情报分析中的变量管理——基于结构化分析方法的思考

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英文篇名：Variables Management in Intelligence Analysis: Based on the Structured Analysis Method 作者：陈烨 ; 马晓娟 ; 董庆安 英文作者：Chen Ye; 关键词：结构化分析 ; 预测分析 ; 变量管理 ; 量化分析 英文关键词：structured analysis;;predictive analysis;;variable management;;quantitative analysis 中文刊名：QBLL 英文刊名：Information Studies:Theory & Application 机构：国防科技大学国际关系学院; 出版日期：2018-10-19 10:11 出版单位：情报理论与实践 年：2019 期：v.42;No.300 基金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“情报学学科建设与情报工作未来发展路径”(项目编号:17ZDA291);; 国防科技大学科研项目“结构化分析与情报分析的实战化训练”(项目编号:JS17-03-43)的研究成果 语种：中文; 页：QBLL201901003 页数：7 CN：01 ISSN：11-1762/G3 分类号：19-25

摘要

[目的/意义]预测性情报问题通常包含诸多相互作用的影响变量,识别变量、明确变量间交互作用是分析研判的基础,因此情报分析过程中进行有效的变量管理是提高情报分析质量、为情报用户提供有力支持的重要路径。[方法/过程]文章通过描述性研究、比较分析和例证等方法,明确变量管理在情报分析中的重要作用,并借助结构化分析方法,重塑了情报分析中的变量管理流程和路径。[结果/结论]认为结构化分析方法为情报分析中的变量管理提供了认知框架、操作平台、分析路径、监控渠道以及系统流程,是有效实现变量管理、提高分析质量的重要方法基础。[局限]预测的复杂性使得变量管理只能发挥有限作用,分析失误无法被完全消除。
        [Purpose/significance] Predicative intelligence issues generally include multiple interactive influencing variables. Identifying variables and their interaction have to go prior to further analysis. Thus effective variables management in intelligence analysis is a key path for high-quality and supportive analysis to intelligence users. [Method/process]The paper tries to illuminate the key role of variables management in intelligence analysis through methods of descriptive study,comparative analysis and case study,and reconstructs a whole process and path of variables management based on structured analysis techniques. [Result/conclusion] It draws a conclusion that structured analysis method provides a conceptual framework,operative platform,analytic path,supervision channel and systematic process for variables management,which is a critical method to effectively realize variables management and improve analysis quality. [Limitations]Complexity in predication makes variables management impossible to give full play or eliminate analytic failure.

引文

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