相关抽样技术在坝坡稳定可靠度分析中的应用
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摘要
高堆石坝坝坡可靠度分析需要考虑堆石料非线性强度指标互相关性的影响。与Rosenblueth法和FOSM相比,Monte Carlo法具有计算精度高、鲁棒性强的优点,但传统的Monte Carlo法不能直接对相关随机变量进行抽样模拟。提出了一种简便的相关抽样技术(CST),通过一系列独立的标准正态样本的线性组合生成相关随机变量的样本。将CST应用于Monte Carlo法,分析了某高堆石坝在地震荷载作用下的坝坡可靠度,结果表明:坝坡可靠度对堆石料非线性强度指标的互相关性较敏感,考虑互相关性后,坝坡可靠指标增大,失效概率减小。
The influence of nonlinear strength index ofrockfill materials on reliability analysis of high rockfill dam should be considered. Compared with the Rosenblueth method and FOSM,the Monte Carlo method has the advantages of high calculation accuracy and strong robustness,but the traditional Monte Carlo method cannot directly sample the correlated random variables. This paper developed a simple Correlated Sampling Technique( CST),which generated samples of correlated random variables by a series of linear combination of independent standardized normal samples. The CST was applied to the Monte Carlo method to analyze the slope reliability of a high rockfill dam under the conditions of seismic load. The research shows that the slope reliability is sensitive to the cross correlation of nonlinear strength indexes of rockfill materials. After considering the cross correlation,the slope reliability index is increased and the failure probability decreased.
The influence of nonlinear strength index ofrockfill materials on reliability analysis of high rockfill dam should be considered. Compared with the Rosenblueth method and FOSM,the Monte Carlo method has the advantages of high calculation accuracy and strong robustness,but the traditional Monte Carlo method cannot directly sample the correlated random variables. This paper developed a simple Correlated Sampling Technique( CST),which generated samples of correlated random variables by a series of linear combination of independent standardized normal samples. The CST was applied to the Monte Carlo method to analyze the slope reliability of a high rockfill dam under the conditions of seismic load. The research shows that the slope reliability is sensitive to the cross correlation of nonlinear strength indexes of rockfill materials. After considering the cross correlation,the slope reliability index is increased and the failure probability decreased.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.碾压式土石坝设计规范:DL/T 5395—2007[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2008:47-56.
[2]陈祖煜,陈立宏,孙平.非线性强度指标边坡稳定安全系数取值标准的研究[J].水力发电,2004,30(2):17-20.
[3]杨培章,吴震宇,陈建康.高堆石坝非线性强度指标坝坡稳定可靠度研究[J].人民黄河,2009,31(9):88-90.
[4]吴震宇,陈建康,周正军.基于FEM的面板堆石坝坝坡稳定及可靠度分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):85-87.
[5]黄华坚,刘洋.冶勒高沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析[J].吉林水利,2010(7):11-13.
[6]吴震宇,陈建康,许唯临,等.非线性强度指标坝坡稳定可靠度分析有关问题讨论[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(10):141-146.
[7] LIU Peiling,DER K A. Multivariate Distribution Models with Prescribed Marginals and Covariances[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1986,1:105-111.
[8] DUNCAN J M,BYRNE P M,WONG K S. Strength,StressStrain and Bulk Modulus Parameters for Finite Element Analysis of Stress and Movements in Soil Masses[M].Berkeley:University of California,1978:283-291.
[9] CHING J Y,PHOON K K,HU Y. Efficient Evaluation of Reliability for Slopes with Circular Slip Surfaces Using Importance Sampling[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2009,135:768-777.
[10] CHERUBINI C. Reliability Evaluation of Shallow Foundation Bearing Capacity on c’andφ’Soils[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2000,37:264-269.
[11] WU Zhenyu,LI Yanling,CHEN Jiankang,et al. A Reliability-Based Approach to Evaluating the Stability of High Rockfill Dams Using a Nonlinear Shear Strength Criterion[J]. Computers and Geotechnics,2013,6:42-49.
[12] WU Zhenyu,CHEN Jiankang,LI Yanling,et al. An Algorithm in Generalized Coordinate System and its Application to Reliability Analysis of Seismic Slope Stability of High Rockfill Dams[J]. Engineering Geology,2015,188:88-96.
[13] KAMIEN D. Engineering and Design:Introduction to Probability and Reliability Methods for Use in Geotechnical Engineering[M]. Washington D C:US Army Corps of Engineers,1997:545-547.
[2]陈祖煜,陈立宏,孙平.非线性强度指标边坡稳定安全系数取值标准的研究[J].水力发电,2004,30(2):17-20.
[3]杨培章,吴震宇,陈建康.高堆石坝非线性强度指标坝坡稳定可靠度研究[J].人民黄河,2009,31(9):88-90.
[4]吴震宇,陈建康,周正军.基于FEM的面板堆石坝坝坡稳定及可靠度分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):85-87.
[5]黄华坚,刘洋.冶勒高沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝坝坡稳定可靠度分析[J].吉林水利,2010(7):11-13.
[6]吴震宇,陈建康,许唯临,等.非线性强度指标坝坡稳定可靠度分析有关问题讨论[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(10):141-146.
[7] LIU Peiling,DER K A. Multivariate Distribution Models with Prescribed Marginals and Covariances[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,1986,1:105-111.
[8] DUNCAN J M,BYRNE P M,WONG K S. Strength,StressStrain and Bulk Modulus Parameters for Finite Element Analysis of Stress and Movements in Soil Masses[M].Berkeley:University of California,1978:283-291.
[9] CHING J Y,PHOON K K,HU Y. Efficient Evaluation of Reliability for Slopes with Circular Slip Surfaces Using Importance Sampling[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2009,135:768-777.
[10] CHERUBINI C. Reliability Evaluation of Shallow Foundation Bearing Capacity on c’andφ’Soils[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2000,37:264-269.
[11] WU Zhenyu,LI Yanling,CHEN Jiankang,et al. A Reliability-Based Approach to Evaluating the Stability of High Rockfill Dams Using a Nonlinear Shear Strength Criterion[J]. Computers and Geotechnics,2013,6:42-49.
[12] WU Zhenyu,CHEN Jiankang,LI Yanling,et al. An Algorithm in Generalized Coordinate System and its Application to Reliability Analysis of Seismic Slope Stability of High Rockfill Dams[J]. Engineering Geology,2015,188:88-96.
[13] KAMIEN D. Engineering and Design:Introduction to Probability and Reliability Methods for Use in Geotechnical Engineering[M]. Washington D C:US Army Corps of Engineers,1997:545-547.
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