1982—2012年河南省夏玉米生育期降水量时空变化格局分析
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摘要
依据河南省各省辖市气象站点1982—2012年降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势与突变检验法,研究了河南省夏玉米各主产区生育期降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明,河南省夏玉米各主产区在历年年均降水量和夏玉米生育期降水量分布极不均匀、区域差异明显,豫南>豫东>豫中南>豫西南>豫北>豫西;各产区农田水分亏缺现象普遍存在且有较大差异,尤其豫北和豫西产区水分亏缺最为严重,盈亏量分别为-149.54,-126.6,自然降水量少且农田耗水量大,无法满足玉米生长发育的水分需求;运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Mann-Kendall突变检验,除豫西丘陵主产区外,河南省夏玉米各主产区生育期降水量均呈逐年上升的趋势,其中豫东平原地区的上升趋势显著,而豫西丘陵地区整体呈下降趋势,且下降趋势显著,豫南和豫北产区上升趋势不显著,而豫北和豫西地区玉米生育期内易发生水分亏缺。
Based on the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2012, especially the precipitation data, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation during the growth period of summer maize in Henan Province were studied by using the Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test method. The results showed that the average annual precipitation and summer maize growing period precipitation in Henan Province were very uneven, and the regional differences were obvious, Southern Henan>Eastern Henan>Mid-Southern Henan>West-Southern Henan>Northern Henan>Western Henan. The phenomenon of water deficit in farmland in different producing areas is common and there is great difference, especially in the north plain of Henan and the hilly area of western Henan, the water deficit is the most serious, water gain or loss are-149.54,-126.6, respectively. So, the natural precipitation is less and the farmland water consumption is large, which can't meet the water demand of maize growth and development. Using Mann-Kendall trend test and Mann-Kendall mutation test, it was found that the precipitation of summer maize growing period in Henan Province had been increasing year by year, except for the main producing areas in the west of Henan Province, and the rising trend of summer maize in the eastern plain of Henan Province was significant. However, in the hilly areas of western Henan Province, the trend of decline was significant, but the rising trend of the producing areas in the south and north of Henan was not significant, but the water deficit was easy to occur in the growing period of maize in the north and west of Henan Province.
Based on the daily meteorological data from 1982 to 2012, especially the precipitation data, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation during the growth period of summer maize in Henan Province were studied by using the Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test method. The results showed that the average annual precipitation and summer maize growing period precipitation in Henan Province were very uneven, and the regional differences were obvious, Southern Henan>Eastern Henan>Mid-Southern Henan>West-Southern Henan>Northern Henan>Western Henan. The phenomenon of water deficit in farmland in different producing areas is common and there is great difference, especially in the north plain of Henan and the hilly area of western Henan, the water deficit is the most serious, water gain or loss are-149.54,-126.6, respectively. So, the natural precipitation is less and the farmland water consumption is large, which can't meet the water demand of maize growth and development. Using Mann-Kendall trend test and Mann-Kendall mutation test, it was found that the precipitation of summer maize growing period in Henan Province had been increasing year by year, except for the main producing areas in the west of Henan Province, and the rising trend of summer maize in the eastern plain of Henan Province was significant. However, in the hilly areas of western Henan Province, the trend of decline was significant, but the rising trend of the producing areas in the south and north of Henan was not significant, but the water deficit was easy to occur in the growing period of maize in the north and west of Henan Province.
引文
[1] 唐侥,孙睿.基于气象和遥感数据的河南省干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(4):646-655.
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[9] 陈中平,徐强.Mann-Kendall检验法分析降水量时程变化特征[J].科技通报,2016,32(6):47-50.
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[12] 张云霞.近50年商丘小麦玉米生长季降水量变化特征分析[J].河南科学,2012,30(8):1046-1049.
[13] 孙海潮.河南省玉米优势区域布局与发展战略研究[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2008.
[14] 刘战东,段爱旺,肖俊夫,等.旱作物生育期有效降水量计算模式研究进展[J].灌溉排水学报,2007,26(3):27-30;34.
[15] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.近50 a东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):101-109.
[16] 李闯, 刘艳伟, 符娜,等. 基于作物水分盈亏指数的昆明水稻生长季干旱特征及成因分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2016, 34(3):186-192.
[17] 韩艳,赵国永,江蕾蕾,等.1951—2013年河南省降水量时空变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):235-240.
[18] 李树岩, 陈怀亮. 河南省夏玉米气候适宜度评价[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(5):751-759.
[2] 周琳.东北气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:30-31.
[3] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.东北地区玉米主要气象灾害风险评价模型研究[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(21):4257-4268.
[4] 邵晓梅,严昌荣.黄河流域主要农作物的降水盈亏格局分析[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):40-44.
[5] 张振华,蔡焕杰.水分亏缺对覆膜玉米生长发育及产量的影响[J].灌溉排水,2001,20(2):13-16.
[6] 马旭凤,于涛,汪李宏,等.苗期水分亏缺对玉米根系发育及解剖结构的影响[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(7):1731-1736.
[7] 梁哲军,陶洪斌,赵海祯,等.苗期土壤水分亏缺后玉米光合生理的恢复[J].华北农学报,2009,24(2):117-121.
[8] 曹洁萍,迟道才,武立强,等.Mann-Kendall检验方法在降水趋势分析中的应用研究[J].农业科技与装备,2008(5):35-37.
[9] 陈中平,徐强.Mann-Kendall检验法分析降水量时程变化特征[J].科技通报,2016,32(6):47-50.
[10] 简虹,骆云中,谢德体.基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析的降水变化特征研究:以重庆市沙坪坝区为例[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,36(4):217-222.
[11] 刘少华,胡彩虹,王爱琴.郑州市近58 a降雨量变化分析[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(3):18-22.
[12] 张云霞.近50年商丘小麦玉米生长季降水量变化特征分析[J].河南科学,2012,30(8):1046-1049.
[13] 孙海潮.河南省玉米优势区域布局与发展战略研究[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2008.
[14] 刘战东,段爱旺,肖俊夫,等.旱作物生育期有效降水量计算模式研究进展[J].灌溉排水学报,2007,26(3):27-30;34.
[15] 高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.近50 a东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):101-109.
[16] 李闯, 刘艳伟, 符娜,等. 基于作物水分盈亏指数的昆明水稻生长季干旱特征及成因分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2016, 34(3):186-192.
[17] 韩艳,赵国永,江蕾蕾,等.1951—2013年河南省降水量时空变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):235-240.
[18] 李树岩, 陈怀亮. 河南省夏玉米气候适宜度评价[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(5):751-759.
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