基于水文相似性的预报误差修正
|
摘要
如何进一步提高水文预报精度,降低预报误差,更好的服务于防洪抢险、水资源调度是水文学重要研究方向。基于水文预报误差主要影响因素在相似流域具有相似性,致预报误差具有相似性的特性,以相似流域各预报站预见期不同为切入点,优选误差修正因子,基于二次正交回归设计,构建了预报误差模拟模型以修正预报结果,提高精度。经怒江道街坝水文站模拟预报检验,修正后模拟确定性系数由0.933提高至0.998,洪峰流量平均绝对误差由693m3/s降低至116m3/s,洪峰流量平均相对误差由16%降低至3%,洪峰出现时间预报误差由平均5.4h降低至0.9h,方案精度由乙级提升至甲级。提出的基于水文相似洪水预报修正方法结构简单、计算方便、修正效果明显,是一种高效提高洪水预报精度的方法,适用于相似流域不同预报站洪水过程无明显差异的情形。
How to further improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,reduce forecasting errors,better serve flood control and rescue and water resources dispatching is a hot topic in hydrology.A forecasting error correction model is constructed in this study to improve the forecasting accuracy,based on the similarity theory that the same main influencing factors of hydrological forecasting in similar watersheds result in the similarity of forecasting errors.Different forecasting periods were taken as a starting point in similar watersheds.The error correction factors were based on the quadratic orthogonal regression design.The coefficient of determination increased from 0.933 to 0.998 for the Nujiang Daojieba hydrological station application.The average absolute error of the flood peak flow decreased from 693 m3/s to 116 m3/s,and the average relative error of the flood peak flow decreased from 16%to 3%.The flood peak time of forecasting error reduced from an average of 5.4 hours to 0.9 hours,and the accuracy of the scheme was upgraded from Grade B to Grade A.The hydrological similar flood forecasting correction method proposed in this paper has the advantages of simple structure,easy calculation and significant correction effects,to imrpove the accuracy of flood forecasting.It is also applicable to the case where the water area ratios of different forecasting sections are not much different in similar watersheds,and the flooding process is not much different.
How to further improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,reduce forecasting errors,better serve flood control and rescue and water resources dispatching is a hot topic in hydrology.A forecasting error correction model is constructed in this study to improve the forecasting accuracy,based on the similarity theory that the same main influencing factors of hydrological forecasting in similar watersheds result in the similarity of forecasting errors.Different forecasting periods were taken as a starting point in similar watersheds.The error correction factors were based on the quadratic orthogonal regression design.The coefficient of determination increased from 0.933 to 0.998 for the Nujiang Daojieba hydrological station application.The average absolute error of the flood peak flow decreased from 693 m3/s to 116 m3/s,and the average relative error of the flood peak flow decreased from 16%to 3%.The flood peak time of forecasting error reduced from an average of 5.4 hours to 0.9 hours,and the accuracy of the scheme was upgraded from Grade B to Grade A.The hydrological similar flood forecasting correction method proposed in this paper has the advantages of simple structure,easy calculation and significant correction effects,to imrpove the accuracy of flood forecasting.It is also applicable to the case where the water area ratios of different forecasting sections are not much different in similar watersheds,and the flooding process is not much different.
引文
[1] HOSHIN G,MARTYN P C,JASPER A V,et al.Towards a comprehensive assessment of model structural adequacy[J].Water Resources Research,2012,48(8)301.DOI:10.1029/2011WR011044.
[2] JASPER A V,HOSHIN G,LUIS A B,et al.Effective and efficient algorithm for multi-objective optimization of hydrologic models[J].Water Resources Research,2003,39(8):12-14.DOI:10.1029/2002WR001746.
[3]司伟,余鸿慧,包为民,等.面平均雨量的系统响应曲线修正方法及其在富春江流域洪水预报中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(1):38-45(SI W,YU H H,BAO W M,et al.Area-mean rainfall updating by system response curve method and application to real-time flood forecasting of Fuchunjiang basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(1):38-45.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20160105.
[4]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏,等.基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):533-541.(SI W,BAO W M,QU S M,et al.Real-time flood forecast updating method based on mean areal rainfall error correction[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(2):533-541.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2018.0224.
[5]包为民.水文预报[M].第五版.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.(BAO W M.Hydrological forecasting.Fifth edition.Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese))
[6]赵超,洪华生,包为民,等.实时洪水抗差预报系统研究[J].水文,2008,28(2):27-29(ZHAO C,HONG H S,BAO W M,et al.Application of robust estimation in real time flood forecasting system[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(2):27-29.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2008.02.007.
[7]瞿思敏,包为民.实时洪水预报综合修正方法初探[J].水科学进展,2003,14(2):167-171.(QU S M,BAO W M.Comprehensive correction of real-time flood forecasting[J].Advances in Water Scienc,2003,14(2):167-171.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2003.02.008.
[8]岳延兵,李致家,李振兴.基于集合kalman滤波的河道洪水预报研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(1):26-29.(YUE Y B,LI Z J,LI Z X.Study of river channel flood forecasting by ensemble Kalman filtering[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(1):26-29.(in Chinese))DOI:1000-7709(2011)01-0026-04.
[9]戴会超,何文社,曹叔尤.基于误差修正的BP神经网络模型在河道洪水预报中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2006,24(1):69-71.(DAI H C,HE W S,CAO S Y.Application of BP neural network model based on error correction in river flood forecasting[J].Water Resources and Power,2006,24(1):69-71.(in Chinese))DOI:1000-7709(2006)01-0069-03.
[10]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏.洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):497-503.(SI W,BAO W M,QU S M.Runoff error correction in real-time flood forecasting based on dynamic system response curve[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(4):497-503.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2013.04.001.
[11]包为民,司伟,沈国华,等.基于单位线反演的产流误差修正[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):315-322.(BAO W M,SI W,SHEN G H,et al.Runoff error updating based on unit hydrograph inversion[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(3):315-322.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2012.03.019.
[12]张小琴,刘可新,包为民,等.产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):789-796.(ZHANG X Q,LIU K X,BAO W M,et al.Runoff error proportionality coefficient correction method based on system response[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(6):789-796.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.06.004.
[13]刘金涛,宋慧卿,王爱花.水文相似概念与理论发展探析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):288-296(LIU J T,SONG H Q,WANG A H.Advances in the theories of hydrologic similarity:A discussion[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):288-296.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.02.012.
[14]戚晓明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.水文相似度及其应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):355-360.(QI X M,LU G H,WU Z Y,et al.Hydrology similarity degree and its application[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(3):355-360.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2007.03.017.
[15]姚成,章玉霞,李致家.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(2):108-113.(YAO C,ZHANG Y X,LI Z J.Hydrological simulations and similarities in ungauged basins[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2013,41(2):108-113.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2013.02.003.
[16]邓元倩,李致家,刘甲奇.区划方法在缺资料地区水文模型参数识别的发展与展望[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(11):31-34.(DENG Y Q,LI Z J,LIU J Q.Development and prospect of hydrological model parameter identification for ungauged catchment[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2017(11):31-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2017.11.008.
[17]伊璇,周丰,周璟,等.区划方法在无资料地区水文预报中的应用研究[J].水文,2014,34(4):21-27.(YI X,ZHOU F,ZHOU J,et al.Application of regionalization in hydrological forecasting for ungauged basins[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(4):21-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2014.04.004.
[18]施征,包为民,瞿思敏.基于相似性的无资料地区模型参数确定[J].水文,2015,35(2):33-38.(SHI Z,BAO W M,QU S M.Model parameters determination for ungauged basins based on similarity[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2015,35(2):33-38.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2015.02.007.
[19]荣延昭,李晚枕.田间试验与统计分析[M].成都:四川大学出版社,2001.(RONG Y Z,LI W Z.Field trials and statistical analysis[M].Chendu:Sichuan University Press,2001.(in Chinese))
[20]彭晓霞,张振巍.二次正交旋转组合设计法优化赤芍醇提工艺[J].中药材,2010,33(6):991-994.(PENG X X,ZHANG Z W.Quadratic-orthogonal-rotation-combination design for optimization of ethanol extraction craft from radix paeoniae rubra[J].Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials,2010,33(6):991-994.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13863/j.issn1001-4454.2010.06.006.
[21]王连臻,杜小凤,吴传万,等.应用二次回归正交旋转组合法进行小麦抗低温胁迫复配植物生长调节剂研发[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(9):63-67.(WANG L Z,DU X F,WU C W,et al.The development of plant growth regulators of resistance to low temperature stress in wheat with the method of quadratic regression orthogonal rotary[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(9):63-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2104.
[22]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.(TANG Q Y.DPS Data Processing System[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013.(in Chinese))
[23]王琪,张亭亭,游海林,等.基于多元回归分析的大伙房水库径流中长期预报[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):17-20.(WANG Q,ZHANG T T,YOU H L,et al.Mid-long term runoff forecasting model for dahuofang reservoir based on multiple regression analysis[J].Water Power,2014,40(5):17-20.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2014.05.005.
[24]何振奇,乔光建.基于多项式回归模型的枯季径流预报与分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(5)85-88.(HE Z Q,QIAO G J.Polynomial Regressin Model Based on the Low Flow Forecasting and Analysis[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2010,8(5):85-88.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/SP.J.1201.2010.05085.
[25]葛朝霞,薛梅,宋颖玲.多因子逐步回归周期分析在中长期水文预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3):255-257.(GE Z X,X M,SONG Y L.Application of multi-factor stepwise regression cycle analysis in medium and long-term hydrological forecast[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2009,37(3):255-257.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2009.03.002.
[26]刘冬英,沈燕舟,王政祥.怒江流域水资源特性分析[J].人民长江,2008,39(17):64-66.(LIU D Y,SHEN Y Z,WANG Z X.Analysis of water resources characteristics of the Nujiang River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2008,39(17):64-66.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2008.17.022.
[2] JASPER A V,HOSHIN G,LUIS A B,et al.Effective and efficient algorithm for multi-objective optimization of hydrologic models[J].Water Resources Research,2003,39(8):12-14.DOI:10.1029/2002WR001746.
[3]司伟,余鸿慧,包为民,等.面平均雨量的系统响应曲线修正方法及其在富春江流域洪水预报中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(1):38-45(SI W,YU H H,BAO W M,et al.Area-mean rainfall updating by system response curve method and application to real-time flood forecasting of Fuchunjiang basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(1):38-45.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20160105.
[4]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏,等.基于面平均雨量误差修正的实时洪水预报修正方法[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):533-541.(SI W,BAO W M,QU S M,et al.Real-time flood forecast updating method based on mean areal rainfall error correction[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(2):533-541.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2018.0224.
[5]包为民.水文预报[M].第五版.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2017.(BAO W M.Hydrological forecasting.Fifth edition.Beijing:China Water&Power Press,2017.(in Chinese))
[6]赵超,洪华生,包为民,等.实时洪水抗差预报系统研究[J].水文,2008,28(2):27-29(ZHAO C,HONG H S,BAO W M,et al.Application of robust estimation in real time flood forecasting system[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(2):27-29.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2008.02.007.
[7]瞿思敏,包为民.实时洪水预报综合修正方法初探[J].水科学进展,2003,14(2):167-171.(QU S M,BAO W M.Comprehensive correction of real-time flood forecasting[J].Advances in Water Scienc,2003,14(2):167-171.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2003.02.008.
[8]岳延兵,李致家,李振兴.基于集合kalman滤波的河道洪水预报研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(1):26-29.(YUE Y B,LI Z J,LI Z X.Study of river channel flood forecasting by ensemble Kalman filtering[J].Water Resources and Power,2011,29(1):26-29.(in Chinese))DOI:1000-7709(2011)01-0026-04.
[9]戴会超,何文社,曹叔尤.基于误差修正的BP神经网络模型在河道洪水预报中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2006,24(1):69-71.(DAI H C,HE W S,CAO S Y.Application of BP neural network model based on error correction in river flood forecasting[J].Water Resources and Power,2006,24(1):69-71.(in Chinese))DOI:1000-7709(2006)01-0069-03.
[10]司伟,包为民,瞿思敏.洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):497-503.(SI W,BAO W M,QU S M.Runoff error correction in real-time flood forecasting based on dynamic system response curve[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(4):497-503.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2013.04.001.
[11]包为民,司伟,沈国华,等.基于单位线反演的产流误差修正[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):315-322.(BAO W M,SI W,SHEN G H,et al.Runoff error updating based on unit hydrograph inversion[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(3):315-322.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2012.03.019.
[12]张小琴,刘可新,包为民,等.产流误差比例系数的系统响应修正方法[J].水科学进展,2014,25(6):789-796.(ZHANG X Q,LIU K X,BAO W M,et al.Runoff error proportionality coefficient correction method based on system response[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(6):789-796.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.06.004.
[13]刘金涛,宋慧卿,王爱花.水文相似概念与理论发展探析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):288-296(LIU J T,SONG H Q,WANG A H.Advances in the theories of hydrologic similarity:A discussion[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(2):288-296.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.02.012.
[14]戚晓明,陆桂华,吴志勇,等.水文相似度及其应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):355-360.(QI X M,LU G H,WU Z Y,et al.Hydrology similarity degree and its application[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(3):355-360.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2007.03.017.
[15]姚成,章玉霞,李致家.无资料地区水文模拟及相似性分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(2):108-113.(YAO C,ZHANG Y X,LI Z J.Hydrological simulations and similarities in ungauged basins[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2013,41(2):108-113.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2013.02.003.
[16]邓元倩,李致家,刘甲奇.区划方法在缺资料地区水文模型参数识别的发展与展望[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(11):31-34.(DENG Y Q,LI Z J,LIU J Q.Development and prospect of hydrological model parameter identification for ungauged catchment[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2017(11):31-34.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2017.11.008.
[17]伊璇,周丰,周璟,等.区划方法在无资料地区水文预报中的应用研究[J].水文,2014,34(4):21-27.(YI X,ZHOU F,ZHOU J,et al.Application of regionalization in hydrological forecasting for ungauged basins[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(4):21-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2014.04.004.
[18]施征,包为民,瞿思敏.基于相似性的无资料地区模型参数确定[J].水文,2015,35(2):33-38.(SHI Z,BAO W M,QU S M.Model parameters determination for ungauged basins based on similarity[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2015,35(2):33-38.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2015.02.007.
[19]荣延昭,李晚枕.田间试验与统计分析[M].成都:四川大学出版社,2001.(RONG Y Z,LI W Z.Field trials and statistical analysis[M].Chendu:Sichuan University Press,2001.(in Chinese))
[20]彭晓霞,张振巍.二次正交旋转组合设计法优化赤芍醇提工艺[J].中药材,2010,33(6):991-994.(PENG X X,ZHANG Z W.Quadratic-orthogonal-rotation-combination design for optimization of ethanol extraction craft from radix paeoniae rubra[J].Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials,2010,33(6):991-994.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13863/j.issn1001-4454.2010.06.006.
[21]王连臻,杜小凤,吴传万,等.应用二次回归正交旋转组合法进行小麦抗低温胁迫复配植物生长调节剂研发[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(9):63-67.(WANG L Z,DU X F,WU C W,et al.The development of plant growth regulators of resistance to low temperature stress in wheat with the method of quadratic regression orthogonal rotary[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(9):63-67.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2104.
[22]唐启义.DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.(TANG Q Y.DPS Data Processing System[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013.(in Chinese))
[23]王琪,张亭亭,游海林,等.基于多元回归分析的大伙房水库径流中长期预报[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):17-20.(WANG Q,ZHANG T T,YOU H L,et al.Mid-long term runoff forecasting model for dahuofang reservoir based on multiple regression analysis[J].Water Power,2014,40(5):17-20.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2014.05.005.
[24]何振奇,乔光建.基于多项式回归模型的枯季径流预报与分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(5)85-88.(HE Z Q,QIAO G J.Polynomial Regressin Model Based on the Low Flow Forecasting and Analysis[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2010,8(5):85-88.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/SP.J.1201.2010.05085.
[25]葛朝霞,薛梅,宋颖玲.多因子逐步回归周期分析在中长期水文预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3):255-257.(GE Z X,X M,SONG Y L.Application of multi-factor stepwise regression cycle analysis in medium and long-term hydrological forecast[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2009,37(3):255-257.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2009.03.002.
[26]刘冬英,沈燕舟,王政祥.怒江流域水资源特性分析[J].人民长江,2008,39(17):64-66.(LIU D Y,SHEN Y Z,WANG Z X.Analysis of water resources characteristics of the Nujiang River Basin[J].Yangtze River,2008,39(17):64-66.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2008.17.022.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |