国内外技术预见研究:学术研究与政府实践的区别与联系
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摘要
[目的/意义]从学术研究和政府实践两方面入手,分析技术预见在这两方面研究内容的差异与联系,并预测其未来演化趋势。[方法/过程]以Web of Knowledge数据库中技术预见研究的文献为数据源,分析技术预见学术研究的发展阶段,并采用关键词共现法对起步和快速发展阶段进行重点挖掘;在政府实践方面,通过梳理海内外6个国家的技术预见活动,归纳了各国历次技术预见活动方法选择偏好。[结果/结论]最后,对比学术研究与政府实践的分析结果发现:学术研究方法越来越丰富且更加强调定量研究;实践活动在方法选择上较为稳定,专家依赖特征明显;德尔菲法在学术研究和实践中始终都是研究的重点;政府实践与学术研究联系紧密相辅相成。
[Purpose/significance]From academic research and government practice,the differences and relations of technology foresight in the two aspects are analyzed,and the evolutionary trend of technology foresight is predicted.[Method/process]Taking technology foresight literatures from Web of Knowledge as data sources,this paper analyzes the development of technology foresight research and examines the initial and rapid development phases by keywords co-occurrence method.For government practice,technology foresight practices of six countries at home and abroad are reviewed,and the method selection preferences of the previous technology foresight activities in these countries are summarized.[Result/conclusion]Finally,by comparing the statistical results of academic research and government practice,it is found that academic research involves a wide range of methods and emphasizes quantitative study,while practical activities are more stable on the selection of research methods,and always rely on experts' judgments.Delphi method is both the focus of academic research and practice.Government practice and academic research are complementary and closely linked.
[Purpose/significance]From academic research and government practice,the differences and relations of technology foresight in the two aspects are analyzed,and the evolutionary trend of technology foresight is predicted.[Method/process]Taking technology foresight literatures from Web of Knowledge as data sources,this paper analyzes the development of technology foresight research and examines the initial and rapid development phases by keywords co-occurrence method.For government practice,technology foresight practices of six countries at home and abroad are reviewed,and the method selection preferences of the previous technology foresight activities in these countries are summarized.[Result/conclusion]Finally,by comparing the statistical results of academic research and government practice,it is found that academic research involves a wide range of methods and emphasizes quantitative study,while practical activities are more stable on the selection of research methods,and always rely on experts' judgments.Delphi method is both the focus of academic research and practice.Government practice and academic research are complementary and closely linked.
引文
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[13]周源,刘怀兰,廖岭,薛澜.基于主题模型的技术预见定量方法综述[J].科技管理研究,2017(11):185-196.
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[15]范晓婷,李国秋.日本技术预见发展阶段及其未来趋势分析[J].竞争情报,2016,12(3):37-42.
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[19]CUHLS K.Government foresight activities in germany:the future process[J].The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight,2003.
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[22]DURAND T.Twelve lessons from“key technologies 2005”:the french technology foresight exercise[J].Journal of Forecasting,2003,22(3):161-177.
[23]GEORGHIOU L,HARPER J C,KENNAN M,MILES I,POPPER R.The handbook of technology foresight:concepts and practice[M].Edward Elgar Publishers,2008:154-169.
[2]UNIDOV E.International practice in technology foresight[M].Vienna:UNIDO Publication,2002:9.
[3]SALO A,CUHLS K.Technology foresight-past and future[J].Journal of Forecasting,2010,22(2-3):79-82.
[4]MARTIN B R.Foresight in science and technology[J].Technology Analysis&Strategic Management,1995,7(2):139-168.
[5]HELMERO.Analysis of the future:the delphi method[R].Santa Monica,Calif.:RAND Corporation,1967.
[6]SU H N,LEE P C.Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence:a first look at journal papers in technology foresight[J].Scientometrics,2010,85(1):65-79.
[7]张峰,邝岩.日本第十次国家技术预见的实践和启示[J].情报杂志,2016,35(12):12-16.
[8]FORGE S.The handbook of technology foresight:concepts and practice[J].Foresight,2008,10(5):65-66.
[9]National Institute of Science and Technology Policy of Japan.The 10thscience and technology foresight scenario planning from the viewpoint of globalization[R].NISTEP REPORTNo.164,2015.
[10]李国秋,龙怡.近十年(2004-2013)国际技术预见研究的热点及动向分析[J].知识、学习与管理,2014(3):104-116.
[11]任海英,于丽婷,王菲菲.国内外技术预见研究的热点和趋势分析[J].情报杂志,2016,35(2):81-87,115.
[12]王志玲,管泉,蓝洁.国内技术预见研究的文献计量分析[J].现代情报,2015,35(4):98-107.
[13]周源,刘怀兰,廖岭,薛澜.基于主题模型的技术预见定量方法综述[J].科技管理研究,2017(11):185-196.
[14]LI N,CHEN K H,KOU M T.Technology foresight in China:Academics studies,governmental practices and policy applications[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2017,119:246-255.
[15]范晓婷,李国秋.日本技术预见发展阶段及其未来趋势分析[J].竞争情报,2016,12(3):37-42.
[16]National Institute of Science and Technology Policy of Japan.Comprehensive analysis of science and technology benchmarking and foresight[R].NISTEP REPORTNo.99,2005.
[17]中国未来20年技术预见研究组.中国未来20年技术预见[R].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[18]Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning.The 5thScience and technology foresight(2016-2040)[R].Seoul,2017.
[19]CUHLS K.Government foresight activities in germany:the future process[J].The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight,2003.
[20]Government Office for Science.Technology and innovation futures:UK growth opportunities for the 2020s[R].London,2010.
[21]孟弘,许晔,李振兴.英国面向2030年的技术预见及其对中国的启示[J].中国科技论坛,2013(12):155-160.
[22]DURAND T.Twelve lessons from“key technologies 2005”:the french technology foresight exercise[J].Journal of Forecasting,2003,22(3):161-177.
[23]GEORGHIOU L,HARPER J C,KENNAN M,MILES I,POPPER R.The handbook of technology foresight:concepts and practice[M].Edward Elgar Publishers,2008:154-169.
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