社会群体性事件阶段复杂性差异化的分析方法研究
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摘要
新兴网络技术和移动平台的快速发展不仅给负面信息的传播提供了机会,而且加速了社会群体性事件的复杂性演化。文章根据危机生命周期理论,运用最优组合赋权和云模型理论建立社会群体性突发事件阶段复杂性差异化的分析方法。结果证实该方法可以计算出社会群体性事件复杂性等级和各发展阶段的复杂性差异、可接受的评价边界以及复杂性等级的模糊度,可以明确事件各阶段演化复杂性的差异和事件整体复杂性,给应急方案的动态调整和启动机制的建立提供帮助。
The rapid development of network technology and mobile platform provide the opportunities for the spread of negative information; accelerate the social complexity evolution of the mass incidents. Based on the theory of crisis life cycle,this study uses the optimal combination empowerment and cloud model theory to establish the analysis method of the complexity differentiation of social mass incidents. The results show that this method can calculate the complexity level of social mass incidents and the complexity difference of the development stage,acceptable evaluation boundary and fuzzy degree of complexity level. This method can be used to clarify the differences of the evolution complexity and the overall complexity of the events,and to provide help for the dynamic adjustment of the emergency plan and the establishment of the mechanism.
The rapid development of network technology and mobile platform provide the opportunities for the spread of negative information; accelerate the social complexity evolution of the mass incidents. Based on the theory of crisis life cycle,this study uses the optimal combination empowerment and cloud model theory to establish the analysis method of the complexity differentiation of social mass incidents. The results show that this method can calculate the complexity level of social mass incidents and the complexity difference of the development stage,acceptable evaluation boundary and fuzzy degree of complexity level. This method can be used to clarify the differences of the evolution complexity and the overall complexity of the events,and to provide help for the dynamic adjustment of the emergency plan and the establishment of the mechanism.
引文
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[2]郑保卫,叶俊.论复杂性突发事件的舆论引导策略---基于天津爆炸事故舆论引导的反思[J].新闻爱好者,2016(2).
[3]王永刚,王灿敏,等.基于系统动力学的航空公司不安全事件指引复杂性研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013(8).
[4]周理乾.论复杂性科学视域中的高校突发公共事件[J].复杂系统与复杂科学,2012(2).
[5]Augustine NR.Managing the Crisis You Tried to Prevent[J].Harvard Business Review,1995(73).
[6]李湖生.应急管理阶段理论新模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010(5).
[7]顾明毅,周忍伟.网络舆情及社会性网络信息传播模式[J].新闻与传播研究,2009(5).
[8]Zhang C,Liu XF.Effects of Loading Rate on Gas Seepage and Temperature in Coal and Its Potential for Coal-Gas Disaster Early-Warning[J].ENERGIES,2017(9).
[9]李勇建,等.基于多案例研究的群体性突发事件结构化描述与控制决策[J].系统管理学报,2016(6).
[10]杨志,祁凯.基于“情景-应对”的突发网络舆论事件演化博弈分析[J].情报科学,2018(2).
[11]彭小兵,邹晓韵.邻避效应向环境群体性事件演化的网络舆情传播机制---基于宁波镇海反PX事件的研究[J].情报杂志,2017(4).
[12]Zheng YJ,Wang Y et al.Integrated Civilian-military Pre-positioning of Emergency Supplies:A Multiobjective Optimization Approach[J].APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING,2017(58).
[13]Heath Robert L,Lee Jassub et al.Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness:Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model[J].Risk Analysis:an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis,2018(2).
[14]Fanelli Simone,Ferretti Marco et al.The Impact of Regional Policies on Emergency Department Management and Performance:the Case of the Regional Government of Sicily[J].The International Journal of Health Planning and Management,2017(1).
[15]Bypaneni SPK,Tran DQ.Empirical Identification and Evaluation of Risk in Highway Project Delivery Methods[J].Journal of Management in Engineering,2018(3).
[16],The Study on the Improvement of the Law and System about Emergency-Safety Management[J].Korean Review of Crisis and Emergency Management,2010(2).
[17]吴贤国,翟海周,张立茂,等.基于云模型的改进R=P×C风险评价法[J].土木工程与管理学报,2014(1).
[18]尹航,李远富,赵冬梅.基于云模型的PPP项目风险分担方案决策方法[J].科技管理研究,2016(15).
[19]Ibrahim AD,Price ADF,Dainty ARJ.The Analysis and Allocation of Risks in Public Private Partnerships in Infrastructure Projects in Nigeria[J].Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction,2006(3).
[20]Ameyaw EE,Chan APC..Evaluation and Ranking of Risk Factors in Public-Private Partnership Water Supply Projects in Developing Countries Using Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2015(12).
[21]刘常昱,等.基于云X信息的逆向云新算法[J].系统仿真学报,2004(11).
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