产业共性技术扩散的演化博弈分析
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摘要
基于产业共性技术扩散的演化机理分析,结合累积前景理论,构建产业共性技术扩散三阶段演化博弈模型,研究不同演化阶段产业共性技术扩散的主体行为及影响机制.结果表明:政府对产业共性技术采纳起到决定性作用,在产业共性技术二次创新过程中起到中介作用,但对共性技术产品定价作用不大;企业对二次创新方式的选择,更多考虑创新知识溢出而不是额外收益;在附随产品扩散阶段,产业共性技术的技术性能是影响扩散的首要因素.
Based on the evolution mechanism analysis of industrial generic technology diffusion, combined with the cumulative prospect theory, the three stage evolutionary game model of industrial generic technology diffusion is constructed,and the subject behavior and influence mechanism of industrial generic technology diffusion in different stages of evolution are analyzed. The conclusion indicated that the government plays a decisive role in the adoption of industrial generic technology, and an important intermediary role in the secondary innovation process, but it has little effect on the pricing of generic technology products; more consideration is given to the enterprise's knowledge spillover of innovation rather than the additional income in the process of choosing innovation method; the technical performance of industrial generic technology is the primary factor affecting diffusion in the accompanying product diffusion stage.
Based on the evolution mechanism analysis of industrial generic technology diffusion, combined with the cumulative prospect theory, the three stage evolutionary game model of industrial generic technology diffusion is constructed,and the subject behavior and influence mechanism of industrial generic technology diffusion in different stages of evolution are analyzed. The conclusion indicated that the government plays a decisive role in the adoption of industrial generic technology, and an important intermediary role in the secondary innovation process, but it has little effect on the pricing of generic technology products; more consideration is given to the enterprise's knowledge spillover of innovation rather than the additional income in the process of choosing innovation method; the technical performance of industrial generic technology is the primary factor affecting diffusion in the accompanying product diffusion stage.
引文
[1]MA Xiaonan,GENG Dianhe.R&D game and government subsidy of strategic emerging industry commonality technology.Research on Economics and Management,2014(1):73-78.(马晓楠,耿殿贺.战略性新兴产业共性技术研发博弈与政府补贴.经济与管理研究,2014(1):73-78.)
[2]CHEN Jing,TANG Wuxiang.Analysis of generic technology’s characteristic and phenomenon of failure.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2007,28(12):5-8.(陈静,唐五湘.共性技术的特性和失灵现象分析.科学学与科学技术管理,2007,28(12):5-8.)
[3]ZOU Qiao.Elements of common technology diffusion.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2011,28(15):15-17.(邹樵.共性技术扩散的构成要素.科技进步与对策,2011,28(15):15-17.)
[4]ZHOU Yuan.Empirical study on influencing factors of generic enabling technologies’diffusion during the period of manufacturing paradigm shift.China Soft Science,2018(1):19-32.(周源.制造范式升级期共性使能技术扩散的影响因素分析与实证研究.中国软科学,2018(1):19-32.)
[5]SCHAEFER A,SCHIESS D,WEHRLI R.Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies.Economic Modelling,2014,37(574):23-31.
[6]HAN Yuanjian,CHEN Qiang.Policy evolution of government support for generic technology R&D in the United States and its implications:Perspectives of theory,institution and practice.China Soft Science,2015,(5):160-172.(韩元建,陈强.美国政府支持共性技术研发的政策演进及启示――理论、制度和实践的不同视角.中国软科学,2015,(5):160-172.)
[7]DANG Xinghua,LI Li.Research on knowledge creation model in the technology innovation cooperation based on the perspective of knowledge potential.China Soft Science,2005,(11):143-148.(党兴华,李莉.技术创新合作中基于知识位势的知识创造模型研究.中国软科学,2005,(11):143-148.)
[8]WANG Yulu,HUANG Ping,SHAN Mengmeng.Influencing mechanism of two-layer operation system of generic technology innovation platform on distributed innovation:From the perspective of innovation network.R&D Management,2016,28(3):97-106.(王宇露,黄平,单蒙蒙.共性技术创新平台的双层运作体系对分布式创新的影响机理――基于创新网络的视角.研究与发展管理,2016,28(3):97-106.)
[9]LAVIE D.Capability reconfiguration:an analysis of incumbent responses to technological change.Academy of Management Review,2006,31(1):153-174.
[10]D’IPPOLITO B,MIOZZO M,CONSOLI D.Knowledge systematisation,reconfiguration and the organisation of firms and industry:The case of design.Research Policy,2014,43(8):1334-1352.
[11]VONA F,CONSOLI D.Innovation and skill dynamics:A life-cycle approach.Documents De Travail De Lofce,2015,234(6):120-141.
[12]LU Lijun,ZHAO Yonggang.Mechanism and empirical research on technological innovation of enterprises based on industrial generic technology.Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2010(11):75-79.(陆立军,赵永刚.基于产业共性技术的企业技术创新机理与实证研究.经济问题探索,2010,(11):75-79.)
[13]ZOU Qiao,WUDING Jiabao,JIANG Jie.The network and spillover effect of common technology diffusion.Management World,2011,(1):182-183.(邹樵,吴丁佳宝,姜杰.共性技术扩散的网络与外溢效应.管理世界,2011,(1):182-183.)
[14]SU Su,XIAO Ani.Study on industrial generic technology R&D organization model based on mixed spillovers.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2012,29(5):23-28.(苏素,肖阿妮.基于混合溢出效应的产业共性技术研发组织模式研究.科技进步与对策.2012,29(5):23-28.)
[15]LIU Hongmin,YANG Yandong.Research on collaborative knowledge chain and knowledge flow model of generic technology R&D of manufacturing industry:Based on the perspective of modular coordination.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2016,33(9):41-46.(刘洪民,杨艳东.制造业共性技术研发协同知识链及知识流动模型――模块化协同视角的研究.科技进步与对策,2016,33(9):41-46.)
[16]LIU Hongmin.Innovation practice and analysis on industrial generic technology R&D organization model based on background of collaborative innovation in China.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2013,30(13):59-66.(刘洪民.协同创新背景下中国产业共性技术研发组织模式创新.科技进步与对策,2013,30(13):59-66.)
[17]TONG Yu.Innovation and integration of common technology and core technology.Scientific Management Research,2015,33(1):17-19.(童雨.共性技术和核心高技术的创新与集成研究.科学管理研究,2015,33(1):17-19.)
[18]ZHOU Xiao,SHENG Yongxiang,WU Jie,et al.Industrial generic technology R&D investment strategy of different types of governments and enterprises.Academy of Management Review,2017,29(3):98-109.(周潇,盛永祥,吴洁,等.不同类型政府和企业对产业共性技术研发的投资策略研究.研究与发展管理,2017,29(3):98-109.)
[19]FAN Xia,WU Jin.Research on policy areas of China’s generic technology innovation policy based on policy content analysis.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2014,38(8):69-76.(樊霞,吴进.基于文本分析的我国共性技术创新政策研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2014,38(8):69-76.)
[20]LI Jizhen,DENG Quwen.Multi-failure on the supply and diffusion system of industrial generic technology.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2011,32(7):5-10.(李纪珍,邓衢文.产业共性技术供给和扩散的多重失灵.科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(7):5-10.)
[21]ZOU Qiao.Generic technology diffusion mechanism and government behavior.Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2015.(邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.)
[22]SHENG Ya.Technological Innovation Diffusion and New Product Marketing.Beijing:China Development Press,2002.(盛亚.技术创新扩散与新产品营销.北京:中国发展出版社,2002.)
[23]CHU C P,PAN J G.The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2008,75(7):1054-1067.
[24]LACIANA C E,ROVERE S L.Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model:Adoption patterns vs.seeding strategies.Physica AStatistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2011,390(6):1139-1149.
[25]TURK T,TRKMAN P.Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2012,79(1):85-96.
[26]CHENG Daizhan,FU Shihua.A survey on game theoretical control.Control Theory&Applications,2018,35(5):588-592.(程代展,付世华.博弈控制论简述.控制理论与应用,2018,35(5):588-592.)
[27]REINGANUM J F.On the diffusion of new technology:a game theoretic approach.Review of Economic Studies,1981,48(3):395-405.
[28]PERES R,MULLER E,VIJAY M.Innovation diffusion and new product growth models:a critical review and research directions.International Journal of Research in Marketing,2010,27(2):91-106.
[29]VERDOLINI E,GALEOTTI M.At home and abroad:an empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies.Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,2011,61(2):119-134.
[30]SONG I.Empirical analysis of dynamic consumer choice behavior:micromodeling the new product adoption process with heterogeneous and forward-looking consumers.Chicago:The University of Chicago,2002.
[31]GAO Shiping,WU Bin,DU Jinming,et al.Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation driven by incentives.Control Theory&Applications,2018,35(5):627-636.(高世萍,武斌,杜金铭,等.激励机制下合作行为的演化动力学.控制理论与应用,2018,35(5):627-636.)
[32]LANGER T,WEBER M.Prospect theory,mental accounting,and differences in aggregated and segregated evaluation of lottery portfolios.Management Science,2001,47(5):716-733.
[33]HAN B,SCHMIDT U,ZANK H.Additive utility in prospect theory.Management Science,2009,55(5):863-873.
[34]BOCCABELLA A,NATALINI R,PARESCHI L.On a continuous mixed strategies model for evolutionary game theory.Kinetic&Related Models,2017,4(1):187-213.
[35]LUO Ruiling,FAN Tijun,XIA Haiyang.The game analysis of carbon reduction technology investment on supply chain under carbon cap-and trade rules.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2014,22(11):44-53.(骆瑞玲,范体军,夏海洋.碳排放交易政策下供应链碳减排技术投资的博弈分析.中国管理科学,2014,22(11):44-53.)
[36]WANG Guohong,LIU Junwen,XING Rui.Research on the evolution game model of synergetic innovation behavior of SMEs on perspective of co-opetition theory.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,(s1):662-666.(王国红,刘隽文,邢蕊.竞合视角下中小企业协同创新行为的演化博弈模型研究.中国管理科学,2015,(s1):662-666.)
[37]PRELEC D.The probability weighting function.Econometrica,1998,66(3):497-527.
[2]CHEN Jing,TANG Wuxiang.Analysis of generic technology’s characteristic and phenomenon of failure.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2007,28(12):5-8.(陈静,唐五湘.共性技术的特性和失灵现象分析.科学学与科学技术管理,2007,28(12):5-8.)
[3]ZOU Qiao.Elements of common technology diffusion.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2011,28(15):15-17.(邹樵.共性技术扩散的构成要素.科技进步与对策,2011,28(15):15-17.)
[4]ZHOU Yuan.Empirical study on influencing factors of generic enabling technologies’diffusion during the period of manufacturing paradigm shift.China Soft Science,2018(1):19-32.(周源.制造范式升级期共性使能技术扩散的影响因素分析与实证研究.中国软科学,2018(1):19-32.)
[5]SCHAEFER A,SCHIESS D,WEHRLI R.Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies.Economic Modelling,2014,37(574):23-31.
[6]HAN Yuanjian,CHEN Qiang.Policy evolution of government support for generic technology R&D in the United States and its implications:Perspectives of theory,institution and practice.China Soft Science,2015,(5):160-172.(韩元建,陈强.美国政府支持共性技术研发的政策演进及启示――理论、制度和实践的不同视角.中国软科学,2015,(5):160-172.)
[7]DANG Xinghua,LI Li.Research on knowledge creation model in the technology innovation cooperation based on the perspective of knowledge potential.China Soft Science,2005,(11):143-148.(党兴华,李莉.技术创新合作中基于知识位势的知识创造模型研究.中国软科学,2005,(11):143-148.)
[8]WANG Yulu,HUANG Ping,SHAN Mengmeng.Influencing mechanism of two-layer operation system of generic technology innovation platform on distributed innovation:From the perspective of innovation network.R&D Management,2016,28(3):97-106.(王宇露,黄平,单蒙蒙.共性技术创新平台的双层运作体系对分布式创新的影响机理――基于创新网络的视角.研究与发展管理,2016,28(3):97-106.)
[9]LAVIE D.Capability reconfiguration:an analysis of incumbent responses to technological change.Academy of Management Review,2006,31(1):153-174.
[10]D’IPPOLITO B,MIOZZO M,CONSOLI D.Knowledge systematisation,reconfiguration and the organisation of firms and industry:The case of design.Research Policy,2014,43(8):1334-1352.
[11]VONA F,CONSOLI D.Innovation and skill dynamics:A life-cycle approach.Documents De Travail De Lofce,2015,234(6):120-141.
[12]LU Lijun,ZHAO Yonggang.Mechanism and empirical research on technological innovation of enterprises based on industrial generic technology.Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2010(11):75-79.(陆立军,赵永刚.基于产业共性技术的企业技术创新机理与实证研究.经济问题探索,2010,(11):75-79.)
[13]ZOU Qiao,WUDING Jiabao,JIANG Jie.The network and spillover effect of common technology diffusion.Management World,2011,(1):182-183.(邹樵,吴丁佳宝,姜杰.共性技术扩散的网络与外溢效应.管理世界,2011,(1):182-183.)
[14]SU Su,XIAO Ani.Study on industrial generic technology R&D organization model based on mixed spillovers.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2012,29(5):23-28.(苏素,肖阿妮.基于混合溢出效应的产业共性技术研发组织模式研究.科技进步与对策.2012,29(5):23-28.)
[15]LIU Hongmin,YANG Yandong.Research on collaborative knowledge chain and knowledge flow model of generic technology R&D of manufacturing industry:Based on the perspective of modular coordination.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2016,33(9):41-46.(刘洪民,杨艳东.制造业共性技术研发协同知识链及知识流动模型――模块化协同视角的研究.科技进步与对策,2016,33(9):41-46.)
[16]LIU Hongmin.Innovation practice and analysis on industrial generic technology R&D organization model based on background of collaborative innovation in China.Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2013,30(13):59-66.(刘洪民.协同创新背景下中国产业共性技术研发组织模式创新.科技进步与对策,2013,30(13):59-66.)
[17]TONG Yu.Innovation and integration of common technology and core technology.Scientific Management Research,2015,33(1):17-19.(童雨.共性技术和核心高技术的创新与集成研究.科学管理研究,2015,33(1):17-19.)
[18]ZHOU Xiao,SHENG Yongxiang,WU Jie,et al.Industrial generic technology R&D investment strategy of different types of governments and enterprises.Academy of Management Review,2017,29(3):98-109.(周潇,盛永祥,吴洁,等.不同类型政府和企业对产业共性技术研发的投资策略研究.研究与发展管理,2017,29(3):98-109.)
[19]FAN Xia,WU Jin.Research on policy areas of China’s generic technology innovation policy based on policy content analysis.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2014,38(8):69-76.(樊霞,吴进.基于文本分析的我国共性技术创新政策研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2014,38(8):69-76.)
[20]LI Jizhen,DENG Quwen.Multi-failure on the supply and diffusion system of industrial generic technology.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2011,32(7):5-10.(李纪珍,邓衢文.产业共性技术供给和扩散的多重失灵.科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(7):5-10.)
[21]ZOU Qiao.Generic technology diffusion mechanism and government behavior.Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2015.(邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为.武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.)
[22]SHENG Ya.Technological Innovation Diffusion and New Product Marketing.Beijing:China Development Press,2002.(盛亚.技术创新扩散与新产品营销.北京:中国发展出版社,2002.)
[23]CHU C P,PAN J G.The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2008,75(7):1054-1067.
[24]LACIANA C E,ROVERE S L.Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model:Adoption patterns vs.seeding strategies.Physica AStatistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2011,390(6):1139-1149.
[25]TURK T,TRKMAN P.Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries.Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2012,79(1):85-96.
[26]CHENG Daizhan,FU Shihua.A survey on game theoretical control.Control Theory&Applications,2018,35(5):588-592.(程代展,付世华.博弈控制论简述.控制理论与应用,2018,35(5):588-592.)
[27]REINGANUM J F.On the diffusion of new technology:a game theoretic approach.Review of Economic Studies,1981,48(3):395-405.
[28]PERES R,MULLER E,VIJAY M.Innovation diffusion and new product growth models:a critical review and research directions.International Journal of Research in Marketing,2010,27(2):91-106.
[29]VERDOLINI E,GALEOTTI M.At home and abroad:an empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies.Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,2011,61(2):119-134.
[30]SONG I.Empirical analysis of dynamic consumer choice behavior:micromodeling the new product adoption process with heterogeneous and forward-looking consumers.Chicago:The University of Chicago,2002.
[31]GAO Shiping,WU Bin,DU Jinming,et al.Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation driven by incentives.Control Theory&Applications,2018,35(5):627-636.(高世萍,武斌,杜金铭,等.激励机制下合作行为的演化动力学.控制理论与应用,2018,35(5):627-636.)
[32]LANGER T,WEBER M.Prospect theory,mental accounting,and differences in aggregated and segregated evaluation of lottery portfolios.Management Science,2001,47(5):716-733.
[33]HAN B,SCHMIDT U,ZANK H.Additive utility in prospect theory.Management Science,2009,55(5):863-873.
[34]BOCCABELLA A,NATALINI R,PARESCHI L.On a continuous mixed strategies model for evolutionary game theory.Kinetic&Related Models,2017,4(1):187-213.
[35]LUO Ruiling,FAN Tijun,XIA Haiyang.The game analysis of carbon reduction technology investment on supply chain under carbon cap-and trade rules.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2014,22(11):44-53.(骆瑞玲,范体军,夏海洋.碳排放交易政策下供应链碳减排技术投资的博弈分析.中国管理科学,2014,22(11):44-53.)
[36]WANG Guohong,LIU Junwen,XING Rui.Research on the evolution game model of synergetic innovation behavior of SMEs on perspective of co-opetition theory.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,(s1):662-666.(王国红,刘隽文,邢蕊.竞合视角下中小企业协同创新行为的演化博弈模型研究.中国管理科学,2015,(s1):662-666.)
[37]PRELEC D.The probability weighting function.Econometrica,1998,66(3):497-527.
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