Spike-Grain Structure of Winter Wheat and Its Climate Change Tendency in Jiangsu
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摘要
To scientifically respond to the impact of climate change on winter wheat production,spike-grain structure data of winter wheat at Jiangsu Phenometeorological Observatory were taken as the sample. Based on agrometeorology,statistics and GIS analytical technique,status quo of spike-grain structure of winter wheat in Jiangsu and its climate change tendency were analyzed systemically. The results showed that climate change rate( CTR) of mature spike number( NS) was between-53. 37 and 256. 51 spikes/( m~2·10 a),and mean of whole province was 21.45 spikes/( m~2·10 a). CTR of number of grains per panicle( GNPS) was between-0. 58 and 12. 52 grains/( spike·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 39 grains/( spike·10 a). CTR of thousand-grain weight( TSW) was between-1. 65 and 16. 39 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 86 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a). For the means of NS,GNPS,and TSW in whole province,they all showed the increasing trend with climate change,and they were just unbalanced among regions. Climate change induced the variation of meteorological conditions during growth period of winter wheat in Jiangsu. The variation of unity yield( UY) caused by this kind of change trend only accounted for-4. 32%-17. 23% of that in normal climate years,and mean of whole province was 6. 4%. That is to say,comprehensive impact of meteorological condition was favorable for improving the yield of winter wheat with climate change. Therefore,coordination level of winter wheat growth and real-time meteorological conditions could be regulated by breeding the varieties with wide climate suitability,regulating sowing date and density according to local production and management level,rational fertilization and applying growth regulator,to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on winter wheat production,and reach high yield and quality.
To scientifically respond to the impact of climate change on winter wheat production,spike-grain structure data of winter wheat at Jiangsu Phenometeorological Observatory were taken as the sample. Based on agrometeorology,statistics and GIS analytical technique,status quo of spike-grain structure of winter wheat in Jiangsu and its climate change tendency were analyzed systemically. The results showed that climate change rate( CTR) of mature spike number( NS) was between-53. 37 and 256. 51 spikes/( m~2·10 a),and mean of whole province was 21.45 spikes/( m~2·10 a). CTR of number of grains per panicle( GNPS) was between-0. 58 and 12. 52 grains/( spike·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 39 grains/( spike·10 a). CTR of thousand-grain weight( TSW) was between-1. 65 and 16. 39 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 86 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a). For the means of NS,GNPS,and TSW in whole province,they all showed the increasing trend with climate change,and they were just unbalanced among regions. Climate change induced the variation of meteorological conditions during growth period of winter wheat in Jiangsu. The variation of unity yield( UY) caused by this kind of change trend only accounted for-4. 32%-17. 23% of that in normal climate years,and mean of whole province was 6. 4%. That is to say,comprehensive impact of meteorological condition was favorable for improving the yield of winter wheat with climate change. Therefore,coordination level of winter wheat growth and real-time meteorological conditions could be regulated by breeding the varieties with wide climate suitability,regulating sowing date and density according to local production and management level,rational fertilization and applying growth regulator,to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on winter wheat production,and reach high yield and quality.
To scientifically respond to the impact of climate change on winter wheat production,spike-grain structure data of winter wheat at Jiangsu Phenometeorological Observatory were taken as the sample. Based on agrometeorology,statistics and GIS analytical technique,status quo of spike-grain structure of winter wheat in Jiangsu and its climate change tendency were analyzed systemically. The results showed that climate change rate( CTR) of mature spike number( NS) was between-53. 37 and 256. 51 spikes/( m~2·10 a),and mean of whole province was 21.45 spikes/( m~2·10 a). CTR of number of grains per panicle( GNPS) was between-0. 58 and 12. 52 grains/( spike·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 39 grains/( spike·10 a). CTR of thousand-grain weight( TSW) was between-1. 65 and 16. 39 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a),and mean of whole province was 2. 86 g/( 1 000 grains·10 a). For the means of NS,GNPS,and TSW in whole province,they all showed the increasing trend with climate change,and they were just unbalanced among regions. Climate change induced the variation of meteorological conditions during growth period of winter wheat in Jiangsu. The variation of unity yield( UY) caused by this kind of change trend only accounted for-4. 32%-17. 23% of that in normal climate years,and mean of whole province was 6. 4%. That is to say,comprehensive impact of meteorological condition was favorable for improving the yield of winter wheat with climate change. Therefore,coordination level of winter wheat growth and real-time meteorological conditions could be regulated by breeding the varieties with wide climate suitability,regulating sowing date and density according to local production and management level,rational fertilization and applying growth regulator,to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on winter wheat production,and reach high yield and quality.
引文
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[18]YU WD,CHEN HL.Study on precise comprehensive agricultural climate regional planning of quality wheat in Henan Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2010,26(11):381-385.(in Chinese).
[19]LI WJ,WANG CY.Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2010,6(2):123-129.(in Chinese).
[20]LI WJ,LIANG H,WANG PJ.Effects of climate warming on the planting boundary and developmental stages of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):382-388.(in Chinese).
[21]CHANG HL,LAN F.Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain[J].Field Crops Research,2013,143:98-105.
[22]JULIA W,DAVID M.A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies[J].Field Crops Research,2014,156:180-190.
[23]TOBIAS J,ULF B,HENNING K.An analysis of factors determining spatial variable grain yield of winter wheat[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2014,52:297-306.
[24]TALUKDER ASMHM,GLENN KM,GURJEET SG.Effect of shortterm heat stress prior to flowering and early grain seton the grain yield of wheat[J].Field Crops Research,2014,160:54-63.
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[26]NEMAT AN,SAUDY HS,ASHMAWY F,et al.Grain yield response index of bread wheat cultivars as influenced by nitrogen levels[J].Annals of Agricultural Science,2014,58(2):147-152.
[27]HU X,REN DC,NI YJ,et al.Impacts of late frost on grain yield and its components of winter wheat[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(5):575-580.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.05.015.(in Chinese).
[28]ZHENG JM,LI P,LIAO XH,et al.Preliminary study on yield component factors of Sichuan winter wheat[J].Crops,2012(1):105-108.(in Chinese).
[29]China Meteorological Administration.Agrometeorological observation code(I)[M].Beijing:Meteorological Publishing House,1993.(in Chinese).()
[30]SHANG ZT,JIANG D,HE L.The research development about influence of climatic change on wheat production[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(21):6-11.(in Chinese).
[31]SHANG ZT,HE L,LIU SC,et al.Effect of climate change on cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence degree[J].Agricultural Science&Technology,2012,13(4):784-788,887.
[32]MA KY,ZHANG YC,CHEN X.Modern applied statistics[M].Beijing:Meteorological Publishing House,2004.(in Chinese).
[33]WU DL,WANG CY,XUE HX,et al.The drought risk zoning of winter wheat in North China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(3):0760-0769.(in Chinese).
[34]WU RJ,SHI JQ,GUAN FL,et al.Integrated index construction and zoning of drought risk:A case study of winter wheat area in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,23(1):145-152.(in Chinese).
[35]SHANG ZT,HE L,SHANG S,et al.Climate characteristics during growth period of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2015,43(3):56-62.doi:10.15889/j.issn.1002-1302.2015.03.018.(in Chinese).
[2]IPCC.Climate change 1995:the science of climate change:Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[3]IPCC.Climate change 2001:the scientific basis:Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
[4]IPCC.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis:Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[5]IPCC.Contribution of working group I to the IPCC fifth assessment report,climate change 2013:the physical science basis:Summary for policymakers[R/OL].2013.http://www.climate change2013.org/images/upload/WGIAR5SPM_Approvode27Sep2013.pdf.
[6]IPCC.Contribution of working group I to the IPCC fifth assessment report(AR5).Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Final draft underlying scientific-technical assessment[R/OL].2013-10-28.http://www.climate change 2013.org/images/upload/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_All.pdf.
[7]KRAMER K.A modeling analysis of the effects of climatic warming on the probability of spring frost damage to tree species in the Netherlands and Germany[J].Plant,Cell&Environment,1994(17):367-377.
[8]MAAK K,VON STORCH H.Statistical downscaling of monthly mean air temperature to the beginning of flowering of Galanthus nivalis L.in northern Germany[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,1997(41):5-12.
[9]SHANG ZT,WANG XC,YANG L,et al.Effect on the production of wheat by weather warming and the step of managing of productions[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1999,19(1):92-98.(in Chinese).
[10]ZHANG Y,WANG SL,WANG FT.Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(3):264-270.(in Chinese).
[11]HUANG F,SHI XM,ZHENG PH,et al.Regional simulation of spring wheat growth in Ningxia under the climatic change conditions[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(9):118-122.(in Chinese).
[12]SETIYONO TD,WEISS A,SPECHT J,et al.Understanding and modeling the effect of temperature and daylength on soybean phenology under high-yield conditions[J].Field Crops Research,2007(100):257-271.
[13]JING YG,FAN JZ,GAO MS.Influences of the climate warming on developmental stages of winter wheat in Shaanxi[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):389-396.(in Chinese).
[14]HU W,YAN CR,LI YC,et al.Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growing period and irrigation water requirements in the north china plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(9):2367-2377.(in Chinese).
[15]DAI XS.Potential effects of climatic variation on geographical distribution of wheat in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(1):19-35.(in Chinese).
[16]XU B,XIN XP,TANG HJ,et al.The influence and strategy of global climate change to agricultural geographical distribution[J].Progress in Geography,1999,18(4):316-321.(in Chinese).
[17]LV JJ,WU JG.Advances in the effects of climate change on the distribution of plant species and vegetation in China[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2009,32(6):85-95.(in Chinese).
[18]YU WD,CHEN HL.Study on precise comprehensive agricultural climate regional planning of quality wheat in Henan Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2010,26(11):381-385.(in Chinese).
[19]LI WJ,WANG CY.Impacts of climate change on crop planting structure in China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2010,6(2):123-129.(in Chinese).
[20]LI WJ,LIANG H,WANG PJ.Effects of climate warming on the planting boundary and developmental stages of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):382-388.(in Chinese).
[21]CHANG HL,LAN F.Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain[J].Field Crops Research,2013,143:98-105.
[22]JULIA W,DAVID M.A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies[J].Field Crops Research,2014,156:180-190.
[23]TOBIAS J,ULF B,HENNING K.An analysis of factors determining spatial variable grain yield of winter wheat[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2014,52:297-306.
[24]TALUKDER ASMHM,GLENN KM,GURJEET SG.Effect of shortterm heat stress prior to flowering and early grain seton the grain yield of wheat[J].Field Crops Research,2014,160:54-63.
[25]MIRJAM R,PATRICIA T,GRANT C,et al.Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand:A case study of UK production under climate change constraints[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2014,39:13-24.
[26]NEMAT AN,SAUDY HS,ASHMAWY F,et al.Grain yield response index of bread wheat cultivars as influenced by nitrogen levels[J].Annals of Agricultural Science,2014,58(2):147-152.
[27]HU X,REN DC,NI YJ,et al.Impacts of late frost on grain yield and its components of winter wheat[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(5):575-580.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2014.05.015.(in Chinese).
[28]ZHENG JM,LI P,LIAO XH,et al.Preliminary study on yield component factors of Sichuan winter wheat[J].Crops,2012(1):105-108.(in Chinese).
[29]China Meteorological Administration.Agrometeorological observation code(I)[M].Beijing:Meteorological Publishing House,1993.(in Chinese).()
[30]SHANG ZT,JIANG D,HE L.The research development about influence of climatic change on wheat production[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(21):6-11.(in Chinese).
[31]SHANG ZT,HE L,LIU SC,et al.Effect of climate change on cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence degree[J].Agricultural Science&Technology,2012,13(4):784-788,887.
[32]MA KY,ZHANG YC,CHEN X.Modern applied statistics[M].Beijing:Meteorological Publishing House,2004.(in Chinese).
[33]WU DL,WANG CY,XUE HX,et al.The drought risk zoning of winter wheat in North China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(3):0760-0769.(in Chinese).
[34]WU RJ,SHI JQ,GUAN FL,et al.Integrated index construction and zoning of drought risk:A case study of winter wheat area in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2013,23(1):145-152.(in Chinese).
[35]SHANG ZT,HE L,SHANG S,et al.Climate characteristics during growth period of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2015,43(3):56-62.doi:10.15889/j.issn.1002-1302.2015.03.018.(in Chinese).
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