一次引发极端降水事件的江淮气旋发生发展分析
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摘要
利用NCEP0.25°×0.25°再分析数据和多种观测资料,对2017年6月9—10日在苏皖地区引发区域性大暴雨并在江苏数个观测站造成极端降水事件的江淮气旋过程(简称"0609"过程)进行了分析,从气旋的生成、发展、冷暖锋和相当正压性等方面与前一次降水较弱的江淮气旋过程(同年6月5日过程,简称"0605"过程)进行了对比,结论如下:(1)对流层高层正涡度平流及出流区引发高空辐散场,继而导致对流层低层动力减压,是"0609"江淮气旋的启动机制,而"0605"过程对流层低层强盛的暖平流引起的上升运动导致了气旋的生成;(2)对锋生函数的计算表明"0609"过程锋生作用较"0605"过程更强,前者暖锋锋区较后者更为陡立且在一定区域内缓慢移动,暖锋附近及暖区一侧上升运动更强且更为深厚,以上因素直接导致了"0609"过程区域性大暴雨的发生;(3)相对涡度和纬向风0值线的垂直分布表明,"0609"过程气旋在700 hPa以下表现为集中的涡度柱形态,强度较大,系统随高度几近垂直分布,相当正压结构十分明显,而"0605"过程气旋涡度柱仅存在于850 hPa以下,强度较弱,相对涡度和纬向风0值线随高度北倾,斜压性明显;(4)"0609"过程强降水引起的潜热释放通过涡度混合加强了气旋,加强的气旋又增强了降水,降水和气旋之间建立了类似于"CISK"机制的正反馈过程,这可能是"0609"过程气旋表现出较强正压性的原因,说明了江淮气旋发展方式的多样性。
A Jianghuai cyclone which caused regional severe torrential rain in East China and extreme precipitation events at several stations in Jiangsu Province during 9-10 June 2017 is analyzed based on NCEP0. 25°×0. 25° reanalysis data and multiple observation data. The generation, development, front structure and equivalent barotropy are studied by comparing with another Jianghuai cyclone with less precipitation.The results are as follows.(1) The divergence caused by positive vorticity advection and distributary at upper troposphere led to the generation of the "0609"(9 June 2017) cyclone while the warm advection at lower troposphere triggered the "0605"(5 June 2017) cyclone,(2) The calculation of frontogenesis function indicates that frontogenesis was much intenser in the "0609" cyclone than the other which made the frontal surface less tilted and the upward motion in warm area much stronger and deeper. These factors and the slow motion of front could be the direct reason for the regional torrential rain.(3) Vertical profile of relative vorticity and 0 contour of zonal wind indicates that the "0609" cyclone had an intense vorticity column and vertical structure below 700 hPa, which made itself some equivalent barotropic, while the "0605" cyclone had a tilted structure and it was more baroclinic.(4) The latent heat released by intense precipitation could strengthen the cyclone by mixing vorticity and the strengthened cyclone could enhance the precipitation conversely, creating a positive feedback mechanism like CISK between cyclone and its precipitation.This could be the reason for the equivalent barotropy of the "0609" cyclone, showing the multiple evolution pattern of Jianghuai cyclone.
A Jianghuai cyclone which caused regional severe torrential rain in East China and extreme precipitation events at several stations in Jiangsu Province during 9-10 June 2017 is analyzed based on NCEP0. 25°×0. 25° reanalysis data and multiple observation data. The generation, development, front structure and equivalent barotropy are studied by comparing with another Jianghuai cyclone with less precipitation.The results are as follows.(1) The divergence caused by positive vorticity advection and distributary at upper troposphere led to the generation of the "0609"(9 June 2017) cyclone while the warm advection at lower troposphere triggered the "0605"(5 June 2017) cyclone,(2) The calculation of frontogenesis function indicates that frontogenesis was much intenser in the "0609" cyclone than the other which made the frontal surface less tilted and the upward motion in warm area much stronger and deeper. These factors and the slow motion of front could be the direct reason for the regional torrential rain.(3) Vertical profile of relative vorticity and 0 contour of zonal wind indicates that the "0609" cyclone had an intense vorticity column and vertical structure below 700 hPa, which made itself some equivalent barotropic, while the "0605" cyclone had a tilted structure and it was more baroclinic.(4) The latent heat released by intense precipitation could strengthen the cyclone by mixing vorticity and the strengthened cyclone could enhance the precipitation conversely, creating a positive feedback mechanism like CISK between cyclone and its precipitation.This could be the reason for the equivalent barotropy of the "0609" cyclone, showing the multiple evolution pattern of Jianghuai cyclone.
引文
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陈筱秋,王咏青,2016.基于NECP资料的一次东移引发暴雨的江淮气旋结构特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,35(1):53-60. Chen X Q,Wang Y Q,2016. Structure and mechanism analysis of a Jianghuai cyclone with an eastern path and heavyrain based on NCEP data[J]. Torrential Rain Disaster,35(1):53-60(in Chinese).
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江苏省气象局预报课题组,1998.江苏重要天气分析和预报(上册)[M].北京:气象出版社:1-20. Forecasting Subject Group of Jiangsu Meteorological Office, 1998. Important Weather Analysis and Forecast of Jiangsu Province(Volume I)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:1-20(in Chinese).李崇银,1982.论江淮气旋生成的一种机制[J].大气科学,6(3):258-263. Li C Y,1982. On the mechanism of the genesis of cyclone over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basin[J]. Sci Atmos Sinica,6(3):258-263(in Chinese).苗春生,宋萍,王坚红,等,2015.春夏季节黄河气旋经渤海发展时影响因子对比研究[J].气象,41(9):1068-1078. Miao C S,Song P,Wang J H,et al,2015. Comparative study of impact factors of the Yellow River cyclones over the Bohai Sea in spring and summer[J]. Meteor Mon,41(9):1068-1078(in Chinese).
陶祖钰,2011.基础理论与预报实践[J].气象,37(2):129-135. Tao Z Y,2011. Basic theories and forecast practices[J]. Meteor Mon,37(2):129-135(in Chinese).
陶祖钰,谢安,1980.对江淮气旋发生和发展条件的分析[J].气象,6(4):8-10. Tao Z Y,Xie A,1980. Analysis on occurrence and development of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Meteor Mon,6(4):8-10(in Chinese).
魏建苏,刘佳颖,孙燕,等,2013.江淮气旋的气候特征分析[J].气象科学,33(2):196-201.Wei J S,Liu J Y,Sun Y,et al,2013. Climate characteristics of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Sci Meteor Sin,33(2):196-201(in Chinese).
熊秋芬,张听,陶祖钰,2016.一次温带气旋涡度场演变特征及气旋发生发展机制分析[J].气象,42(3):294-304. Xiong Q F,Zhang X,Tao Z Y,2016. An analysis of vorticity evolution and physics mechanism on an extratropical cyclone[J]. Meteor Mon,42(3):294-304(in Chinese).
徐夏囡,焦佩金,1984.夏季江淮气旋的结构[J].大气科学,8(2):189-196. Xu X N,Jiao P J,1984. The structure of cyclone over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in summer[J]. Sci AtmosSinica,8(2):189-196(in Chinese).
张汝秀,王蒸民,1988.江淮气旋的结构特征[J].气象科学,8(1):75-82, Zhang R X, Wang Z M, 1988. The structure features of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Scientia Meteor Sinica, 8(1):75-82(in Chinese).
郑媛媛,张小玲,朱红芳,等,2009.2007年7月8日特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,35(2):3-7. Zheng Y Y,Zhang X L,Zhu H F,et al,2009. Mesoscale characteristic analysis of the excessive storm on July 8,2007[J]. Meteor Mon,35(2):3-7(in Chinese).
周小刚,王秀明,陶祖钰,2013.准地转理论基本问题回顾与讨论[J].气象,39(4):401-409. Zhou X G. Wang X M,Tao Z Y,2013. Review and discussion of some basic problems of the quasi-geostrophic theory[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):401-409(in Chinese).
Keyser D,Reeder M J,Reed R J,1988. A generalization of Petterssen's frontogenesis function and its relation to the forcing of vertical motion[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 116(3):762-780.
Petterssen S,1956. Weather Analysis and Forecasting[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill:428.
Shen Y,Zhao P,Pan Y,et al,2014. A high spatiotemporal gauge-satellite merged precipitation analysis over China[J]. J Geophys Res,119(6):3063-3075.
陈永林,曹晓岗,刘敏,等,2013.一次源于高原东侧低涡的江淮气旋形成及结构分析[J].热带气象学报,29(5):793-802. Chen Y L,Cao X G,Liu M,et al,2013. An analysis on the generation and structure of a cyclone over Yangtze-Huaihe River valleys associated with the vortex on the east side of Tibetan Plateau[J]. J Trop Meteor,29(5):793-802(in Chinese).
陈筱秋,王咏青,2016.基于NECP资料的一次东移引发暴雨的江淮气旋结构特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,35(1):53-60. Chen X Q,Wang Y Q,2016. Structure and mechanism analysis of a Jianghuai cyclone with an eastern path and heavyrain based on NCEP data[J]. Torrential Rain Disaster,35(1):53-60(in Chinese).
陈玥,谌芸,陈涛,等,2016.长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析[J].气象,42(6):724-731. Chen Y,Chen Y,Chen T,et al,2016.Characteristics analysis of warm sector rainstorms over the middle lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Meteor Mon,42(6):724-731(in Chinese).
侯定臣.1991.夏季江淮气旋的准地转诊断分析[J].南京气象学院学报,14(4):524-531. Hou DC,1991. A quasi-geostrophic diagnosis of the summer cyclones over the Changjiang-Huaihe Valley[J]. J Nanjing Institure Meteor, 14(4):524-531(in Chinese).
侯定臣,1992.夏季江淮气旋结构的比较分析[J].气象科学,12(1):93-99. Hou D C,1992. A comparative study on the structures of summer cyclones over the Changjiang-Huaihe Valley[J]. Scientia Meteor Sinica,12(1):93-99(in Chinese).
黄士松,林元弼,韦统健,等,1976.江淮气旋发生发展和暴雨过程及有关预报问题的研究[J].大气科学,1(1):27-41.Huang S S,Lin Y B,Wei T J,et al. 1976. Studies of the Changjiang-Huaihe cyclogenesis and its development and the rainstorm process and the related forecast questions[J]. Sci Atmos Sinica, 1(1):27-41(in Chinese).
江苏省气象局预报课题组,1998.江苏重要天气分析和预报(上册)[M].北京:气象出版社:1-20. Forecasting Subject Group of Jiangsu Meteorological Office, 1998. Important Weather Analysis and Forecast of Jiangsu Province(Volume I)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:1-20(in Chinese).李崇银,1982.论江淮气旋生成的一种机制[J].大气科学,6(3):258-263. Li C Y,1982. On the mechanism of the genesis of cyclone over the Changjiang and Huaihe River Basin[J]. Sci Atmos Sinica,6(3):258-263(in Chinese).苗春生,宋萍,王坚红,等,2015.春夏季节黄河气旋经渤海发展时影响因子对比研究[J].气象,41(9):1068-1078. Miao C S,Song P,Wang J H,et al,2015. Comparative study of impact factors of the Yellow River cyclones over the Bohai Sea in spring and summer[J]. Meteor Mon,41(9):1068-1078(in Chinese).
陶祖钰,2011.基础理论与预报实践[J].气象,37(2):129-135. Tao Z Y,2011. Basic theories and forecast practices[J]. Meteor Mon,37(2):129-135(in Chinese).
陶祖钰,谢安,1980.对江淮气旋发生和发展条件的分析[J].气象,6(4):8-10. Tao Z Y,Xie A,1980. Analysis on occurrence and development of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Meteor Mon,6(4):8-10(in Chinese).
魏建苏,刘佳颖,孙燕,等,2013.江淮气旋的气候特征分析[J].气象科学,33(2):196-201.Wei J S,Liu J Y,Sun Y,et al,2013. Climate characteristics of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Sci Meteor Sin,33(2):196-201(in Chinese).
熊秋芬,张听,陶祖钰,2016.一次温带气旋涡度场演变特征及气旋发生发展机制分析[J].气象,42(3):294-304. Xiong Q F,Zhang X,Tao Z Y,2016. An analysis of vorticity evolution and physics mechanism on an extratropical cyclone[J]. Meteor Mon,42(3):294-304(in Chinese).
徐夏囡,焦佩金,1984.夏季江淮气旋的结构[J].大气科学,8(2):189-196. Xu X N,Jiao P J,1984. The structure of cyclone over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley in summer[J]. Sci AtmosSinica,8(2):189-196(in Chinese).
张汝秀,王蒸民,1988.江淮气旋的结构特征[J].气象科学,8(1):75-82, Zhang R X, Wang Z M, 1988. The structure features of Jiang-Huai cyclone[J]. Scientia Meteor Sinica, 8(1):75-82(in Chinese).
郑媛媛,张小玲,朱红芳,等,2009.2007年7月8日特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,35(2):3-7. Zheng Y Y,Zhang X L,Zhu H F,et al,2009. Mesoscale characteristic analysis of the excessive storm on July 8,2007[J]. Meteor Mon,35(2):3-7(in Chinese).
周小刚,王秀明,陶祖钰,2013.准地转理论基本问题回顾与讨论[J].气象,39(4):401-409. Zhou X G. Wang X M,Tao Z Y,2013. Review and discussion of some basic problems of the quasi-geostrophic theory[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):401-409(in Chinese).
Keyser D,Reeder M J,Reed R J,1988. A generalization of Petterssen's frontogenesis function and its relation to the forcing of vertical motion[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 116(3):762-780.
Petterssen S,1956. Weather Analysis and Forecasting[M]. New York:McGraw-Hill:428.
Shen Y,Zhao P,Pan Y,et al,2014. A high spatiotemporal gauge-satellite merged precipitation analysis over China[J]. J Geophys Res,119(6):3063-3075.
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