太湖流域工业园区水风险评估体系的建立与实例研究
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摘要
太湖流域是我国经济最发达地区之一,但其流域水环境污染较为严重,而正确评价工业园区水风险可以有效帮助园区实现水风险管理.在WWF (世界自然基金会)和DEG (德国投资与开发有限公司)开发的全球水风险评估体系的基础上,根据太湖流域的水环境状况、工业园区的管理模式及相关标准法规,确定了太湖流域工业园区水风险评估指标,包括9项物理风险指标、6项监管风险指标和9项声誉风险指标.指标权重的确定采用层次分析法,指标的分级采用5级5分制,风险综合评分值计算采用综合指数加权求和法,建立了太湖流域工业园区水风险评估体系.结果显示,准则层物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险的权重分别为0. 443 4、0. 169 2和0. 387 4,其中,"万元工业增加值新鲜水耗"(权重为0. 214 0)、"工业园区废水排放达标率"(权重为0. 270 7)和"媒体对工业园区企业的负面报道"(权重为0. 251 6)指标分别在物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险中所占权重最大.在太湖流域选取了一个纺织工业园区进行实例分析,评估结果表明,2015年该工业园区物理风险值为3. 622 5,监管风险值为2. 980 8,声誉风险值为3. 203 4,综合水风险值3. 351 5,风险等级为Ⅳ级,属高风险,原因与该园区万元工业增加值新鲜水耗高、附近河流水质较差、公众满意度低和废水排放达标率相对不高有关.
The Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most developed regions in China,the basin water environment was seriously polluted. Water risk assessment in the industrial parks can effectively help the parks to achieve water risk management. Based on the global water risk assessment system developed by the World Wide Fund for Nature( WWF) and the German Investment and Development Corporation( DEG),according to the investigation of water environment situation in the Taihu Lake Basin,management mode of industrial parks,and relevant standards and statutes,the industrial park water risk assessment indexes in the Taihu Lake Basin were determined,which included 9 indexes of physical risk,6 indexes of regulatory risk and 9 indexes of reputational risk. The analytic hierarchy process( AHP)was employed to calculate the weights of the indexes,the indexes were graded by the five-grade and five-score scales,the comprehensive assessment values were calculated by the weighted comprehensive index summation process,and industrial park water risk assessment system in the Taihu Lake Basin was established. The results showed that the weight of the criterion layer physical risk,regulatory risk and reputational risk was 0. 443,4,0. 169,2 and 0. 387,4 respectively. The indexes ‘fresh water consumption of 10,000 RMB industrial added value'( 0. 214,0),‘standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge in industrial park'( 0. 270,7) and ‘media reports for theindustrial parks and enterprises'( 0. 251,6) accounted for the largest weight in the three risks,respectively. A case study was conducted at a textile industrial park in the Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed that the assessment value of physical risk was 3. 622,5,the reputational risk was 2. 980,8,the regulatory risk was 3. 203,4 and the comprehensive water assessment value was 3. 351,5,the risk grade conformed to grade Ⅳ or a high risk. The main reasons for the poor water quality were the high fresh water consumption of 10,000 Chinese Yuan industrial added-value,the poor water quality of the rivers near the industrial park,the low public satisfaction and the relatively low standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge.
The Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most developed regions in China,the basin water environment was seriously polluted. Water risk assessment in the industrial parks can effectively help the parks to achieve water risk management. Based on the global water risk assessment system developed by the World Wide Fund for Nature( WWF) and the German Investment and Development Corporation( DEG),according to the investigation of water environment situation in the Taihu Lake Basin,management mode of industrial parks,and relevant standards and statutes,the industrial park water risk assessment indexes in the Taihu Lake Basin were determined,which included 9 indexes of physical risk,6 indexes of regulatory risk and 9 indexes of reputational risk. The analytic hierarchy process( AHP)was employed to calculate the weights of the indexes,the indexes were graded by the five-grade and five-score scales,the comprehensive assessment values were calculated by the weighted comprehensive index summation process,and industrial park water risk assessment system in the Taihu Lake Basin was established. The results showed that the weight of the criterion layer physical risk,regulatory risk and reputational risk was 0. 443,4,0. 169,2 and 0. 387,4 respectively. The indexes ‘fresh water consumption of 10,000 RMB industrial added value'( 0. 214,0),‘standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge in industrial park'( 0. 270,7) and ‘media reports for theindustrial parks and enterprises'( 0. 251,6) accounted for the largest weight in the three risks,respectively. A case study was conducted at a textile industrial park in the Taihu Lake Basin. The results showed that the assessment value of physical risk was 3. 622,5,the reputational risk was 2. 980,8,the regulatory risk was 3. 203,4 and the comprehensive water assessment value was 3. 351,5,the risk grade conformed to grade Ⅳ or a high risk. The main reasons for the poor water quality were the high fresh water consumption of 10,000 Chinese Yuan industrial added-value,the poor water quality of the rivers near the industrial park,the low public satisfaction and the relatively low standard-reaching rate of wastewater discharge.
引文
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[22]晁罡,石杜丽,申传泉,等.新媒体时代企业社会责任对声誉修复的影响研究[J].管理学报,2015,12(11):1678-1686.CHAO Gang,SHI Duli,SHEN Chuangquan,et al. The influence of corporate social responsibility performance on reputation restoring process in new media era:a multi-case study based on corporate crisis events[J]. Chinese Jouranl of Management,2015,12(11):1678-1686.
[23] AKSAK E O,FERGUSON M A,DUMAN S A. Corporate social responsibility and CSR fit as predictors of corporate reputation:a global perspective[J].Public Relations Review,2016,42(1):79-81.
[24] LU Yan,XU Hongwen,WANG Yuexiang,et al.Evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity of city in Huaihe River Basin based on the AHP method:a case in Huai'an City[J]. Water Resources and Industry,2017,18:71-77.
[25] RAHMATI O,SAMANI A N,MAHDAVI M,et al. Groundwater potential mapping at Kurdistan Region of Iran using analytic hierarchy process and GIS[J]. Arabian Journal of Geosciences,2015,8(9):7059-7071.
[26] SUN H,WANG S,HAO X.An improved analytic hierarchy process method for the evaluation of agricultural water management in irrigation districts of North China[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2017,179:324-337.
[27] WU Qiang,FAN Shukai,ZHOU Wangfang,et al.Application of the analytic hierarchy process to assessment of water inrush:a case study for the No. 17 coal seam in the Sanhejian coal mine,China[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2013,32(3):229-238.
[28] SHABBIR R,AHMAD S S.Water resource vulnerability assessment in Rawalpindi and Islamabad,Pakistan using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)[J]. Journal of King Saud University-Science,2015,28(4):293-299.
[29]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识2012,42(7):93-100.DENG Xue,LI Jiaming,ZENG Haojian,et al. Research on computation methods of AHP weight vector and its application[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100.
[2] NORMAN E S,DUNN G,BAKKER K,et al. Water security assessment:integrating governance and freshwater indicators[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(2):535-551.
[3] NIKOLAOU I E,NIKOLAIDOU M K,TSAGARAKIS K P. The response of small and medium-sized enterprises to potential water risks:an eco-cluster approach[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,11(2):4550-4557.
[4]魏娜,仇亚琴,甘泓.WWF水风险评估工具在中国的应用研究以长江流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(3):502-512.WEI Na,QIU Yaqin,GAN Hong,et al. Application of WWF water risk assessment tools in China:a case study in the Yangtze River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(3):502-512.
[5]王浩.中国水风险评估报告[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2013:41-42.
[6]生态环境部.生态环境部2018年4月例行新闻发布会实录[EB/OL].北京:生态环境部,2018[2018-04-19]. http://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/sthjbgw/qt/201804/t20180419_434980.htm.
[7] BURRITT R L,CHRIST K L,OMORI A.Drivers of corporate waterrelated disclosure:evidence from Japan[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,129:65-74.
[8] LIU Mei,WEI Jiahua,WANG Guangqian,et al. Water resources stress assessment and risk early warning:a case of Hebei Province China[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,73:358-368.
[9] ZHAO Haixia,DUAN Xuejun,STEWART B,et al. Spatial correlations between urbanization and river water pollution in the heavily polluted area of Taihu Lake Basin,China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(4):735-752.
[10] WU Zhaoshi,WANG Xiaolong,CHEN Yuwei,et al.Assessing river water quality using water quality index in Lake Taihu Basin,China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,612:914-922.
[11] LIU Jiajia,WANG Peifang,WANG Chao,et al. Heavy metal pollution status and ecological risks of sediments under the influence of water transfers in Taihu Lake,China[J].Environmental Science&Pollution Research,2017,24:2653-2666.
[12] TESFAMARIAM S,SADIQ R. Risk-based environmental decisionmaking using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(F-AHP)[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2006,21(1):35-50.
[13] QIU Mei,SHI Longqing,TENG Chao,et al. Assessment of water inrush risk using the fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy process and grey relational analysis in the Liangzhuang coal mine,China[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2017,36(1):39-50.
[14] XI Xi,POH K L. A novel integrated decision support tool for sustainable water resources management in Singapore:synergies between system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(4):1329-1350.
[15]环境保护部.HJ 274—2015国家生态工业园区示范标准[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2015.
[16]中华人民共和国国务院.太湖流域管理条例[EB/OL].北京:中华人民共和国国务院,2011[2011-09-15]. http://www. gov. cn/zwgk/2011-09/15/content_1948417.htm.
[17]江苏省第十一届人民代表大会常务委员会.江苏省太湖水污染防治条例[EB/OL].南京:江苏省第十一届人民代表大会常务委员会,2012[2012-01-19]. http://www. jiangsu. gov. cn/jsgov/tj/zfcxjst/201211/t20121123_256458.html.
[18] PENG Jianfeng,SONG Yonghui,PENG Yuan,et al. An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2013,25(7):1441-1449.
[19]田金平,刘巍,赖玢洁,等.中国生态工业园区发展的经济和环境绩效研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):119-122.TIAN Jinping,LIU Wei,LAI Binjie,et al.Study on the performance of eco-industrial park development in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(11):119-122.
[20]李艳萍,乔琦,柴发合,等.基于层次分析法的工业园区环境风险评价指标权重分析[J].环境科学研究,2014,27(3):334-340.LI Yanping,QIAO Qi,CHAI Fahe,et al. Study on environmental risk assessment index weight of industrial park based on the analytic hierarchy process[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2014,27(3):334-340.
[21]姜继平,王鹏,刘洁,等.突发水污染预警应急响应研究与实践的方法学辨析[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(9):3621-3628.JIANG Jiping,WANG Peng,LIU Jie,et al. Methodological analysis on the research and practices on the early warning and emergency response to river chemical spill incidents[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(9):3621-3628.
[22]晁罡,石杜丽,申传泉,等.新媒体时代企业社会责任对声誉修复的影响研究[J].管理学报,2015,12(11):1678-1686.CHAO Gang,SHI Duli,SHEN Chuangquan,et al. The influence of corporate social responsibility performance on reputation restoring process in new media era:a multi-case study based on corporate crisis events[J]. Chinese Jouranl of Management,2015,12(11):1678-1686.
[23] AKSAK E O,FERGUSON M A,DUMAN S A. Corporate social responsibility and CSR fit as predictors of corporate reputation:a global perspective[J].Public Relations Review,2016,42(1):79-81.
[24] LU Yan,XU Hongwen,WANG Yuexiang,et al.Evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity of city in Huaihe River Basin based on the AHP method:a case in Huai'an City[J]. Water Resources and Industry,2017,18:71-77.
[25] RAHMATI O,SAMANI A N,MAHDAVI M,et al. Groundwater potential mapping at Kurdistan Region of Iran using analytic hierarchy process and GIS[J]. Arabian Journal of Geosciences,2015,8(9):7059-7071.
[26] SUN H,WANG S,HAO X.An improved analytic hierarchy process method for the evaluation of agricultural water management in irrigation districts of North China[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2017,179:324-337.
[27] WU Qiang,FAN Shukai,ZHOU Wangfang,et al.Application of the analytic hierarchy process to assessment of water inrush:a case study for the No. 17 coal seam in the Sanhejian coal mine,China[J].Mine Water&the Environment,2013,32(3):229-238.
[28] SHABBIR R,AHMAD S S.Water resource vulnerability assessment in Rawalpindi and Islamabad,Pakistan using analytic hierarchy process(AHP)[J]. Journal of King Saud University-Science,2015,28(4):293-299.
[29]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识2012,42(7):93-100.DENG Xue,LI Jiaming,ZENG Haojian,et al. Research on computation methods of AHP weight vector and its application[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100.
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