基于高时空分辨率的气候变化对全球主要农区气候生产潜力的影响评估
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摘要
气候变化背景下,对全球主要农区气候生产潜力进行定量评估不仅可以反映出该地气候生产潜力水平与光、温、水资源配合协调的程度及地区差异,而且对提高土地生产力水平,指导农牧业生产具有重要意义。以全球主要农业区为研究对象,应用全球高时空分辨率气象格点资料和气候生产潜力模型,评估了1981-2015年气候变化对全球主要农区气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明,(1)1981-2015年全球主要农区气候生产潜力呈波动上升趋势,在7.68-8.28t·hm~(-2)之间变化,平均为7.97 t·hm~(-2),最大值出现在2010年,最小值出现在1987年。(2)同年际变化相似,气候生产潜力年代际增长也十分明显,其中20世纪80年代和20世纪90年代之间的增长最显著。(3)35年间,全球主要农业区平均农业气候生产潜力空间分布的基本特点是南高北低,区域差异显著。全球农业区主要集中在东亚、南亚、中亚、西亚、南欧、大洋洲南部、南美洲东部和北美洲南部等地,最高值出现在亚洲东南部,为28.9 t·hm~(-2),北美洲南部、大洋洲南部、亚洲中部、非洲中部等地气候生产潜力较低,大部分地区在5.1t·hm~(-2)以下。(4)35年间,亚洲西南部、中部和北部以及北美洲中部和东南部等地的农业区气候生产潜力显著提高,大部分地区提高了0.00-6.00 t·hm~(-2);而在欧洲大部分地区、南美洲北部和东部、非洲中部和南部以及大洋洲大部分地区气候生产潜力明显减少,变化幅度在-7.99-0.00 t·hm~(-2)之间。总体而言,气候变化对亚洲和北美洲农业区农业生产有利,而对欧洲、南美洲、非洲和大洋洲农业生产不利。
Under climate change, the quantitative assessment of climatic potential productivity in the main agricultural areas of the world can reflect the degree of coordination among light, temperature and water resources and regional differences. Furthermore, it is of great significance for improving the level of land productivity and guiding the production of agriculture and animal husbandry.Taking the global major agricultural region as the research object, and using the high spatial and temporal resolution outputs of meteorological grid data and the climatic potential productivity model, we assessed the impact of climate change on climatic potential productivity in global major agricultural regions from 1981 to 2015. The results showed that:(1) From 1981 to 2015, the annual changes in the climatic potential productivity in global major agricultural regions showed increasing trend fluctuating from 7.68 t·hm~(-2) and 8.28 t·hm~(-2), with an average of 7.97 t·hm~(-2). The maximum and the minimum climatic potential productivities were found in 2010 and in 1987, respectively.(2) Similarly to the interannual change, the interdecadal increase of climatic potential productivity was also obvious. The most significant increase was found between 1980s and 1990s.(3) The basic characteristic of the spatial distribution of climatic potential productivity was high in the south and low in the north. Global agricultural regions were mainly concentrated in East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Western Asia, Southern Europe, Southern Oceania, eastern South America and southern North America. Over the 35 years, the difference in average climatic potential productivity was significant in different regions. Among them, the highest value appeared in Southeast Asia(28.9 t·hm~(-2)). However, the climate production potential was low in southern North America, Southern Oceania, Central Asia, Central Africa and so on, with the value of below 5.1 t·hm~(-2).And(4) over the 35 years, the climatic potential productivities in the central, northern and southwestern agricultural regions of Asia,and central and southeastern North America evidently increased, and increased by 0.00-6.00 t·hm~(-2) in some areas. However, in most parts of Europe, northern and eastern South America, central and southern Africa, and Oceania, the climatic potential productivities decreased significantly, ranging from -7.99 t·hm~(-2) to 0.00 t·hm~(-2). Overall, climate change was beneficial to agricultural production in the agricultural regions of Asia and North America, and unfavorable to agricultural production in Europe, South America, Africa and Oceania in general.
Under climate change, the quantitative assessment of climatic potential productivity in the main agricultural areas of the world can reflect the degree of coordination among light, temperature and water resources and regional differences. Furthermore, it is of great significance for improving the level of land productivity and guiding the production of agriculture and animal husbandry.Taking the global major agricultural region as the research object, and using the high spatial and temporal resolution outputs of meteorological grid data and the climatic potential productivity model, we assessed the impact of climate change on climatic potential productivity in global major agricultural regions from 1981 to 2015. The results showed that:(1) From 1981 to 2015, the annual changes in the climatic potential productivity in global major agricultural regions showed increasing trend fluctuating from 7.68 t·hm~(-2) and 8.28 t·hm~(-2), with an average of 7.97 t·hm~(-2). The maximum and the minimum climatic potential productivities were found in 2010 and in 1987, respectively.(2) Similarly to the interannual change, the interdecadal increase of climatic potential productivity was also obvious. The most significant increase was found between 1980s and 1990s.(3) The basic characteristic of the spatial distribution of climatic potential productivity was high in the south and low in the north. Global agricultural regions were mainly concentrated in East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Western Asia, Southern Europe, Southern Oceania, eastern South America and southern North America. Over the 35 years, the difference in average climatic potential productivity was significant in different regions. Among them, the highest value appeared in Southeast Asia(28.9 t·hm~(-2)). However, the climate production potential was low in southern North America, Southern Oceania, Central Asia, Central Africa and so on, with the value of below 5.1 t·hm~(-2).And(4) over the 35 years, the climatic potential productivities in the central, northern and southwestern agricultural regions of Asia,and central and southeastern North America evidently increased, and increased by 0.00-6.00 t·hm~(-2) in some areas. However, in most parts of Europe, northern and eastern South America, central and southern Africa, and Oceania, the climatic potential productivities decreased significantly, ranging from -7.99 t·hm~(-2) to 0.00 t·hm~(-2). Overall, climate change was beneficial to agricultural production in the agricultural regions of Asia and North America, and unfavorable to agricultural production in Europe, South America, Africa and Oceania in general.
引文
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宋永昌,2001.植被生态学[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社.SONG Y C,2001.Vegetation Ecology[M].Shanghai:East China Normal University Press.
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肖国举,张强,王静,2007.全球气候变化对农业生态系统的影响研究进展[J].应用生态学报,18(8):1877-1885.XIAO G J,ZHANG Q,WANG J,2007.Impact of global climate change on agro-ecosystem:A review[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,18(8):1877-1885.
赵慧颖,田宝星,宫丽娟,等,2017.近308年来大兴安岭北部森林植被气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报,37(6):1900-1911.ZHAO H Y,TIAN B X,GONG L J,et al.,2017.Climate-induced potential productivity of forest vegetation during the past 308 years in northern Da Hinggan Mountain region,China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,37(6):1900-1911.
赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.2010.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,31(2):200-205.ZHAO J F,GUO J P,ZHANG Y H,et al.,2010.Advances in research of impact of climate change on agriculture[J].Chinese Journal of Arometeorology,31(2):200-205.
张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷,等,2015.辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,36(2):203-211.ZHANG Y M,ZHNAG X S,GUO T T,et al.,2015.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation change and the influence on climate productive potential in the northwestern Liaoning[J].Chinese Journal of Arometeorology,36(2):203-211.
钟章奇,王铮,夏海斌,等,2015.全球气候变化下中国农业生产潜力的空间演变[J].自然资源学报,30(12):2018-2032.ZHONG Z Q,WANG Z,XIA H B,et al.,2015.Temporal and Spatial Variation of the Potential Agricultural Productivity of China under Global Climate Change[J].Journal of Natural Resources,30(12):2018-2032.
GUO J P,ZHAO J F,XU Y H,et al.,2015.Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,87-88:87-96.
IPCC,2014.Climate Change,2014.Impacts,Adaptation,and Vulnerability[C].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
LE K N,JHA M K,REYES M R,et al.,2018.Evaluating carbon sequestration for conservation agriculture and tillage systems in Cambodia using the EPIC model[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,251:37-47.
LEWIS S L,BRANDO P M,PHILLIPS O L,et al.,2011.The 2010Amazon drought[J].Science,331(6017):554.
LI P,PENG C H,WANG M,et al.,2017.Quantification of the response of global terrestrial net primary production to multifactor global change[J].Ecological Indicators,76:245-255.
LIETH H,WHITTAKER R H,1975.Primary Productivity of the Biosphere[M].Berlin Heidelberg:Springer:251-300.
MORALES P,HICKLER T,ROWELL D P,et al.,2007.Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by regional climate model output[J].Global Change biology,13(1):108-122.
MWAURA F M,MUWANIKA F R,2018.Providing irrigation water as a public utility to enhance agricultural productivity in Uganda[J].Utilities Policy,55:99-109.
POTTER C,KLOOSTER S,GENOVESE V,2012.Net primary production of terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009[J].Climatic Change,115(2):365-378.
SINGH S,BOOTE K J,ANGADI S V,et al.,2017.Estimating water balance,evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of spring safflower using the CROPGRO model[J].Agricultural Water Management,185:137-144.
ZHAO J F,PU F Y,LI YP,et al.,2017.Assessing the combined effects of climatic factors on spring wheat phenophase and grain yield in Inner Mongolia,China[J].PLoS ONE,12(11):e0185690.
杜志雄,2015.世界农业:格局与趋势[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社.DU Z X,2015.World agriculture:patterns and trends[M].Beijing:China Social Science Press.
焦翠翠,于贵瑞,展小云,等,2014.全球森林生态系统净初级生产力的空间格局及其区域特征[J].第四纪研究,43(4):699-709.JIAO C C,YU G R,ZHAN X Y,et al.,2014.Spatial pattern and regional characteristics of global forest ecosystem net primary productivity[J].Quaternary Sciences,43(4):699-709.
李莉,周宏飞,包安明,2014.中亚地区气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,29(2):285-294.LI L,ZHOU H F,BAO A M,2014.Spatial and temporal variability of potential climat e productivity in Central Asia[J].Journal of Natural Resources,29(2):285-294.
邵璞,曾晓东,2011.气候年际变率对全球植被平均分布的影响[J].生态学报,31(6):1494-1505.SHAO P,ZENG X D,2011.The impact of interannual climate variability on the mean global vegetation distribution[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,31(6):1494-1505.
宋永昌,2001.植被生态学[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社.SONG Y C,2001.Vegetation Ecology[M].Shanghai:East China Normal University Press.
王胜兰,2008.基于5种气候生产力模型的乌鲁木齐地区NPP计算分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2(4):40-44.WANG S L,2008.Computation and analysis about NPP in Urumqi area based on 5 Kinds climate-productivity Model[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2(4):40-44.
肖国举,张强,王静,2007.全球气候变化对农业生态系统的影响研究进展[J].应用生态学报,18(8):1877-1885.XIAO G J,ZHANG Q,WANG J,2007.Impact of global climate change on agro-ecosystem:A review[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,18(8):1877-1885.
赵慧颖,田宝星,宫丽娟,等,2017.近308年来大兴安岭北部森林植被气候生产潜力及其对气候变化的响应[J].生态学报,37(6):1900-1911.ZHAO H Y,TIAN B X,GONG L J,et al.,2017.Climate-induced potential productivity of forest vegetation during the past 308 years in northern Da Hinggan Mountain region,China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,37(6):1900-1911.
赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.2010.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,31(2):200-205.ZHAO J F,GUO J P,ZHANG Y H,et al.,2010.Advances in research of impact of climate change on agriculture[J].Chinese Journal of Arometeorology,31(2):200-205.
张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷,等,2015.辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,36(2):203-211.ZHANG Y M,ZHNAG X S,GUO T T,et al.,2015.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation change and the influence on climate productive potential in the northwestern Liaoning[J].Chinese Journal of Arometeorology,36(2):203-211.
钟章奇,王铮,夏海斌,等,2015.全球气候变化下中国农业生产潜力的空间演变[J].自然资源学报,30(12):2018-2032.ZHONG Z Q,WANG Z,XIA H B,et al.,2015.Temporal and Spatial Variation of the Potential Agricultural Productivity of China under Global Climate Change[J].Journal of Natural Resources,30(12):2018-2032.
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