1990～2015年长江流域县域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素分析
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摘要
长江流域粮食生产与经济发展在全国均占据重要地位,研究近25年长江流域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素,可为我国粮食安全及流域可持续发展提供科学依据。基于1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年长江流域县域粮食产量、户籍人口数据、农业化肥使用量和粮食播种面积(740个区县),运用粮食变化指数、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、重心转移模型和空间误差模型(SEM)研究其时空格局演变特征及影响因素。研究结果表明:(1) 1990～2015年长江流域粮食产量总体呈增长趋势,东西差异显著,年均增长率为0. 5%,上中下游依次为0. 6%、0. 8%和-0. 7%;上游为劣势区,中游为优势增长区,下游为减弱区。(2)粮食产量冷点聚类一直分布在上游地区,聚类格局在2000年左右由西南边界的"L"型转变为西北倒"L"型;下游江淮地区与太湖平原的热点集聚在2000年后消失,且长期处于减产状态;人均粮食占有量与粮食产量时空格局演变呈较高的空间相似性,2000年为流域粮食生产与粮食安全格局发生变化的转折点。(3) 1990～2015年长江流域一般余粮县和重要余粮县重心呈现出"南下西移"态势,缺粮县和供需紧平衡县重心发生了"从南向北、从西向东"迁移变化。(4)粮食播种面积和农业化肥施用量对粮食生产均具显著性正向效益。
Grain production in the Yangtze River Basin plays an important role in China. Rapid growth in population and economic development in the Yangtze River Basin over the past 30 years has occurred at the cost of encroaching croplands,resulting into the changes in grain production and food security. This paper presented a study on spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of grain production and food security at county level in the Yangtze River Basin in the recent 25 years,based on the statistics of grain production,household registration population,agricultural fertilizer use and grain crops sown areas in 1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015.The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of grain production and food security were analyzed and identified by using grain change index,exploratory spatial data analysis( ESDA),gravity centers transfer model and spatial error model( SEM). The results showed:( 1) Average annual changing rate of grain production was 0. 5%,respectively for 0. 6% of the upstream,0. 8% of the middle and-0. 7% of the lower reaches. There was a significant spatial heterogeneity in grain production. The upstream area was inferior area and the middle area was dominant growth area,Lower reaches was the weakening area.( 2) The cold point clustering of grain yield distributed in the upstream area. The year of 2000 was the turning point for the pattern change in grain production and food security. The cold points clustering pattern of grain production changed from "L"type in southwest boundary to inverted "L"type in northwest boundary after 2000 in the upstream of the basin. The hot spots clustering in the JiangHuai area and the TaiHu Lake Plain disappeared after 2000 and kept gong-term decline in production grain. The changes in spatial-temporal pattern of total grain production and per capital grain were similar.( 3) The gravity centers of general surplus-grain counties and important surplus-grain counties were both expressed as moving to southern and western regions. And the gravity centers of grain shortage counties and tight balance of supply-demand counties were both expressed as moving to northern and eastern regions.( 4) The sown areas of grain crops and agricultural fertilizer use all had significant positive effects on grain production.
Grain production in the Yangtze River Basin plays an important role in China. Rapid growth in population and economic development in the Yangtze River Basin over the past 30 years has occurred at the cost of encroaching croplands,resulting into the changes in grain production and food security. This paper presented a study on spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of grain production and food security at county level in the Yangtze River Basin in the recent 25 years,based on the statistics of grain production,household registration population,agricultural fertilizer use and grain crops sown areas in 1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015.The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of grain production and food security were analyzed and identified by using grain change index,exploratory spatial data analysis( ESDA),gravity centers transfer model and spatial error model( SEM). The results showed:( 1) Average annual changing rate of grain production was 0. 5%,respectively for 0. 6% of the upstream,0. 8% of the middle and-0. 7% of the lower reaches. There was a significant spatial heterogeneity in grain production. The upstream area was inferior area and the middle area was dominant growth area,Lower reaches was the weakening area.( 2) The cold point clustering of grain yield distributed in the upstream area. The year of 2000 was the turning point for the pattern change in grain production and food security. The cold points clustering pattern of grain production changed from "L"type in southwest boundary to inverted "L"type in northwest boundary after 2000 in the upstream of the basin. The hot spots clustering in the JiangHuai area and the TaiHu Lake Plain disappeared after 2000 and kept gong-term decline in production grain. The changes in spatial-temporal pattern of total grain production and per capital grain were similar.( 3) The gravity centers of general surplus-grain counties and important surplus-grain counties were both expressed as moving to southern and western regions. And the gravity centers of grain shortage counties and tight balance of supply-demand counties were both expressed as moving to northern and eastern regions.( 4) The sown areas of grain crops and agricultural fertilizer use all had significant positive effects on grain production.
引文
[1]国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)[Z]. http://www.gov.cn. 2008-11-13.
[2]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(12):4269-4274.LIU Y S,WANG J Y,GUO L Y. The spatial-temporal change of grain production and arable land in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2009,42(12):4269-4274.
[3]刘彦随,翟荣新.中国粮食生产时空格局动态及其优化策略探析[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(1):1-5.LIU Y S,ZHAI R X. Spatial-temporal pattern changes and optimal strategy of grain production in China since 1990s[J].Areal Research and Development,2009,28(1):1-5.
[4]刘玉,郭丽英,刘彦随. 1980~2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12); 230-236.LIU Y,GUO L Y,LIU Y S. Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(12):230-236.
[5]周立青,程叶青.黑龙江省粮食生产的时空格局及动因分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(3):491-501.ZHOU L Q,CHENG Y Q. Spatio-temporal pattern and its driving factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(3):491-501.
[6]潘竟虎,张建辉,胡艳兴.近20a来甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量时空格局及其驱动力研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(1):124-134.PAN J H,ZHANG J H,HU Y X. Spatial-temporal pattern of per capital grain possession and its driving forces in Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(1):124-134.
[7]李裕瑞,刘彦随,龙花楼.江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):125-131.LI Y R,LIU Y S. LONG H L. Influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province[J]. Progress Geography,2009,28(1):125-131.
[8]柴玲欢,朱会义.中国粮食生产区域集中化的演化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):908-919.CHAI L H,ZHU H Y. Evolution trend of regional centralization of grain production in China[[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):908-919.
[9]冯跃,鲁春霞,马蓓蓓.京津冀地区粮食供需的空间格局变化特征[J].资源科学,2009,31(4):566-573.FENG Y,LU C X,MA B B. Spatial pattern changes of grain supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. Resources Science,2009,31(4):566-573.
[10]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲,等. 21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-631.Y P H,FANG X Q,MA Y L,et al. New regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China in the early 21st century[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(4):625-631.
[11]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化[J].地理科学,2011,31(1):102-109.LIU Y,LIU Y S,GUO L Y. Evolvement of spatial pattern of per capita grain possession at county level in the area along Bohai Rim of China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(1):102-109.
[12]潘佩佩,杨桂山,苏伟忠,等.太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):931-943.PAN P P,YANG G S,SU W Z,et al. Spatio-temporal structure variation of grain production and the evaluation of grain security in Taihu Lake Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):931-943.
[13]柏林川,武兰芳,宋小青. 1995~2010年山东省粮食单产变化空间分异及均衡增产潜力[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(8):1257-1265.BAI L C, WU L F, SONG X Q. Spatial difference of grain yield changes during 1995-2010 and balanced potential output to increase in Shandong Province[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(8):1257-1265.
[14]李亚婷,潘少奇,苗长虹.中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局——基于户籍人口和常住人口的对比分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1753-1766.LI Y T,PAN S Q,MIAO C H. The spatial-temporal patterns of per capita share of grain at the county level in China:A comparation between registered population and resident population[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1753-1766.
[15]文琦,赵亮. 1978—2011年宁夏粮食产量重心移动轨迹及其驱动机制[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):99-102.WEN Q,ZHAO L. Changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in Ningxia from 1978 to 2011[J]. Areal Research and Development,2014,33(1):99-102.
[16]汪权方,田梦现,李娟文. 1980年以来长江流域低山丘陵区粮食生产态势分析——以湖北省咸宁市为例[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(7):615-620.WANG Q F,TIAN M X,LI J W. Grain production situation in hilly area of Yangtze Basin during 1980-2003:A case study of Xianning City,Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2007,23(7):615-620.
[17]冯兴华,钟业喜,陈琳,等.长江经济带县域经济空间格局演变分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(6):18-25.FENG X H,ZHONG Y X,CHEN L,et al. Evolution of spatial pattern of county regional economy in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Economic Geography,2016,36(6):18-25.
[18]刘玉,高秉博,潘瑜春.中国县域人均粮食占有量空间变异特征研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2012,17(3):154-162.LIU Y,GAO B B,PAN Y C,Spatial variability of per capita grain possession at county level in China[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2012,17(3):154-162.
[19]渠丽萍,杨慧.湖北省粮食生产时空变化及灰色关联动态分析[J].国土资源科技管理,2017,34(4):45-53.QU L P,YANG H. Analysis of temporal-spatial variation characters and grey relevancy of grain production in Hubei Province[J]Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2017,34(4):45-53.
[20]宋小青,欧阳竹. 1999~2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素[J].地理学报,2012,67(6):793-803.SONG X Q,OU Y Z. Key influencing factors of food security guarantee in China during 1990-2007[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(6):793-803.
[2]刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学,2009,42(12):4269-4274.LIU Y S,WANG J Y,GUO L Y. The spatial-temporal change of grain production and arable land in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2009,42(12):4269-4274.
[3]刘彦随,翟荣新.中国粮食生产时空格局动态及其优化策略探析[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(1):1-5.LIU Y S,ZHAI R X. Spatial-temporal pattern changes and optimal strategy of grain production in China since 1990s[J].Areal Research and Development,2009,28(1):1-5.
[4]刘玉,郭丽英,刘彦随. 1980~2008年环渤海地区县域粮食的时空动态变化及分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12); 230-236.LIU Y,GUO L Y,LIU Y S. Spatial-temporal dynamic change and analysis of grain production in county scale in Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2008[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(12):230-236.
[5]周立青,程叶青.黑龙江省粮食生产的时空格局及动因分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(3):491-501.ZHOU L Q,CHENG Y Q. Spatio-temporal pattern and its driving factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(3):491-501.
[6]潘竟虎,张建辉,胡艳兴.近20a来甘肃省县域人均粮食占有量时空格局及其驱动力研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(1):124-134.PAN J H,ZHANG J H,HU Y X. Spatial-temporal pattern of per capital grain possession and its driving forces in Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(1):124-134.
[7]李裕瑞,刘彦随,龙花楼.江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):125-131.LI Y R,LIU Y S. LONG H L. Influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province[J]. Progress Geography,2009,28(1):125-131.
[8]柴玲欢,朱会义.中国粮食生产区域集中化的演化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):908-919.CHAI L H,ZHU H Y. Evolution trend of regional centralization of grain production in China[[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):908-919.
[9]冯跃,鲁春霞,马蓓蓓.京津冀地区粮食供需的空间格局变化特征[J].资源科学,2009,31(4):566-573.FENG Y,LU C X,MA B B. Spatial pattern changes of grain supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. Resources Science,2009,31(4):566-573.
[10]殷培红,方修琦,马玉玲,等. 21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局[J].自然资源学报,2006,21(4):625-631.Y P H,FANG X Q,MA Y L,et al. New regional pattern of grain supply-demand in China in the early 21st century[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21(4):625-631.
[11]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化[J].地理科学,2011,31(1):102-109.LIU Y,LIU Y S,GUO L Y. Evolvement of spatial pattern of per capita grain possession at county level in the area along Bohai Rim of China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(1):102-109.
[12]潘佩佩,杨桂山,苏伟忠,等.太湖流域粮食生产时空格局演变与粮食安全评价[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):931-943.PAN P P,YANG G S,SU W Z,et al. Spatio-temporal structure variation of grain production and the evaluation of grain security in Taihu Lake Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):931-943.
[13]柏林川,武兰芳,宋小青. 1995~2010年山东省粮食单产变化空间分异及均衡增产潜力[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(8):1257-1265.BAI L C, WU L F, SONG X Q. Spatial difference of grain yield changes during 1995-2010 and balanced potential output to increase in Shandong Province[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(8):1257-1265.
[14]李亚婷,潘少奇,苗长虹.中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局——基于户籍人口和常住人口的对比分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(12):1753-1766.LI Y T,PAN S Q,MIAO C H. The spatial-temporal patterns of per capita share of grain at the county level in China:A comparation between registered population and resident population[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(12):1753-1766.
[15]文琦,赵亮. 1978—2011年宁夏粮食产量重心移动轨迹及其驱动机制[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):99-102.WEN Q,ZHAO L. Changes of grain output center of gravity and its driving forces in Ningxia from 1978 to 2011[J]. Areal Research and Development,2014,33(1):99-102.
[16]汪权方,田梦现,李娟文. 1980年以来长江流域低山丘陵区粮食生产态势分析——以湖北省咸宁市为例[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(7):615-620.WANG Q F,TIAN M X,LI J W. Grain production situation in hilly area of Yangtze Basin during 1980-2003:A case study of Xianning City,Hubei Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2007,23(7):615-620.
[17]冯兴华,钟业喜,陈琳,等.长江经济带县域经济空间格局演变分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(6):18-25.FENG X H,ZHONG Y X,CHEN L,et al. Evolution of spatial pattern of county regional economy in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Economic Geography,2016,36(6):18-25.
[18]刘玉,高秉博,潘瑜春.中国县域人均粮食占有量空间变异特征研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2012,17(3):154-162.LIU Y,GAO B B,PAN Y C,Spatial variability of per capita grain possession at county level in China[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2012,17(3):154-162.
[19]渠丽萍,杨慧.湖北省粮食生产时空变化及灰色关联动态分析[J].国土资源科技管理,2017,34(4):45-53.QU L P,YANG H. Analysis of temporal-spatial variation characters and grey relevancy of grain production in Hubei Province[J]Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2017,34(4):45-53.
[20]宋小青,欧阳竹. 1999~2007年中国粮食安全的关键影响因素[J].地理学报,2012,67(6):793-803.SONG X Q,OU Y Z. Key influencing factors of food security guarantee in China during 1990-2007[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(6):793-803.
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