省域生态环境质量动态评价及差异研究
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摘要
以2010～2015年30个省域为研究对象,采用"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"框架构建评价指标体系,运用逐层纵横向拉开档次法确定指标权重,运用"时间度"和"熵值"法确定时间权重,构建TOWA-GA混合算子生态环境质量动态评价模型.结果表明:6a来,30个省域生态环境质量总体均值为0.837,整体呈好转趋势,但省域间差异明显.通过Theil指数分析发现,省域间总体差异下降了15.91%,人口密度和人口自然增长率是省域间差异的主要影响因素.
The evaluation target was 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. The eco-environmental quality index system was establishedby the "driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response" framework. The index weight was defined by vertical and horizontal layer bylayer scatter degree method, and the time weight was calculated by concept of "time-degree" and "entropy value" method. Thedynamic evaluation model of eco-environmental quality was constructed by TOWA-GA hybrid operator. The results indicated that:The total average of the ecological quality of the 30 provinces was 0.837 and the overall trend was positive in the past six years, butthere were significant differences between provinces. Analysis by Theil index showed that: The overall difference between provinceshad dropped by 15.9%, and the population density and natural population growth rate were the main factors of differences betweenprovinces.
The evaluation target was 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. The eco-environmental quality index system was establishedby the "driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response" framework. The index weight was defined by vertical and horizontal layer bylayer scatter degree method, and the time weight was calculated by concept of "time-degree" and "entropy value" method. Thedynamic evaluation model of eco-environmental quality was constructed by TOWA-GA hybrid operator. The results indicated that:The total average of the ecological quality of the 30 provinces was 0.837 and the overall trend was positive in the past six years, butthere were significant differences between provinces. Analysis by Theil index showed that: The overall difference between provinceshad dropped by 15.9%, and the population density and natural population growth rate were the main factors of differences betweenprovinces.
引文
[1]宓泽锋,曾刚,周灿,等.长三角城市群生态文明建设问题及潜力研究--基于5大城市群的比较[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(3):463-472.Bi Z F,Zeng G,Zhou C,et al.Problems and potentiality of ecological civilization construction in Yangtze river Delta urban agglomerations:Based on the comparison of five major urban agglomerations[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2018,27(3):463-472.
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[3]Meyarnaimi H,Vaezzadeh S.Sustainable development based energy policy making frameworks,a critical review[J].Energy Policy,2012,43(4):351-361.
[4]Malekmohammadi B,Jahanishakib F.Vulnerability assessment of wetland landscape ecosystem services using driver-pressure-stateimpact-response(DPSIR)model[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,82:293-303.
[5]Mclaren S,Chanjief C.Towards a comprehensive absolute sustainability assessment method for effective Earth system governance:Defining key environmental indicators using an enhanced-DPSIR framework[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,90:577-583.
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[7]王瑛,常泉英.基于二次赋权的TOPSIS法的城市环境质量动态评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):784-788.Wang Y,Chang Q Y.On the dynamic evaluation of the environmental qualities by using the TOPSIS method with double weights[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(2):784-788.
[8]方磊,杨正东,王刚,等.基于生态足迹法的煤炭型城市可持续发展研究--以河南义马市为例[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(5):358-361.Fang L,Yang Z D,Wang G,et al.Probe into the sustainable development prospect of the coal-mining dominant city by taking Yima,Henan as a sample[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(5):358-361.
[9]沈思祎,钮尔轩,孟斌.基于灰色关联度的辽宁近海海域生态环境承载力评价[J].大连海事大学学报,2017,43(3):112-118.Shen S Y,Niu E X,Meng B.Evaluation of ecological environment carrying capacity in coastal waters of Liaoning based on grey relation[J],Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2017,43(3):112-118.
[10]孙湛,马海涛.基于BP神经网络的京津冀城市群可持续发展综合评价[J].生态学报,2018,38(12):4434-4444.Sun Z,Ma H T.Assessment of the sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on a back propagation neural network.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(12):4434-4444.
[11]杨万平,赵金凯.中国人居生态环境质量的时空差异及影响因素研究[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(2):58-67.YANG W P,ZHAO J K.A Study on spatial-temporal differences and influential factors of the quality of human settlements ecology environment in China[J].East China Economic Management,2018,32(2):58-67.
[12]吕雄鹰.我国生态环境质量的变化与地区差异分析[J].统计与决策,2015,(1):130-133.LüX Y.Analysis of ecological environment quality and regional disparity in China[J].Statistics&Decision,2015,(1):130-133.
[13]袁晓玲,李政大.中国生态环境动态变化、区域差异和影响机制[J].经济科学,2013,35(6):59-76.Yuan X L,Li Z D.The dynamic changes,regional differences and influence mechanisms of ecological environment in China[J].Economic Science,2013,35(6):59-76.
[14]郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.Zheng J,Yu H,Huang S W.Evaluation and obstacle factors study on eco-environmental carrying capacity in Fujian Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[15]张凤太,王腊春,苏维词.基于物元分析-DPSIR概念模型的重庆土地生态安全评价[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(10):3126-3134.Zhang F T,Wang L C,Su W C.Evaluation of land ecological security in Chongqing based on the matter-element analysis-DPSIR model[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(10):3126-3134.
[16]黄志烨,李桂君,李玉龙,等.基于DPSIR模型的北京市可持续发展评价[J].城市发展研究,2016,23(9):20-24.Huang Z Y,Li G J,Li Y L,Evaluation and analysis of sustainable development in Beijing based on DPSIR model[J].Urban Development Studies,2016,23(9):20-24.
[17]唐晓城.基于DPSIR模型的青岛市生态环境安全评价研究[J].生态经济(学术版),2013,(2):413-416.TANG X C.Ecological environment safety evaluation research in Qingdao based on DPSIR model[J].Ecological Economy,2013,(2):413-416.
[18]董军,国方媛.多层次系统的动态评价研究[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(5):176-184.Dong J,Guo F Y.Dynamic evaluation on multi-level system[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2011,20(5):176-184.
[19]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:138-141.Guo Y J.Comprehensive Evaluation Theory,Method and Application[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007:138-141.
[20]郭亚军,姚远,易平涛.一种动态综合评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27(10):154-158.Guo Y J,Yao Y,Yi P T.A method and application of dynamic comprehensive evaluation[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2007,27(10):154-158.
[21]郭亚军,马凤妹,董庆兴.无量纲化方法对拉开档次法的影响分析[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(5):19-28.Guo Y J,Ma F M,Dong Q X.Analysis of Influence of dimensionless methods on deviation maximization method[J].Journal of management Science in China,2011,14(5):19-28.
[22]易平涛,张丹宁,郭亚军,等.动态综合评价中的无量纲化方法[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2009,30(6):889-892.Yi P T,Zhang D N,Guo Y J,et al.Study on dimensionless method in dynamic comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science),2009,30(6):889-892.
[23]Theil H.Economics and Information Theory[M].Success in Economics.1967:127-131.
[24]罗文斌,吴次芳,冯科.城市土地经济密度的时空差异及其影响机理--基于湖南省城市面板数据的实证分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(6):68-74.Luo W B,Wu C F,Feng K.Temporal-spatial features and influence mechanism of urban land economic density:An empirical study based on city panel data in Hunan province[J].Urban Development Studies,2010,17(6):68-74.
[25]张强.江苏城镇化区域差异的测量和影响因素分析--基于泰尔指数的分解[J].调研世界,2016,(9):38-41.Zhang Q.Measurement of regional differences and analysis of influencing factors in urbanization in Jiangsu based on the decomposition of Taylor index[J].The World of Survey and Research,2016,(9):38-41.
[26]许海平.我国农村人口老龄化差异测度、分解及影响因素分析--基于2001-2013年面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2016,(8):49-57.Xu H P.An analysis of the aging difference,decomposition and influencing factors of rural population in China based on the panel data from 2001 to 2013[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016,(8):49-57.
[27]苗向荣,于洋,刘轶芳.我国能耗成效的影响因素分解研究[J].自然辩证法研究,2017,33(5):51-56+73.Miao X R,Yu Y,Liu Y F.Analysis on energy efficiency and influencing factors in China[J].Studies in Dialectics of Nature,2017,33(5):51-56,73.
[2]刘海龙,谢亚林,贾文毓,等.山西省生态安全综合评价及时空演化[J].经济地理,2018,38(5):161-169.Liu H L,Xie Y L,Jia W Y,et al.Ecological security assessment and spatial-temporal evolution of Shanxi province[J].Economic Geography,2018,38(5):161-169.
[3]Meyarnaimi H,Vaezzadeh S.Sustainable development based energy policy making frameworks,a critical review[J].Energy Policy,2012,43(4):351-361.
[4]Malekmohammadi B,Jahanishakib F.Vulnerability assessment of wetland landscape ecosystem services using driver-pressure-stateimpact-response(DPSIR)model[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,82:293-303.
[5]Mclaren S,Chanjief C.Towards a comprehensive absolute sustainability assessment method for effective Earth system governance:Defining key environmental indicators using an enhanced-DPSIR framework[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,90:577-583.
[6]汪嘉杨,翟庆伟,郭倩,等.太湖流域水环境承载力评价研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(5):1979-1987.Wang J Y,Zhai Q W,Guo Q.Study on water environmental carrying capacity evaluation in Taihu lake Basin[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(5):1979-1987.
[7]王瑛,常泉英.基于二次赋权的TOPSIS法的城市环境质量动态评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):784-788.Wang Y,Chang Q Y.On the dynamic evaluation of the environmental qualities by using the TOPSIS method with double weights[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(2):784-788.
[8]方磊,杨正东,王刚,等.基于生态足迹法的煤炭型城市可持续发展研究--以河南义马市为例[J].安全与环境学报,2015,15(5):358-361.Fang L,Yang Z D,Wang G,et al.Probe into the sustainable development prospect of the coal-mining dominant city by taking Yima,Henan as a sample[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2015,15(5):358-361.
[9]沈思祎,钮尔轩,孟斌.基于灰色关联度的辽宁近海海域生态环境承载力评价[J].大连海事大学学报,2017,43(3):112-118.Shen S Y,Niu E X,Meng B.Evaluation of ecological environment carrying capacity in coastal waters of Liaoning based on grey relation[J],Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2017,43(3):112-118.
[10]孙湛,马海涛.基于BP神经网络的京津冀城市群可持续发展综合评价[J].生态学报,2018,38(12):4434-4444.Sun Z,Ma H T.Assessment of the sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on a back propagation neural network.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(12):4434-4444.
[11]杨万平,赵金凯.中国人居生态环境质量的时空差异及影响因素研究[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(2):58-67.YANG W P,ZHAO J K.A Study on spatial-temporal differences and influential factors of the quality of human settlements ecology environment in China[J].East China Economic Management,2018,32(2):58-67.
[12]吕雄鹰.我国生态环境质量的变化与地区差异分析[J].统计与决策,2015,(1):130-133.LüX Y.Analysis of ecological environment quality and regional disparity in China[J].Statistics&Decision,2015,(1):130-133.
[13]袁晓玲,李政大.中国生态环境动态变化、区域差异和影响机制[J].经济科学,2013,35(6):59-76.Yuan X L,Li Z D.The dynamic changes,regional differences and influence mechanisms of ecological environment in China[J].Economic Science,2013,35(6):59-76.
[14]郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.Zheng J,Yu H,Huang S W.Evaluation and obstacle factors study on eco-environmental carrying capacity in Fujian Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[15]张凤太,王腊春,苏维词.基于物元分析-DPSIR概念模型的重庆土地生态安全评价[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(10):3126-3134.Zhang F T,Wang L C,Su W C.Evaluation of land ecological security in Chongqing based on the matter-element analysis-DPSIR model[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(10):3126-3134.
[16]黄志烨,李桂君,李玉龙,等.基于DPSIR模型的北京市可持续发展评价[J].城市发展研究,2016,23(9):20-24.Huang Z Y,Li G J,Li Y L,Evaluation and analysis of sustainable development in Beijing based on DPSIR model[J].Urban Development Studies,2016,23(9):20-24.
[17]唐晓城.基于DPSIR模型的青岛市生态环境安全评价研究[J].生态经济(学术版),2013,(2):413-416.TANG X C.Ecological environment safety evaluation research in Qingdao based on DPSIR model[J].Ecological Economy,2013,(2):413-416.
[18]董军,国方媛.多层次系统的动态评价研究[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(5):176-184.Dong J,Guo F Y.Dynamic evaluation on multi-level system[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2011,20(5):176-184.
[19]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:138-141.Guo Y J.Comprehensive Evaluation Theory,Method and Application[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007:138-141.
[20]郭亚军,姚远,易平涛.一种动态综合评价方法及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007,27(10):154-158.Guo Y J,Yao Y,Yi P T.A method and application of dynamic comprehensive evaluation[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2007,27(10):154-158.
[21]郭亚军,马凤妹,董庆兴.无量纲化方法对拉开档次法的影响分析[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(5):19-28.Guo Y J,Ma F M,Dong Q X.Analysis of Influence of dimensionless methods on deviation maximization method[J].Journal of management Science in China,2011,14(5):19-28.
[22]易平涛,张丹宁,郭亚军,等.动态综合评价中的无量纲化方法[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2009,30(6):889-892.Yi P T,Zhang D N,Guo Y J,et al.Study on dimensionless method in dynamic comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science),2009,30(6):889-892.
[23]Theil H.Economics and Information Theory[M].Success in Economics.1967:127-131.
[24]罗文斌,吴次芳,冯科.城市土地经济密度的时空差异及其影响机理--基于湖南省城市面板数据的实证分析[J].城市发展研究,2010,17(6):68-74.Luo W B,Wu C F,Feng K.Temporal-spatial features and influence mechanism of urban land economic density:An empirical study based on city panel data in Hunan province[J].Urban Development Studies,2010,17(6):68-74.
[25]张强.江苏城镇化区域差异的测量和影响因素分析--基于泰尔指数的分解[J].调研世界,2016,(9):38-41.Zhang Q.Measurement of regional differences and analysis of influencing factors in urbanization in Jiangsu based on the decomposition of Taylor index[J].The World of Survey and Research,2016,(9):38-41.
[26]许海平.我国农村人口老龄化差异测度、分解及影响因素分析--基于2001-2013年面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2016,(8):49-57.Xu H P.An analysis of the aging difference,decomposition and influencing factors of rural population in China based on the panel data from 2001 to 2013[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2016,(8):49-57.
[27]苗向荣,于洋,刘轶芳.我国能耗成效的影响因素分解研究[J].自然辩证法研究,2017,33(5):51-56+73.Miao X R,Yu Y,Liu Y F.Analysis on energy efficiency and influencing factors in China[J].Studies in Dialectics of Nature,2017,33(5):51-56,73.
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