水资源综合模拟与调配模型WAS(Ⅱ):应用
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摘要
针对自然-社会水循环系统特点以及水资源管理实践需求,建立一种断面流量过程、断面特征频率径流总量、区域水资源配置总量多指标模型校验方法,并以甘肃省庆阳市为例开展WAS模型(Water Allocation and Simu?lation Model)构建与应用。模型在雨落坪站水文断面调参期(1967—1985年)年径流模拟的相关系数R2为0.89,Nash系数为0.79,校验期(1986—2000年)年径流模拟的相关系数R2为0.88,Nash系数为0.76;区域多年平均水资源总量模拟与实测误差为4.1%,25%、50%、75%和90%频率年误差分别为5.0%、1.1%、5.9%和4.2%;全市水资源配置总量误差为0.35%。在此基础上,提出庆阳市各水资源分区和行政分区的水资源配置方案以及全市自然-人工水资源循环转化图;分析表明,WAS模型在描述自然-社会水循环系统动态反馈方面具有一定优势,模型可以支撑水资源精细化评价和管理需求。
Aiming at the characteristics of the natural-social water cycle system,a multi-dimension index model verification method for cross-section flow process,cross-section feature runoff volume,regional water allocation was established,and Qingyang City in Gansu Province is taken as an example to use the WAS model(Water Allocation and Simulation Model). The correlation coefficient R2 of runoff simulation in calibration period 1967-1985 of the Yuluoping cross-section was 0.89,and the Nash coefficient was 0.79. The correlation coefficient R2 of runoff simulation in validation period 1986-2000 was 0.88,and the Nash coefficient was 0.76. The average annual error of the simulation and measurement of regional water resources was4.1%,and the errors at frequency of 25%,50%,75% and 90% were 5.0%,1.1%,5.9% and 4.2%,respectively. The average error of the water allocation and measurement of Qingyang City was 0.35%. Based on the result,the water resources allocation plan for water supply of 284 million m3 and water consumption of 211 million m3 in the current year was put forward,and the decomposition map of regional water balance was given. The results show that WAS model can describe the dynamic feedback relationship between natural and social water circulation systems,and the model can also meet the accuracy requirements of water resources assessment and management.
Aiming at the characteristics of the natural-social water cycle system,a multi-dimension index model verification method for cross-section flow process,cross-section feature runoff volume,regional water allocation was established,and Qingyang City in Gansu Province is taken as an example to use the WAS model(Water Allocation and Simulation Model). The correlation coefficient R2 of runoff simulation in calibration period 1967-1985 of the Yuluoping cross-section was 0.89,and the Nash coefficient was 0.79. The correlation coefficient R2 of runoff simulation in validation period 1986-2000 was 0.88,and the Nash coefficient was 0.76. The average annual error of the simulation and measurement of regional water resources was4.1%,and the errors at frequency of 25%,50%,75% and 90% were 5.0%,1.1%,5.9% and 4.2%,respectively. The average error of the water allocation and measurement of Qingyang City was 0.35%. Based on the result,the water resources allocation plan for water supply of 284 million m3 and water consumption of 211 million m3 in the current year was put forward,and the decomposition map of regional water balance was given. The results show that WAS model can describe the dynamic feedback relationship between natural and social water circulation systems,and the model can also meet the accuracy requirements of water resources assessment and management.
引文
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[5]赵勇,陆垂裕,肖伟华.广义水资源合理配置研究(Ⅱ)——模型[J].水利学报,2007,38(2):163-170.
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[12]王佩兰,赵人俊.新安江模型(三水源)参数的客观优选方法[J].河海大学学报,1989(4):65-69.
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