生产服务业开放对中国产业生产率的影响及其国际比较
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摘要
从生产服务业引进来和走出去的角度分析生产服务业开放对产业生产率的影响机理,进而基于灰色系统理论模型和增长核算框架,分析自2004年以来生产服务业开放对三次产业产出增长的贡献并进行国际比较研究。结果表明:生产服务业及其细分行业开放对服务业的贡献率最大,对工业的贡献率次之,对农业的贡献率最低;生产服务业细分行业中,研发设计与其他技术服务和信息服务的开放对该产业的贡献始终居前两位;与其他国家相比较,生产服务业开放对中国三次产业劳动生产率的增长贡献最大,但目前我国三次产业的劳动生产率相比发达国家还有一定差距。因而应加大先进生产服务技术的引进力度,重视生产服务的技术创新,以缩小中国与发达国家产业劳动生产率的差距。
This paper describes the theoretical mechanism of productivity affected by the opening of producer services from the introduction and going out of producer services,and analyzes the contribution of the opening of producer services to the output growth of the three industries since 2004 based on the grey system theory model and the growth accounting framework and makes an international comparison. The results show that the contribution rate by the opening of producer services and its subdivisions to services is the largest,followed by industry and agriculture; in the internal structure of the opening of producer services,R&D and other technological services and information services have always been the top contribution to industrial growth; compared with the United States and other countries,the opening of producer services has made the greatest contribution to the growth of labor productivity in China's three industries,but there is still a certain gap between China and developed countries. It is proposed that we should increase the import of advanced producer services technology,and attach importance to the innovation of producer services technology,in order to narrow the gap between China and developed countries in the development of industrial labor productivity.
This paper describes the theoretical mechanism of productivity affected by the opening of producer services from the introduction and going out of producer services,and analyzes the contribution of the opening of producer services to the output growth of the three industries since 2004 based on the grey system theory model and the growth accounting framework and makes an international comparison. The results show that the contribution rate by the opening of producer services and its subdivisions to services is the largest,followed by industry and agriculture; in the internal structure of the opening of producer services,R&D and other technological services and information services have always been the top contribution to industrial growth; compared with the United States and other countries,the opening of producer services has made the greatest contribution to the growth of labor productivity in China's three industries,but there is still a certain gap between China and developed countries. It is proposed that we should increase the import of advanced producer services technology,and attach importance to the innovation of producer services technology,in order to narrow the gap between China and developed countries in the development of industrial labor productivity.
引文
[1]KUGLER M,E VERHOOGEN.Prices,plant size,and product quality[J].Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(1):307-339.
[2]BAS M,V STRAUSS-KAHN.Input-trade liberalization,export prices and quality upgrading[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2):250-262.
[3]FAN H,X GAO,Y A LI,et al.Trade liberalization and markups:micro evidence from China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2017,46(1):103-130.
[4]余淼杰,李乐融.贸易自由化与进口中间品质量升级:来自中国海关产品层面的证据[J].经济学(季刊),2016(3):1012-1030.
[5]盛斌,毛其淋.进口贸易自由化是否影响了中国制造业出口技术复杂度[J].世界经济,2017(12):52-75.
[6]祝树金,钟腾龙,李仁宇.中间品贸易自由化与多产品出口企业的产品加成率[J].中国工业经济,2018(1):41-59.
[7]李惠娟,蔡伟宏.参与全球价值链分工提升了生产率和工资份额吗:来自服务业的证据[J].广东财经大学学报,2016(5):16-26.
[8]LIU H,T YANG.Explaining the productivity growth gap between China and India:the role of structural transformation[J].Developing E-conomies,2015,53(2):100-121.
[9]BROWN W M,S M FERGUSON,C VIJU.Agricultural trade reform,reallocation and technical change:evidence from the Canadian prairies[R].NBER Working Paper,No.23857,2017.
[10]CRESPO N,M P FONTOURA.Determinants factors of FDI spillovers-what do we really know[J].World Development,2007,35(3):410-425.
[11]HERZER D.The long-run relationship between outward FDI and domestic output:evidence from panel data[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(1):136-149.
[12]戴翔.“走出去”促进我国本土企业生产率提升了吗?[J].世界经济研究,2016(2):78-89.
[13]程大中.中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响[J].经济研究,2008(1):76-88.
[14]SAGGI K.Trade,foreign direct investment,and international technology transfer:a survey[J].World Bank Research Observer,2002,17(2):191-235.
[15]HOEKMAN B M,K E MASKUS,K SAGGI.Transfer of technology to developing countries:unilateral and multilateral policy options[J].World Development,2005,33(10):1587-1602.
[16]TANG P J G,A WOOD.Globalization,co-operation costs and wage inequalities[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2006,58(4):569-595.
[17]FUJIMORI A,T SATO.Productivity and technology diffusion in India:the spillover effects from foreign direct investment[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2015,37:630-651.
[18]权衡.经济全球化发展:实践困境与理论反思[J].复旦学报:社会科学版,2017(6):155-164.
[19]MA X,Z B LIU.The kernel-based nonlinear multivariate grey model[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2018,56(4):217-238.
[20]陈明,魏作磊.生产性服务业开放对中国服务业生产率的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(5):95-110.
[21]孙得将,李江帆.生产服务业比率时序稳定性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013(10):35-48.
[22]陈明,魏作磊.服务业开放打破中国制造业“低端锁定”了吗?[J].经济学家,2018(2):70-79.
[23]李江帆,蓝文妍,朱胜勇.第三产业生产服务业:概念与趋势分析[J].经济学家,2014(1):56-64.
[24]朱明.服务投入与中国农业劳动生产率的追赶进程:对中国农业劳动生产率阶段性特征的新解释[J].财经研究,2016(7):111-121.
[25]张翼.中国劳动生产率提升:增速快但不容歇脚[N].光明日报,2016-09-18(2).
(1)本文按OECD方法划分,第一产业为农业,第二产业为工业,第三产业为服务业。
(2)根据孙得将和李江帆(2013)[21]得出的投入产出表,5年期限内生产服务业比率时序稳定的结论,本文采用2002年的投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算得出2004年~2006年的生产服务业指数值,采用2007年的投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算得出2007年~2011年的生产服务业指数值,用2012年投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算2012年~2016年的生产服务业指数值。
(3)原始数据源于相应年份的《中国统计年鉴》和《中国对外直接投资统计公报》,所有以人民币(美元)为单位的值均换算成2004年不变价。
(1)根据《生产性服务业分类(2015)》,生产服务业包括货物运输仓储和邮政快递服务、研发设计与其他技术服务、信息服务、生产性租赁服务、金融服务、商务服务等。
[2]BAS M,V STRAUSS-KAHN.Input-trade liberalization,export prices and quality upgrading[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,95(2):250-262.
[3]FAN H,X GAO,Y A LI,et al.Trade liberalization and markups:micro evidence from China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2017,46(1):103-130.
[4]余淼杰,李乐融.贸易自由化与进口中间品质量升级:来自中国海关产品层面的证据[J].经济学(季刊),2016(3):1012-1030.
[5]盛斌,毛其淋.进口贸易自由化是否影响了中国制造业出口技术复杂度[J].世界经济,2017(12):52-75.
[6]祝树金,钟腾龙,李仁宇.中间品贸易自由化与多产品出口企业的产品加成率[J].中国工业经济,2018(1):41-59.
[7]李惠娟,蔡伟宏.参与全球价值链分工提升了生产率和工资份额吗:来自服务业的证据[J].广东财经大学学报,2016(5):16-26.
[8]LIU H,T YANG.Explaining the productivity growth gap between China and India:the role of structural transformation[J].Developing E-conomies,2015,53(2):100-121.
[9]BROWN W M,S M FERGUSON,C VIJU.Agricultural trade reform,reallocation and technical change:evidence from the Canadian prairies[R].NBER Working Paper,No.23857,2017.
[10]CRESPO N,M P FONTOURA.Determinants factors of FDI spillovers-what do we really know[J].World Development,2007,35(3):410-425.
[11]HERZER D.The long-run relationship between outward FDI and domestic output:evidence from panel data[J].Economics Letters,2008,100(1):136-149.
[12]戴翔.“走出去”促进我国本土企业生产率提升了吗?[J].世界经济研究,2016(2):78-89.
[13]程大中.中国生产性服务业的水平、结构及影响[J].经济研究,2008(1):76-88.
[14]SAGGI K.Trade,foreign direct investment,and international technology transfer:a survey[J].World Bank Research Observer,2002,17(2):191-235.
[15]HOEKMAN B M,K E MASKUS,K SAGGI.Transfer of technology to developing countries:unilateral and multilateral policy options[J].World Development,2005,33(10):1587-1602.
[16]TANG P J G,A WOOD.Globalization,co-operation costs and wage inequalities[J].Oxford Economic Papers,2006,58(4):569-595.
[17]FUJIMORI A,T SATO.Productivity and technology diffusion in India:the spillover effects from foreign direct investment[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2015,37:630-651.
[18]权衡.经济全球化发展:实践困境与理论反思[J].复旦学报:社会科学版,2017(6):155-164.
[19]MA X,Z B LIU.The kernel-based nonlinear multivariate grey model[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2018,56(4):217-238.
[20]陈明,魏作磊.生产性服务业开放对中国服务业生产率的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(5):95-110.
[21]孙得将,李江帆.生产服务业比率时序稳定性研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013(10):35-48.
[22]陈明,魏作磊.服务业开放打破中国制造业“低端锁定”了吗?[J].经济学家,2018(2):70-79.
[23]李江帆,蓝文妍,朱胜勇.第三产业生产服务业:概念与趋势分析[J].经济学家,2014(1):56-64.
[24]朱明.服务投入与中国农业劳动生产率的追赶进程:对中国农业劳动生产率阶段性特征的新解释[J].财经研究,2016(7):111-121.
[25]张翼.中国劳动生产率提升:增速快但不容歇脚[N].光明日报,2016-09-18(2).
(1)本文按OECD方法划分,第一产业为农业,第二产业为工业,第三产业为服务业。
(2)根据孙得将和李江帆(2013)[21]得出的投入产出表,5年期限内生产服务业比率时序稳定的结论,本文采用2002年的投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算得出2004年~2006年的生产服务业指数值,采用2007年的投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算得出2007年~2011年的生产服务业指数值,用2012年投入产出表中的直接消耗系数计算2012年~2016年的生产服务业指数值。
(3)原始数据源于相应年份的《中国统计年鉴》和《中国对外直接投资统计公报》,所有以人民币(美元)为单位的值均换算成2004年不变价。
(1)根据《生产性服务业分类(2015)》,生产服务业包括货物运输仓储和邮政快递服务、研发设计与其他技术服务、信息服务、生产性租赁服务、金融服务、商务服务等。
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