城镇化数据检验系统动力学模型的有效性。[结果](1)江苏省工业化的快速增长,推动了其产业城镇化进程,推动实现较高的人口城镇化率,产业与人口城镇化协同效应显著;(2)但是面临着生态用地规模逐渐下降,工业与城镇废水大量排放等问题,生态治理任务非常紧迫。[结论]产业城镇化与人口城镇化过程中的生态政策约束是保障生态城镇化协同发展的基础,生态城镇化发展转型是必然趋势。建议:(1)践行绿色发展理念,强化生态文明制度建设;(2)优化资源配置效率,推动经济效益与生态价值协调发展;(3)提高生态治理投入水平,改善生态治理能力。
Ecological urbanization is the inevitable trend of traditional urbanization which promotes new urban-rural relationship and sustainable ecological development and an important means of rural revitalization. This research analyzes the synergetic evolution mechanism between the population migration subsystem,the industrial evolution subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem of ecological urbanization,and believes that the coordinated development of population migration and industrial ecologicalization provides a guarantee for the implementation of ecological urbanization. Using Vensim PLE software,this research drew the causal feedback between the population migration subsystem,the industrial subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem,and it constructed the system dynamics model which was verified based on the urbanization data of Jiangsu province from 2012 to2015. The results show that( 1) The rapid growth of industrialization in Jiangsu province has promoted the process of industrial urbanization and promoted the realization of a higher population urbanization rate. The synergetic evolution effect between industry and population urbanization is obvious.( 2) However,facing with the gradual decline in the scale of ecological land use and the large discharge of industrial and urban wastewater,the task of ecological management is very urgent. The ecological policy constraint in the process of industrial urbanization and population urbanization is the basis for ensuring the coordinated development of ecological urbanization. The development of ecological urbanization is an inevitable trend. It suggested that we should practice the concept of green development,strengthen the construction of ecological civilization system,optimize the efficiency of resource allocation and promote the coordinated development of economic benefits and ecological values,and improve the level of ecological governance investment to improve ecological governance capacity.
Ecological urbanization is the inevitable trend of traditional urbanization which promotes new urban-rural relationship and sustainable ecological development and an important means of rural revitalization. This research analyzes the synergetic evolution mechanism between the population migration subsystem,the industrial evolution subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem of ecological urbanization,and believes that the coordinated development of population migration and industrial ecologicalization provides a guarantee for the implementation of ecological urbanization. Using Vensim PLE software,this research drew the causal feedback between the population migration subsystem,the industrial subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem,and it constructed the system dynamics model which was verified based on the urbanization data of Jiangsu province from 2012 to2015. The results show that( 1) The rapid growth of industrialization in Jiangsu province has promoted the process of industrial urbanization and promoted the realization of a higher population urbanization rate. The synergetic evolution effect between industry and population urbanization is obvious.( 2) However,facing with the gradual decline in the scale of ecological land use and the large discharge of industrial and urban wastewater,the task of ecological management is very urgent. The ecological policy constraint in the process of industrial urbanization and population urbanization is the basis for ensuring the coordinated development of ecological urbanization. The development of ecological urbanization is an inevitable trend. It suggested that we should practice the concept of green development,strengthen the construction of ecological civilization system,optimize the efficiency of resource allocation and promote the coordinated development of economic benefits and ecological values,and improve the level of ecological governance investment to improve ecological governance capacity.
引文
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[13]田金平,刘巍,臧娜,等.中国生态工业园区发展现状与展望.生态学报,2016,36(22):7323-7334.
[14]田金平,刘巍,李星,等.中国生态工业园区发展模式研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(7):60-66.
[15]尹科,王如松等.国外生态效率核算方法及其应用研究述评.生态学报,2012,11:3595-3605.
[16]陆根尧,盛龙,唐辰华.中国产业生态化水平的静态与动态分析———基于省际数据的实证研究.中国工业经济,2012,3:147-159.
[17]刘传江,吴晗晗,胡威.中国产业生态化转型的IOOE模型.中国人口、资源与环境,2016,2:119-128.
[18]刘成军.试论城镇化的关键要素:人口、土地和产业所引发的城镇生态环境问题.理论月刊,2017(1):116-121.
[19]李杰义.城市人口结构与产业结构的不对称分布问题及其对策.生产力研究,2008,1:102-104.
[20]王兴为.区域生态城镇化发展分析———以河南省濮阳市为例.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):38-42,64.
[21]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业—人口—空间耦合协调发展研究.中国人口、资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[22]郭岚,张祥建,李远勤.人口红利效应、产业升级与长三角地区经济发展.南京社会科学,2009,7:7-14.
[23]李子美,张爱儒.三江源生态功能区产业生态化模式系统动力学分析.统计与决策,2018,34(9):121-123.
[24]严翔,成长春,贾亦真.中国城镇化进程中产业、空间、人口对能源消费的影响分解.资源科学,2018,40(1):216-225.
[25]张乐勤,陈奎发.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进对耕地影响前景的预测及分析.农业工程学报,2014(4):2-9.
[26] Forrester J W. Industrial dynamics. Cambridge:MIT Press,1961.
[27] Forrester J W. System dynamics:a personal view of the first fifty years. System Dynamics Review,2007,23(2-3):345-358.
[28] Liu X,Zeng M. Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,73:782-788.
[29]何刚,张国枢,陈清华,等.煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析.中国安全科学学报,2008,18(09):43-47.
[30]何刚.基于系统动力学的煤矿安全管理水平仿真研究.系统仿真学报,2010,22(8):2013-2017.
[31]王吉苹,吝涛,薛雄志.基于系统动力学预测厦门水资源利用和城市化发展.生态科学,2016,35(6):98-108.
[32]杨开宇.运用系统动力学分析我国城镇化对水资源供需平衡的影响.财政研究,2013(6):10-13.
[33]马忠强,汪林.基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测.中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):70-75.
[34]许秀川,王钊.重庆市城市化、剩余劳动力转移与城乡收入差距的系统动力学分析.农业技术经济,2008(1):91-97.
[35]刘生龙.中国跨省人口迁移的影响因素分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(4):83-98.
[2]缪细英,廖福霖,祁新华.生态文明视野下中国城镇化问题研究.福建师范大学学报,2011,1:22-27.
[3]冯奎.城镇化是乡村振兴的重要推手.经济日报,2018-08-21(16)
[4]李铁.关注逆城镇化现象推动乡村振兴发展———学习习近平总书记关于城镇化和逆城镇化的讲话精神.人民论坛,2018(15):58-60.
[5]王磊,龚新蜀.产业生态化研究综述.工业技术经济,2013,7:154-160.
[6]胡雷,王军锋.主体功能区划视角下的产业生态化研究.未来与发展,2012,9:85-88.
[7]厉无畏,王慧敏.产业发展的趋势研判与理性思考.中国工业经济,2002,4:5-11.
[8]黄志斌,王晓华.产业生态化的经济学分析与对策探讨.华东经济管理,2000,3:7-8.
[9]王如松,韩宝龙.新型城市化与城市生态品质建设.环境保护,2013,2:13-16.
[10]吴福象,沈浩平.新型城镇、基础设施空间溢出与地区产业结构升级———基于长三角城市群16个核心城市的实证分析.财经科学,2013,7:89-98.
[11] Bernardini,Galli. Dematerialization:Long-term Trends in the Intensity of Use of Materials and Energy. Journal of Futures,1993,31(3):431-448.
[12]袁宇,李福华.高新区向科技创新城发展的生态产业实现路径研究.科技进步与对策,2012,10:41-46.
[13]田金平,刘巍,臧娜,等.中国生态工业园区发展现状与展望.生态学报,2016,36(22):7323-7334.
[14]田金平,刘巍,李星,等.中国生态工业园区发展模式研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(7):60-66.
[15]尹科,王如松等.国外生态效率核算方法及其应用研究述评.生态学报,2012,11:3595-3605.
[16]陆根尧,盛龙,唐辰华.中国产业生态化水平的静态与动态分析———基于省际数据的实证研究.中国工业经济,2012,3:147-159.
[17]刘传江,吴晗晗,胡威.中国产业生态化转型的IOOE模型.中国人口、资源与环境,2016,2:119-128.
[18]刘成军.试论城镇化的关键要素:人口、土地和产业所引发的城镇生态环境问题.理论月刊,2017(1):116-121.
[19]李杰义.城市人口结构与产业结构的不对称分布问题及其对策.生产力研究,2008,1:102-104.
[20]王兴为.区域生态城镇化发展分析———以河南省濮阳市为例.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):38-42,64.
[21]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业—人口—空间耦合协调发展研究.中国人口、资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[22]郭岚,张祥建,李远勤.人口红利效应、产业升级与长三角地区经济发展.南京社会科学,2009,7:7-14.
[23]李子美,张爱儒.三江源生态功能区产业生态化模式系统动力学分析.统计与决策,2018,34(9):121-123.
[24]严翔,成长春,贾亦真.中国城镇化进程中产业、空间、人口对能源消费的影响分解.资源科学,2018,40(1):216-225.
[25]张乐勤,陈奎发.基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进对耕地影响前景的预测及分析.农业工程学报,2014(4):2-9.
[26] Forrester J W. Industrial dynamics. Cambridge:MIT Press,1961.
[27] Forrester J W. System dynamics:a personal view of the first fifty years. System Dynamics Review,2007,23(2-3):345-358.
[28] Liu X,Zeng M. Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,73:782-788.
[29]何刚,张国枢,陈清华,等.煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析.中国安全科学学报,2008,18(09):43-47.
[30]何刚.基于系统动力学的煤矿安全管理水平仿真研究.系统仿真学报,2010,22(8):2013-2017.
[31]王吉苹,吝涛,薛雄志.基于系统动力学预测厦门水资源利用和城市化发展.生态科学,2016,35(6):98-108.
[32]杨开宇.运用系统动力学分析我国城镇化对水资源供需平衡的影响.财政研究,2013(6):10-13.
[33]马忠强,汪林.基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测.中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):70-75.
[34]许秀川,王钊.重庆市城市化、剩余劳动力转移与城乡收入差距的系统动力学分析.农业技术经济,2008(1):91-97.
[35]刘生龙.中国跨省人口迁移的影响因素分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2014,31(4):83-98.
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