基于多场景的商业园区源-储-荷系统运营模式及投资决策研究
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摘要
含源-储-荷系统的智能化商业园区是我国能源互联网建设的重要方向之一。开展商业园区源-储-荷系统的运营模式及投资决策研究。从投资和运营2个角度分析不同利益主体的权责关系,提出源-储-荷系统的商业运营模式;在此基础上,基于分布式能源全寿命周期的经济性理论,分别建立源-荷、储-荷、源-储-荷3种应用场景下能源投资商和园区开发商的盈利模型;结合商业园区的电价政策,通过敏感性分析给出分布式光伏/储能投资商提升投资回报水平的建议。仿真结果表明,分布式光伏投资商在商业园区具有较高的投资回报率,而储能投资商盈亏平衡的实现有待于储能成本的下降,其降幅要求在源-储-荷应用场景下较为苛刻。
The development of intelligent business park containing source-storage-load system is one of the important directions for China's energy internet construction. So,the operation mode and investment decision of source-storageload system in the business park are studied. The authority-responsibility relationships among different stakeholders are analyzed from two aspects of investment and operation,and the commercial operation mode of the source-storageload system is proposed. Then,based on the life cycle theory of distributed energy,the revenue models of energy investors and park developers are established under three application scenarios of source-load,storage-load and sourceenergy-load respectively. Considering the electricity price policy of the business park,recommendations are put forward for distributed photovoltaic and energy storage investors to improve the return of investment based on the sensitivity analysis. Simulative results show that the distributed photovoltaic investors have a higher return on investment,while the realization of break-even of the energy storage investors depends on the cost reduction of energy storage,and the cost drop requirement is very strict in the source-energy-load application scenario.
The development of intelligent business park containing source-storage-load system is one of the important directions for China's energy internet construction. So,the operation mode and investment decision of source-storageload system in the business park are studied. The authority-responsibility relationships among different stakeholders are analyzed from two aspects of investment and operation,and the commercial operation mode of the source-storageload system is proposed. Then,based on the life cycle theory of distributed energy,the revenue models of energy investors and park developers are established under three application scenarios of source-load,storage-load and sourceenergy-load respectively. Considering the electricity price policy of the business park,recommendations are put forward for distributed photovoltaic and energy storage investors to improve the return of investment based on the sensitivity analysis. Simulative results show that the distributed photovoltaic investors have a higher return on investment,while the realization of break-even of the energy storage investors depends on the cost reduction of energy storage,and the cost drop requirement is very strict in the source-energy-load application scenario.
引文
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[15]刘建涛,曹雷,马杰,等.基于储能系统的用户光伏并网发电系统经济性分析[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(11):1887-1892.LIU Jiantao,CAO Lei,MA Jie,et al. Economic analysis of user's gridconnected PV system based on energy storage system[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2012,33(11):1887-1892.
[16]李蕊.基于不同商业运营模式的分布式电源/微电网综合效益评价方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1748-1758.LI Rui. Comprehensive benefit evaluation method of distributed generation/microgrid projects based on different business models[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1748-1758.
[2]张静. 2016年储能产业盘点——寻找储能的商业化市场[J].电器工业,2017,2:18-24.ZHANG Jing. 2016 energy storage industry inventory-search for the commercial market of energy storage[J]. Industry Observation,2017,2:18-24.
[3]胡骅,徐冲,吴汕,等.影响用户侧分布式发电经济性因素分析[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(5):29-33.HU Hua,XU Chong,WU Shan,et al. Analysis of factors influencing economy of customer-side distributed generation[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2008,28(5):29-33.
[4]梁惠施,程林,苏剑.微网的成本效益分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(增刊1):38-44.LIANG Huishi,CHENG Lin,SU Jian. Cost benefit analysis for microgrid[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(Supplement 1):38-44.
[5]黄碧斌,李琼慧.储能支撑大规模分布式光伏接入的价值评估[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):88-93.HUANG Bibin,LI Qionghui. Value assessment for energy storage in supporting large-scale integration of distributed PVs[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(6):88-93.
[6]苏剑,周莉梅,李蕊,等.分布式光伏发电并网的成本/效益分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(34):50-56.SU Jian,ZHOU Limei,LI Rui,et al. Cost-benefit analysis of distributed grid-connected photovoltaic power generation[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(34):50-56.
[7]曾鸣,赵建华,刘宏志,等.基于区间数的分布式电源投资效益分析[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(8):22-26.ZENG Ming,ZHAO Jianhua,LIU Hongzhi,et al. Investment benefit analysis based on interval number for distributed generation[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(8):22-26.
[8]薛金花,叶季蕾,陶琼,等.面向不同投资主体的分布式光伏运营策略研究[J].电网技术,2017,41(1):93-98.XUE Jinhua,YE Jilei,TAO Qiong,et al. Operating strategy of distributed PV system for different investors[J]. Power System Technology,2017,41(1):93-98.
[9]颜志敏,王承民,郑健,等.配电网中蓄电池储能系统的价值评估模型[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(2):57-61.YAN Zhimin,WANG Chengmin,ZHENG Jian,et al. Value assessment model of battery energy storage system in distributuion network[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(2):57-61.
[10]PUDJIANTO D,AUNEDI M,STRABAC G. Whole-system assessment of the value of energy storage in low-carbon electricity systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2014,5(2):1098-1108.
[11]TENG Fei,PUDGIANTO D,STRABAC G. Potential value of energy storage in the UK electricity system[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers,2015,168(2):107-117.
[12]薛金花,叶季蕾,陶琼,等.采用全寿命周期成本模型的用户侧电池储能经济可行性研究[J].电网技术,2016,40(8):2471-2476.XUE Jinhua,YE Jilei,TAO Qiong,et al. Economic feasibility of userside battery energy storage based on whole-life-cycle cost model[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(8):2471-2476.
[13]栗然,马慧卓,祝晋尧,等.分布式电源接入配电网多目标优化规划[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(1):6-12.LI Ran,MA Huizhuo,ZHU Jinyao,et al. Multi-objective optimization for DG integration into distribution system[J]. Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(1):6-12.
[14]吕双辉,蔡声霞,王守相.分布式光伏-储能系统的经济性评估及发展建议[J].中国电力,2015,48(2):139-144.LShuanghui,CAI Shengxia,WANG Shouxiang. Economy evaluation and development suggestions for distributed PV-energy storage system in China[J]. Electric Power,2015,48(2):139-144.
[15]刘建涛,曹雷,马杰,等.基于储能系统的用户光伏并网发电系统经济性分析[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(11):1887-1892.LIU Jiantao,CAO Lei,MA Jie,et al. Economic analysis of user's gridconnected PV system based on energy storage system[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2012,33(11):1887-1892.
[16]李蕊.基于不同商业运营模式的分布式电源/微电网综合效益评价方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1748-1758.LI Rui. Comprehensive benefit evaluation method of distributed generation/microgrid projects based on different business models[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1748-1758.
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