从巴黎到卡托维兹:全球气候治理中的统一和分裂
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摘要
《巴黎协定》达成之后的实施细则谈判从一开始就面临各种挑战。尽管如此,卡托维兹气候大会基本完成了实施细则的磋商,通过统一规则的制定夯实了基于规则的气候治理框架,为"自下而上"的松散协定注入了更多规则绑定强制性色彩,提升了协定的法律地位。会议也见证了气候世界的分裂,包括主要缔约方立场的退化、谈判集团的分化重组、利益集团的博弈、对科学报告的分歧等,从而使关于力度的磋商没有实质进展。从巴黎到卡托维兹的谈判路程表明治理全球化、治理效率以及国家主权之间暂时存在"不可能三角"。未来的谈判应促进从规则到行动的转变。
The negotiation on rule book of Paris Agreement faces challenges as soon as it was started.Nevertheless, the negotiation was generally done in Katowice climate conference by passing the rule book by which the rule-based climate regime is enhanced. Meanwhile, the rule book injects more attribution of ‘top-down'to Paris Agreement which is characterized by ‘bottom-up' and loose mechanisms, as a result the legal position of Paris Agreement is promoted. However, the conference also witnessed further separation of the climate world,shown as the union or re-grouping of negotiation groups, the degradation of major parties, arguments from interest groups, disagreements on latest sciences output. All these made no progress in ambition promotion. The road from Paris to Katowice shows we can't simultaneously pursue governance efficiency, national self-determination, and global climate governance. Future negotiation should convert unified rules to real actions.
The negotiation on rule book of Paris Agreement faces challenges as soon as it was started.Nevertheless, the negotiation was generally done in Katowice climate conference by passing the rule book by which the rule-based climate regime is enhanced. Meanwhile, the rule book injects more attribution of ‘top-down'to Paris Agreement which is characterized by ‘bottom-up' and loose mechanisms, as a result the legal position of Paris Agreement is promoted. However, the conference also witnessed further separation of the climate world,shown as the union or re-grouping of negotiation groups, the degradation of major parties, arguments from interest groups, disagreements on latest sciences output. All these made no progress in ambition promotion. The road from Paris to Katowice shows we can't simultaneously pursue governance efficiency, national self-determination, and global climate governance. Future negotiation should convert unified rules to real actions.
引文
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[2]UNFCCC. Decisions adopted at the climate change conference in Katowice, Poland, 2?14 December 2018[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-20].https://unfccc.int/katowice
[3]UNFCCC. Matters relating to article 6 of the Paris Agreement and paragraphs 36–40 of decision 1/CP.21[R/OL].2018[2018-12-15].https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/auv_cp24_i4_Art.6.pdf
[4]UNFCCC. 1/CMA.1:matters relating to the implementation of the Paris Agreement[R/OL]. 2016[2017-01-31]. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/cma1/eng/03a01.pdf
[5]朱松丽,高翔.从哥本哈根到巴黎:国际气候制度的变迁和发展[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2017
[6]Damassa T. Interpreting NDCs:assessing transparency of post-2020greenhouse gas emissions targets for 8 top-emitting economies[R/OL].2015[2017-08-01]. http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI_WP_InterpretingNDCs.pdf
[7]UNFCCC. 1/CP.23:Fiji momentum for implementation[R/OL]. 2017[2018-05-31]. https://unfccc.int/decisions?f%5B0%5D=session%3 A4102
[8]UNFCCC. PAWP compilation, version of 9 September[R/OL]. 2018[2018-09-10]. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Latest%20PAWP%20documents_9Sep.pdf
[9]周琪,付随鑫.美国的反全球化及其对国际秩序的影响[J].太平洋学报, 2017(4):1-13
[10]刘明礼.西方国家“反全球化”现象透析[J].现代国际关系, 2017(1):32-37, 44, 63-64
[11]马峰.全球化与不平等:欧美国家民粹浪潮成因分析[J].社会主义研究, 2017(1):129-140
[12]朱松丽,高世宪,崔成.美国气候变化政策演变及原因和影响分析[J].中国能源, 2017, 39(10):19-24, 31
[13]朱松丽.美国能源/气候调整对斐济/波恩气候大会的影响[J].中国经贸导刊, 2018, 1(下):67-69
[14]Tollefson J. Brazil’s lawmakers push to weaken environmental rules[J].Nature, 2018, 557:17
[15]Karl M, Megan D, Natalie S. Leaked:draft UN declaration to “ensure decent future” for fossil fuel workers[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-04].http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/09/24/leaked-draft-undeclaration-ensure-decent-future-fossil-fuel-workers/
[16]Polish Government. The ministerial Katowice declaration on forests for the climate[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-18]. https://cop24.gov.pl/fileadmin/user_upload/Ministerial_Katowice_Declaration_on_Forests_for_Climate_OFFICIAL_ENG.pdf
[17]Beddington J. Letter from scientists to the EU parliament regarding forest biomass[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-11]. https://www.dropbox.com/s/l8sx5bl0h02x395/UPDATE%20800%20signatures_Scientist%20Letter%20on%20EU%20Forest%20Biomass.pdf?dl=0
[18]Third World Network. Decisions for implementation of Paris Agreement adopted[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-18]. https://twnetwork.org/sites/default/files/TWN_update13_5.pdf
[19]High Ambition Coalition. Statement on stepping up climate ambition[R/OL]. 2018[2018-12-12]. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/news/20181211_statement_en.pdf
[20]Climate Action Network. Issue 6 of ECO newsletter for COP24.2018[2018-12-06]. http://www.climatenetwork.org/sites/default/files/eco_08.12.2018.pdf
[21]Rodrik D. The globalization paradox:democracy and the future of the world economy[R]. New York and London:W. W. Norton, 2012:368
[22]葛浩阳.经济全球化真的逆转了吗:基于马克思主义经济全球化理论的探析[J].经济学家, 2018(4):11-18
[23]Climate Action Tracker. CAT warning projections global update[EB/OL]. 2018[2018-12-12].https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/warming-projections-global-update-dec-2018/
[24]Figueres C, QuéréC L, Mahindra A, et al. Emissions are still rising:rump up the cuts[J]. Nature, 2018, 564:27-30
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