降水时间随机性对月总降水量的影响
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摘要
降水量在时间分布上呈现较大的随机性,极端降水事件尤为如此。受此影响,月初(月末) 1～5 d之内的累积降水量很可能会超过当月总降水量的50%乃至更多。对1961—2017年中国2 400多站点资料统计分析结果发现,月初(月末) 1～5 d累积降水量对当月总降水量显著影响事件的出现频次,在季节和空间分布上都有鲜明特征。主要包括:1)月初累积降水量对秋冬季中各月的总降水量影响更大,月末累积降水量对1—4月的月总降水量影响较大。2)受月初累积降水量的影响,显著站点数在某些年份的某些月份出现极大值;受单次事件显著影响的站点数占全国总站点数的30%～50%,此即对应着一次全国大范围的极端降水事件。3)受月初(月末)累积降水量显著影响的站点空间分布随季节变化呈现出明显空间集聚特征。
Due to the random nature of precipitation events, the accumulated precipitation within the first( final) 1—5 days of a given month is likely to exceed 50% or more of the total precipitation in that month.Using the daily rainfall data from more than 2 400 stations in China from the period of 1961 to 2017, the statistical analyses in this paper show that such events occur with significant features in both the seasonal and spatial distribution: 1) The cumulative precipitation in the first 1—5 days can influence the monthly precipitation during the fall and winter,and the cumulative precipitation in the final several days can influence the monthly precipitation during the period of January to April.2) The number of stations significantly affected by accumulated precipitation of the first several days has a maximum value in some years and months.The number of stations significantly affected by such event reaches about 30—50% of the total number,which corresponds to a large-space extreme heavy precipitation event.3) The stations significantly affected by such events show features of spatial concentration in September.For example, the stations affected by the first 5 days of September are mainly concentrated around Shandong and Hebei Provinces,and such events in those regions have occurred about 20 times during the past 57 years.
Due to the random nature of precipitation events, the accumulated precipitation within the first( final) 1—5 days of a given month is likely to exceed 50% or more of the total precipitation in that month.Using the daily rainfall data from more than 2 400 stations in China from the period of 1961 to 2017, the statistical analyses in this paper show that such events occur with significant features in both the seasonal and spatial distribution: 1) The cumulative precipitation in the first 1—5 days can influence the monthly precipitation during the fall and winter,and the cumulative precipitation in the final several days can influence the monthly precipitation during the period of January to April.2) The number of stations significantly affected by accumulated precipitation of the first several days has a maximum value in some years and months.The number of stations significantly affected by such event reaches about 30—50% of the total number,which corresponds to a large-space extreme heavy precipitation event.3) The stations significantly affected by such events show features of spatial concentration in September.For example, the stations affected by the first 5 days of September are mainly concentrated around Shandong and Hebei Provinces,and such events in those regions have occurred about 20 times during the past 57 years.
引文
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Pendergrass A G,Knutti R,2018.The uneven nature of daily precipitation and its change[J].Geophys Res Lett,45(21):11 980-11 988.
Sun Y,Solomon S,Dai A G, et al., 2006.How often does it rain?[J].J Climate,19(6):916-934.
王苗,郭品文,邬昀, 2014.中国东部极端降水变化特征及其与大气稳定度的关系[J].大气科学学报,37(1):47-56. Wang M,Guo P W,Wu Y,2014.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in eastern China and its relationship with atmospheric stability[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(1):47 -56.(in Chinese).
余锦华,祁淼,孙齐颖,等, 2018.中国东部夏季极端降水统计特征及其与的联系[J].大气科学学报,41(1):77-84. Yu J H,Qi M,Sun Q Y,et al.,2018.Statistical characteristics of summer extreme rainfall over eastern China and its relation with El Ni1o[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(1):77-84.(in Chinese).
Zhang L J,Qian Y F,2003.Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,17(2):146-163.
Chen Y,Zhai P, 2013.Persistent extreme precipitation events in China during 1951—2010[J].Clim Res, 57(2):143-155.
贺冰蕊,翟盘茂, 2018.中国1961—2016年夏季持续和非持续性极端降水的变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,14 (5):437-444. He B X,Zhai P M, 2018.Characteristics of the persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2016[J].Adv Climate Change Res,14(5):437-444.(in Chinese).
Li H,Zhai P M,Lu E, et al., 2017.Changes in temporal concentration property of summer precipitation in China during 1961—2010 based on a new index[J].J Meteorol Res,31(2):336-349.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等, 2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35 (5):570-577. Li L P,Xu G N,Chen L P, et al.,2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):570-577.(in Chinese).
李明刚,管兆勇,韩洁,等, 2012.近50 a华东地区夏季极端降水事件的年代际变化[J].大气科学学报,35 (5):591-602. Li M G,Guan Z Y,Han J, et al.,2012.Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):591-602 .(in Chinese).
Pendergrass A G,Knutti R,2018.The uneven nature of daily precipitation and its change[J].Geophys Res Lett,45(21):11 980-11 988.
Sun Y,Solomon S,Dai A G, et al., 2006.How often does it rain?[J].J Climate,19(6):916-934.
王苗,郭品文,邬昀, 2014.中国东部极端降水变化特征及其与大气稳定度的关系[J].大气科学学报,37(1):47-56. Wang M,Guo P W,Wu Y,2014.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in eastern China and its relationship with atmospheric stability[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(1):47 -56.(in Chinese).
余锦华,祁淼,孙齐颖,等, 2018.中国东部夏季极端降水统计特征及其与的联系[J].大气科学学报,41(1):77-84. Yu J H,Qi M,Sun Q Y,et al.,2018.Statistical characteristics of summer extreme rainfall over eastern China and its relation with El Ni1o[J].Trans Atmos Sci,41(1):77-84.(in Chinese).
Zhang L J,Qian Y F,2003.Annual distribution features of precipitation in China and their interannual variations[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,17(2):146-163.
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