气候恢复力及其在极端天气气候灾害管理中的应用
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摘要
恢复力(resilience)一词自1973年进入生态学领域以来,在生态环境和自然资源管理以及社会经济可持续发展相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用。随着人类对全球气候变化及其影响的认识不断加深,气候恢复力也逐渐成为应对气候变化的一个重要理念。本文首先系统阐述了气候恢复力概念的实质及与其密切相关的其他几个重要概念,然后在系统评估恢复力概念及其内涵的历史演变基础上,提出了一个实施气候恢复力建设的通用框架。尽管气候恢复力涉及行动主体的不同方面,而且还关系到不同部门和/或不同层次/尺度的优先选项,但希望此框架仍能对各部门、各尺度/层次的气候恢复力建设提供重要借鉴。最后以极端天气气候灾害管理为例,通过对英国皇家学会发布的《极端天气恢复力》报告进行述评,并对中国应对极端天气气候灾害的管理框架进行分析,进一步探讨了该框架的实用性。
With the awareness of global climate change and its possible consequences for humanity, climate resilience has become a key concept in our efforts to deal with the challenges induced by climate change. This paper describes and discusses the essences of the climate resilience concept and other existing key concepts that are closely linked to it with a focus on their interlinkages. Based on this theoretical discussion and a systematic assessment of the historical evolution of the resilience concept, a framework to implement climate resilience is presented. Although climate resilience entails different aspects for actors and priorities for different sectors and/or at different levels/scales, the generic nature of the framework should be useful for practices aiming at achieving climate resilience for different levels/scales/sectors. Finally, taking extreme climate resilience as an example, we further illustrate the application of the framework through reviewing the report entitled Resilience to Extreme Weather released by The Royal Society and analyzing the management framework of China's response to extreme weather and climate disasters.
With the awareness of global climate change and its possible consequences for humanity, climate resilience has become a key concept in our efforts to deal with the challenges induced by climate change. This paper describes and discusses the essences of the climate resilience concept and other existing key concepts that are closely linked to it with a focus on their interlinkages. Based on this theoretical discussion and a systematic assessment of the historical evolution of the resilience concept, a framework to implement climate resilience is presented. Although climate resilience entails different aspects for actors and priorities for different sectors and/or at different levels/scales, the generic nature of the framework should be useful for practices aiming at achieving climate resilience for different levels/scales/sectors. Finally, taking extreme climate resilience as an example, we further illustrate the application of the framework through reviewing the report entitled Resilience to Extreme Weather released by The Royal Society and analyzing the management framework of China's response to extreme weather and climate disasters.
引文
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[30]Malhi Y, Roberts J T, Betts R A, et al. Climate change, deforestation,and the fate of the Amazon[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5860):169-172
[31]Coaffee J.Towards next-generation urban resilience in planning practice:from securitization to integrated place making[J]. Planning Practice & Research, 2013, 28(3):323-339
[32]Stephen T,MarcusM. A framework for urban climate resilience[J].Climate & Development, 2012, 4(4):311-326
[33]Roberts J T. The international dimension of climate justice and the need for international adaptation funding[J]. Environmental Justice, 2009, 2(4):185-190
[34]Satterthwaite D. The political underpinnings of cities’ accumulated resilience to climate change[J]. Environment & Urbanization, 2013, 25(2):381-391
[35]Mcmichael AJ, Woodruff RE,Hales S.Climate change and human health:present and future risks[J]. Lancet, 2006, 367(9513):859-869
[36]Zhou H,Wang J,Wan J,et al.Resilience to natural hazards:a geographic perspective[J]. Nat Hazards, 2010, 53:21-41. DOI:10.1007/s11069-009-9407-y
[37]Zhou H, Wang X, Wang J. Away to sustain ability:perspectiveof resilience and adaptation to disaster[J]. Sustainability, 2016, 8:737.DOI:10.3390/su8080737
[38]Lebel L, Anderies J M, Campbell B, et al. Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems[J]. Ecology&Society, 2006, 11(1):1599-1604
[39]Satterthwaite D, Huq S, Reid H, et al. Adapting to climate change in urban areas:the possibilities and constraints in low-and middle-income nations[M]. 2007. DOI:10.4324/9781849770361
[40]秦大河,张建云,闪淳昌,等.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社, 2015
[41]Chen D,Walther A,Moberg A,etal.European trend Atlas of extreme temperature and precipitation records[M].Berlin:Springer Netherlands, 2015
[42]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013
[2]Holling C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Ecology&Systematics, 1973, 4(4):1-23
[3]Vayda A P,McCay B J.New directions in ecology and ecological anthropology[J]. Annual Review of Anthropology, 1975, 4(1):293-306
[4]FolkeC,HahnT,OlssonP,etal. Adaptivegovernanceofsocialecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Environment & Resources,2005, 30(30):441-473
[5]BénéC, Wood R G, Newsham A, et al. Resilience:new utopia or new tyranny?reflection about the potentials and limits of the concept of resilience in relation to vulnerability reduction programmes[J].Ids Working Papers, 2013, 2012(405):1-61
[6]Rockefeller Foundation. Rebound:building a more resilient world[M].New York:Rockefeller Foundation, 2013
[7]ThompsonI,MackeyB,McNultyS,etal.Forestresilience,biodiversity,and climate change.asynthesis of the biodiversity/resilience/stability relationship in forest ecosystems[J]. Cbd Technical,2009, 43:1-67
[8]秦大河.气候变化科学概论[M].北京:科学出版社, 2018
[9]IPCC. Climate change 2007:impacts, adaptation and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007
[10]IPCC. Climate change 2014:impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2014
[11]Nelson DR, Adger WN,Brown K. Adaptation to environmental change:contributions of a resilience framework[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007,32(32).DOI:10.1146/annurev.energy.32.051807.090348
[12]Folke C,Carpenter SR,Walker B,et al.Resiliencethinking:integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability[J]. Ecology&Society, 2010, 15(4):299-305
[13]Royal Society. Resilience to extreme weather[R]. Royal Society, 2014
[14]Flood R L, Carson E R. Dealing with complexity:an introduction to the theory and application of systems science[M]. New York:Plenum Press, 1993
[15]Lansing J S.Complex adaptive systems[J]. Annual Review of Anthropology, 2003, 32(4):183-204
[16]Lade S J, Levin S A, Schlüter M. Regime shifts in a social–ecological system[J]. Theoretical Ecology, 2013, 6(3):359-372
[17]Arctic Council. Arctic resilience report[M].Stockholm:Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2016
[18]Rice J B, Sheffi Y. A supply chain view of the resilient enterprise[J].Mit Sloan Management Review, 2005, 47(1):41-48
[19]Dakos V,Carpenter SR,vanNes EH,et al.Resilience indicators:prospects and limitations for early warnings of regimeshifts[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,2015, 370(1659). DOI:10.1098/rstb.2013.0263
[20]Folke C.Resilience:the emergence of a perspective forsocial–ecological systems analyses[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006,16(3):253-267
[21]Tompkins E L, Adger W N.Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change?[J]. Ecology&Society,2004, 9(2):1-14
[22]World Commission on Environment and Development. Our common future[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1987
[23]Waite M. SURF framework for a sustainable economy[J]. Journal of Sustainability Science&Management, 2013, 3(3):25-40
[24]Anderies J M,Folke C, Walker B,et al. Aligning key concepts for global change policy:robustness,resilience,and sustain ability[J].Ecology&Society, 2013, 18(2):344-365
[25]Smit B, Wandel J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3):282-292
[26]IPCC.Summary for policy makers:managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2012:3-21
[27]Keim ME.Building human resilience:the role of public health preparedness and responseas anad aptation to climate change[J].American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008, 35(5):508-516
[28]Cannon T.Reducing people’s vulner ability to natural hazards:communities and resilience[J]. Wider Working Paper, 2008, 34
[29]Tschakert P,Dietrich K A. Anticipatory learning for climate change adaptation and resilience[J]. Ecology&Society, 2010, 15(2):299-305
[30]Malhi Y, Roberts J T, Betts R A, et al. Climate change, deforestation,and the fate of the Amazon[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5860):169-172
[31]Coaffee J.Towards next-generation urban resilience in planning practice:from securitization to integrated place making[J]. Planning Practice & Research, 2013, 28(3):323-339
[32]Stephen T,MarcusM. A framework for urban climate resilience[J].Climate & Development, 2012, 4(4):311-326
[33]Roberts J T. The international dimension of climate justice and the need for international adaptation funding[J]. Environmental Justice, 2009, 2(4):185-190
[34]Satterthwaite D. The political underpinnings of cities’ accumulated resilience to climate change[J]. Environment & Urbanization, 2013, 25(2):381-391
[35]Mcmichael AJ, Woodruff RE,Hales S.Climate change and human health:present and future risks[J]. Lancet, 2006, 367(9513):859-869
[36]Zhou H,Wang J,Wan J,et al.Resilience to natural hazards:a geographic perspective[J]. Nat Hazards, 2010, 53:21-41. DOI:10.1007/s11069-009-9407-y
[37]Zhou H, Wang X, Wang J. Away to sustain ability:perspectiveof resilience and adaptation to disaster[J]. Sustainability, 2016, 8:737.DOI:10.3390/su8080737
[38]Lebel L, Anderies J M, Campbell B, et al. Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems[J]. Ecology&Society, 2006, 11(1):1599-1604
[39]Satterthwaite D, Huq S, Reid H, et al. Adapting to climate change in urban areas:the possibilities and constraints in low-and middle-income nations[M]. 2007. DOI:10.4324/9781849770361
[40]秦大河,张建云,闪淳昌,等.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社, 2015
[41]Chen D,Walther A,Moberg A,etal.European trend Atlas of extreme temperature and precipitation records[M].Berlin:Springer Netherlands, 2015
[42]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013
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