基于混合选择模型的图状路径信息板影响分析
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摘要
有别于以往关于图状路径信息板(GRIP)影响的行为建模研究,运用混合选择模型研究了GRIP对驾驶员路径选择的影响。模型中通过恰当地构造"驾驶经验"和"GRIP信任度"两大潜变量,精细地刻画GRIP的影响机理。以上海实地存在的GRIP为研究对象,利用驾驶员行为调查数据,定量分析GRIP传递的事故和拥挤程度信息对路径选择的影响。分析结果表明,GRIP信息会显著影响路径选择,驾驶经验和GRIP信任度与提前驶离快速路的概率分别呈负向和正向关系,且驾驶经验的影响因个体属性而异。
Unlike previous behavioral modeling studies on the influence of graphical route information panel(GRIP), an intergrated choice and latent variable model was used to explore the impact of GRIP on driver route choice. By properly constructing two latent variables, i.e. the driving experience and GRIP trust, the model can depict the influence of GRIP more precisely. Taking GRIP on the spot in Shanghai as the research object, the driver behavior survey data was used to quantitatively analyze the impact of the accident and congestion degree information transmitted by the GRID on route choice. The results show that the GRIP can significantly affect the probability of path selection. In addition, the driving experience has a negative relationship with the probability of leaving the expressway ahead, and the GRIP trust is positively related to the probability of leaving the expressway ahead. The influence of driving experience varies with individual attributes.
Unlike previous behavioral modeling studies on the influence of graphical route information panel(GRIP), an intergrated choice and latent variable model was used to explore the impact of GRIP on driver route choice. By properly constructing two latent variables, i.e. the driving experience and GRIP trust, the model can depict the influence of GRIP more precisely. Taking GRIP on the spot in Shanghai as the research object, the driver behavior survey data was used to quantitatively analyze the impact of the accident and congestion degree information transmitted by the GRID on route choice. The results show that the GRIP can significantly affect the probability of path selection. In addition, the driving experience has a negative relationship with the probability of leaving the expressway ahead, and the GRIP trust is positively related to the probability of leaving the expressway ahead. The influence of driving experience varies with individual attributes.
引文
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[15]苏红,干宏程.图状信息板影响下的驾驶员路径选择行为[J].上海理工大学学报,2015,37(5):479-484.
[16]BEN-AKIVA M,MCFADDEN D,G?RLING T,et al.Extended framework for modeling choice behavior[J].Marketing Letters,1999,10(3):187-203.
[17]BEN-AKIVA M,MCFADDEN D,TRAIN K,et al.Hybrid choice models:progress and challenges[J].Marketing Letters,2002,13(3):163-175.
[2]LI X G,CAO Y K,ZHAO X M,et al.Drivers’diversion from expressway under real traffic condition information shown on variable message signs[J].KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2015,19(7):2262-2270.
[3]徐天东,孙立军,郝媛,等.不同交通信息下网络交通动态路径选择行为[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(8):1029-1033.
[4]干宏程.VMS诱导信息影响下的路径选择行为分析[J].系统工程,2008,26(3):11-16.
[5]SHALLOE S,SHARPLES S C,BURNETT G,et al.Developing a graphical route information panel(GRIP)for use on the UK motorway network.The first steps[J].Transportation Research Part F:Traffic Psychology and Behaviour,2014,27:133-149.
[6]ZHONG S Q,ZHOU L Z,MA S F,et al.Effects of different factors on drivers’guidance compliance behaviors under road condition information shown on VMS[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy&Practice,2012,46(9):1490-1505.
[7]LAI C J.Drivers’comprehension of traffic information on graphical route information panels[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2012,45:565-571.
[8]AITKEN R J,CONWAY A,WALTON C M.Implementing graphic route information panels(GRIPs)in the United States[J].ITE Journal,2012,82(3):42-47.
[9]GAN H C.Graphical route information panel for the urban freeway network in Shanghai,China[J].IET Intelligent Transport Systems,2010,4(3):212-220.
[10]景鹏,隽志才,查奇芬.考虑心理潜变量的出行方式选择行为模型[J].中国公路学报,2014,27(11):84-92,108.
[11]付学梅,隽志才.基于ICLV模型的通勤方式选择行为[J].系统管理学报,2016,25(6):1046-1050.
[12]GAN H C,SUN L J,CHEN J Y,et al.Advanced traveler information system for metropolitan expressways in Shanghai,China[J].Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2006,1944(1):35-40.
[13]GAN H C,WEI J N,YE X.Why do drivers divert?impact of graphical route information panels[J].International Journal of Mobile Communications,2013,11(4):412-427.
[14]GAN H C.Why do drivers change route?effect of graphical route information panels[J].IET Intelligent Transport Systems,2014,9(2):128-134.
[15]苏红,干宏程.图状信息板影响下的驾驶员路径选择行为[J].上海理工大学学报,2015,37(5):479-484.
[16]BEN-AKIVA M,MCFADDEN D,G?RLING T,et al.Extended framework for modeling choice behavior[J].Marketing Letters,1999,10(3):187-203.
[17]BEN-AKIVA M,MCFADDEN D,TRAIN K,et al.Hybrid choice models:progress and challenges[J].Marketing Letters,2002,13(3):163-175.
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