“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施的国际贸易效应研究
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摘要
研究目标:分析能源、交通、通信网络三类基础设施及其交互作用对"一带一路"沿线国家进口、出口以及域内双边贸易的影响。研究方法:采用引力模型和面板数据模型。研究发现:"一带一路"沿线国家能源基础设施和交通基础设施的进口效应、出口效应、双边贸易效应都为正;能源、交通、通信网络基础设施在国际贸易的两个方向上的作用大小不一致;不同类型基础设施的国际贸易效应大小也不一致;不同类型基础设施的交互作用对国际贸易的影响方向不确定。研究创新:定量测算"一带一路"沿线国家能源、交通、通信网络三类基础设施的进口、出口和双边贸易收益。研究价值:有助于把握"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施的国际贸易效应的现实状态,为进一步推进"一带一路"基础设施建设提供理论和数据支撑,为基础设施交互作用的国际贸易效应理论研究提供经验证据。
Research Objectives:To analyze the effect of the transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure and communications network infrastructure and their interactions on the import,export and bilateral trade of the Belt and Road countries. Research Methods:Gravity Model and Panel Data Model. Research Findings:The import effects, export effects and bilateral trade effects of energy infrastructure and transportation infrastructure of the countries along the Belt and Road are positive. The impacts of energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure and communication network infrastructure on the two directions of international are inconsistent. The international trade effects of different types of infrastructures are different. The signs of international trade effects of different interactions of infrastructures are uncertain. Research Innovations:The quantitative calculation of the import, export and bilateral trade gains of the three types of infrastructures such as energy, transportation and communication networks of the countries along the Belt and Road. Research Value: It will help to grasp the actual of the international trade effect of infrastructure of the countries along the Belt and Road, and provide theoretical and data support for further promoting the infrastructure construction of the Belt and Road, and provide more evidences for the theoretical research on the international trade effect of the infrastructures interactions.
Research Objectives:To analyze the effect of the transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure and communications network infrastructure and their interactions on the import,export and bilateral trade of the Belt and Road countries. Research Methods:Gravity Model and Panel Data Model. Research Findings:The import effects, export effects and bilateral trade effects of energy infrastructure and transportation infrastructure of the countries along the Belt and Road are positive. The impacts of energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure and communication network infrastructure on the two directions of international are inconsistent. The international trade effects of different types of infrastructures are different. The signs of international trade effects of different interactions of infrastructures are uncertain. Research Innovations:The quantitative calculation of the import, export and bilateral trade gains of the three types of infrastructures such as energy, transportation and communication networks of the countries along the Belt and Road. Research Value: It will help to grasp the actual of the international trade effect of infrastructure of the countries along the Belt and Road, and provide theoretical and data support for further promoting the infrastructure construction of the Belt and Road, and provide more evidences for the theoretical research on the international trade effect of the infrastructures interactions.
引文
[1]Anderson J. E.,Wincoop V. E.,2003,Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle [J],American Economic Review,93 (1),170～192.
[2]Bougheas S.,Demetriades P. O.,Morgenroth E. L.,1999,Infrastructure,Transport Costs and Trade [J],Journal of International Economics,47 (1),169～189.
[3]Gelbis G.,Nijkamp P.,Poot J.,2015,Infrastructure and Trade: A Metal-analysis [J],Region,1 (1),25～64.
[4]Gil-Pareja S.,Llorca-Vivero R.,Martínez-Serrano J. A.,2015,The Uneven Impact of Continental Boundaries on Trade [J],Open Economies Review,26 (2),237～257.
[5]Grigoriou C.,2007,Landlockedness,Infrastructure and Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Countries [R],World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4335.
[6]Lim?o N.,Venables A. J.,2001,Infrastructure,Geographical Disadvantage,Transport Costs,and Trade [J],World Bank Economic Review,15 (3),451～479.
[7]Longo R.,Sekkat K.,2004,Economic Obstacles to Expanding Intra-African Trade [J],World Development,32 (8),1309～1321.
[8]Martinez-Zarzoso I.,Nowak-Lehmann F.,2003,Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows [J],Journal of Applied Economics,6,291～316.
[9]Njinkeu D.,Wilson J. S.,Fosso B. P.,2008,Expanding Trade within Africa: the Impact of Trade Facilitation [R],World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4790.
[10]Shepherd B.,Wilson J. S.,2007,Trade,Infrastructure,and Roadways in Europe and Central Asia: New Empirical Evidence [J],Journal of Economic Integration,22 (4),723～747.
[11]Tinbergen J.,1962,Shaping the World Economy-Suggestions for an International Economic Policy [M],Twentieth Century Fund.
[12]杜军、鄢波:《港口基础设施建设对中国—东盟贸易的影响路径与作用机理——来自水产品贸易的经验证据》[J],《中国流通经济》2016年第6期。
[13]张鹏飞:《基础设施建设对“一带一路”亚洲国家双边贸易影响研究:基于引力模型扩展的分析》[J],《世界经济研究》2018年第6期。
[14]俞路:《“一带一路”沿线各国贸易影响因素分析——基于贸易引力模型的实证研究》[J],《开发研究》2016年第1期。
(1)资料来源:中国“一带一路”网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/。
(2)关于基础设施贸易效应的文献,见Gelbis等(2015)的文献综述。
(3)具体国家名单见中国“一带一路”网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/。
(4)本文中基础设施间的交互作用变量直接基于不同类型基础设施变量的乘积来构建。
(5)基于乘法构建两国的能源、交通和通信网络基础设施变量。
(6)基础设施进口(出口)效应的固定效应回归结果和随机效应回归结果的平均值。
(7)基于10%水平下显著的回归结果进行简单平均计算,下文计算方法与此相同。
[2]Bougheas S.,Demetriades P. O.,Morgenroth E. L.,1999,Infrastructure,Transport Costs and Trade [J],Journal of International Economics,47 (1),169～189.
[3]Gelbis G.,Nijkamp P.,Poot J.,2015,Infrastructure and Trade: A Metal-analysis [J],Region,1 (1),25～64.
[4]Gil-Pareja S.,Llorca-Vivero R.,Martínez-Serrano J. A.,2015,The Uneven Impact of Continental Boundaries on Trade [J],Open Economies Review,26 (2),237～257.
[5]Grigoriou C.,2007,Landlockedness,Infrastructure and Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Countries [R],World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4335.
[6]Lim?o N.,Venables A. J.,2001,Infrastructure,Geographical Disadvantage,Transport Costs,and Trade [J],World Bank Economic Review,15 (3),451～479.
[7]Longo R.,Sekkat K.,2004,Economic Obstacles to Expanding Intra-African Trade [J],World Development,32 (8),1309～1321.
[8]Martinez-Zarzoso I.,Nowak-Lehmann F.,2003,Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows [J],Journal of Applied Economics,6,291～316.
[9]Njinkeu D.,Wilson J. S.,Fosso B. P.,2008,Expanding Trade within Africa: the Impact of Trade Facilitation [R],World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 4790.
[10]Shepherd B.,Wilson J. S.,2007,Trade,Infrastructure,and Roadways in Europe and Central Asia: New Empirical Evidence [J],Journal of Economic Integration,22 (4),723～747.
[11]Tinbergen J.,1962,Shaping the World Economy-Suggestions for an International Economic Policy [M],Twentieth Century Fund.
[12]杜军、鄢波:《港口基础设施建设对中国—东盟贸易的影响路径与作用机理——来自水产品贸易的经验证据》[J],《中国流通经济》2016年第6期。
[13]张鹏飞:《基础设施建设对“一带一路”亚洲国家双边贸易影响研究:基于引力模型扩展的分析》[J],《世界经济研究》2018年第6期。
[14]俞路:《“一带一路”沿线各国贸易影响因素分析——基于贸易引力模型的实证研究》[J],《开发研究》2016年第1期。
(1)资料来源:中国“一带一路”网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/。
(2)关于基础设施贸易效应的文献,见Gelbis等(2015)的文献综述。
(3)具体国家名单见中国“一带一路”网,https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/。
(4)本文中基础设施间的交互作用变量直接基于不同类型基础设施变量的乘积来构建。
(5)基于乘法构建两国的能源、交通和通信网络基础设施变量。
(6)基础设施进口(出口)效应的固定效应回归结果和随机效应回归结果的平均值。
(7)基于10%水平下显著的回归结果进行简单平均计算,下文计算方法与此相同。
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