2000年以来广东省城市人口收缩的时空演变与影响因素
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摘要
基于人口变化的视角,分别对2000—2016年间广东省县级以上城市的常住人口与户籍人口进行动态观察,分析不同类型城市人口收缩的时间变化与空间分布,并运用定量回归方法探讨其影响因素。研究发现:普遍增长伴随着局部收缩是广东省城市人口变化的主要特征,常住人口收缩数量变化具有波动性和短期性的特征,而户籍人口的波动变化则相对较平稳;省域层面城市人口收缩呈现"核心地区增长—外围地区收缩"的总体分布规律,持续收缩和片段收缩的城市主要集中在省域边缘地带。此外,产业经济动力不足、区域发展存在的差异、地方财政力量薄弱以及本地人口持续外流是导致外围地区城市人口收缩的主要影响因素。
After the reform and opening up of China began in 1978, Guangdong province made great achievements in economic development and urbanization, achieving international significance with its "Guangdong development model." In recent years, accompanied by changes in the external environment and internal conditions, a new phenomenon, named urban shrinkage, has occurred during the process of rapid urbanization, with such features as economic decline, population outflows, and vacant dwellings, in complete contrast to the traditional development path. Given this phenomenon, this paper dynamically observes the changes to the number of permanent residents and the registered population of cities above county level from 2000 to 2016. By classifying three typologies of urban population shrinkage-continuous shrinkage, episodic shrinkage, and no shrinkage-we analyze the time trajectory and spatial distribution of urban population shrinkage. In addition, we discuss the factors influencing the shrinkage of cities in Guangdong province by using a regression model to explore the effects of potential determinants(manufacturing sector, service sector, fixed-asset investment scale, public services levels in cities, average income of industrial workers, and local government financial status) on urban population shrinkage. The study had several findings. First, general growth accompanied by local shrinkage is the main characteristic of urban population change in Guangdong. The change in permanent population shrinkage is characterized by fluctuations and short-termism, and its trajectory is V-shaped, while the household registration population change is relatively stable. Second, in spatial terms, urban population shrinkage presents a distribution pattern of "core growing-edge shrinking," with cities showing continuous or episodic shrinkage mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern parts of Guangdong. In contrast to the zonal distribution of resident population shrinkage, household registration population shrinkage is mainly distributed scattered, with four counties in Qingyuan city being typical of edge-shrinking cities in Guangdong. Third, urban population shrinkage no longer follows a simple linear process at the provincial level but involves a combination of multidimensional and multifactorial motivations, including economic, institutional, social, and demographic. Industrial economic decline, regional developmental differences, local financial shortages, and local population outflows are the main factors influencing urban population shrinkage in Guangdong province. Our study offers a comprehensive method, using different typologies, for understanding urban shrinkage in its spatiotemporal evolution and provides new research evidence for determining the influences on shrinking cities in areas of rapid urbanization.
After the reform and opening up of China began in 1978, Guangdong province made great achievements in economic development and urbanization, achieving international significance with its "Guangdong development model." In recent years, accompanied by changes in the external environment and internal conditions, a new phenomenon, named urban shrinkage, has occurred during the process of rapid urbanization, with such features as economic decline, population outflows, and vacant dwellings, in complete contrast to the traditional development path. Given this phenomenon, this paper dynamically observes the changes to the number of permanent residents and the registered population of cities above county level from 2000 to 2016. By classifying three typologies of urban population shrinkage-continuous shrinkage, episodic shrinkage, and no shrinkage-we analyze the time trajectory and spatial distribution of urban population shrinkage. In addition, we discuss the factors influencing the shrinkage of cities in Guangdong province by using a regression model to explore the effects of potential determinants(manufacturing sector, service sector, fixed-asset investment scale, public services levels in cities, average income of industrial workers, and local government financial status) on urban population shrinkage. The study had several findings. First, general growth accompanied by local shrinkage is the main characteristic of urban population change in Guangdong. The change in permanent population shrinkage is characterized by fluctuations and short-termism, and its trajectory is V-shaped, while the household registration population change is relatively stable. Second, in spatial terms, urban population shrinkage presents a distribution pattern of "core growing-edge shrinking," with cities showing continuous or episodic shrinkage mainly concentrated in the eastern and northern parts of Guangdong. In contrast to the zonal distribution of resident population shrinkage, household registration population shrinkage is mainly distributed scattered, with four counties in Qingyuan city being typical of edge-shrinking cities in Guangdong. Third, urban population shrinkage no longer follows a simple linear process at the provincial level but involves a combination of multidimensional and multifactorial motivations, including economic, institutional, social, and demographic. Industrial economic decline, regional developmental differences, local financial shortages, and local population outflows are the main factors influencing urban population shrinkage in Guangdong province. Our study offers a comprehensive method, using different typologies, for understanding urban shrinkage in its spatiotemporal evolution and provides new research evidence for determining the influences on shrinking cities in areas of rapid urbanization.
引文
Alves D,Barreira A P,Guimar?es M H and Panagopoulos T.2016.Historical trajectories of currently shrinking Portuguese cities:Atypology of urban shrinkage.Cities,52:20-29.
Audirac I.2018.Shrinking cities:An unfit term for American urban policy?.Cities,75:12-19.
Beauregard R A.2009.Urban population loss in historical perspective:United States,1820-2000.Environment and Planning A,41(3):514-528.
杜志威,李郇.2017a.珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象.地理学报,72(10):1800-1811.[Du Zhiwei and Li Xun.2017a.Growth or shrinkage:new phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(10):1800-1811.]
杜志威,李郇.2017b.收缩城市的形成与规划启示--基于新马克思主义城市理论的视角.规划师,33(1):5-11.[Du Zhiwei and Li Xun.2017b.The formation and planning of shrinking cities:from new Marxism urban theory.Planners,33(1):5-11.]
符家铭,刘毅华.2018.广东省人口局部收缩特征及其影响因素--以东莞莞城为例.热带地理,38(4):525-535.[Fu Jiaming and Liu Yihua.2018.Characteristics and Factors of Shrinking Cities in Guangdong Province:A Case Study of Guancheng in Dongguan City.Tropical Geography,38(4):525-535.]
高舒琦.2015.收缩城市研究综述.城市规划学刊,(3):44-49.[Gao Shuqi.2015.A Review of Researches on Shrinking Cities.Urban Planning Forum,(3):44-49.]
广东省统计局.2017.广东统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.[Statistics Bureau of Guangdong Province.2017.Guangdong Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press.]
Haase A,Rink D,Grossmann K,Bernt M and Mykhnenko V.2014.Conceptualizing urban shrinkage.Environment and Planning A,46(7):1519-1534.
Hartt M.2018.The diversity of North American shrinking cities.Urban Studies,55(13):2946-2959.
Hattori K,Kaido K and Matsuyuki M.2017.The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan.Cities,69:124-132.
Henderson V.2002.Urbanization in developing countries.The World Bank Research Observer,17(1):89-112.
Kabisch N,Haase D and Haase A.2012.Urban population development in Europe,1991-2008:The examples of Poland and the UK.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(6):1326-1348.
Long Y and Wu K.2016.Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China.Environment and Planning A,48:220-222.
李郇,杜志威,李先锋.2015.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制.现代城市研究,(9):36-43.[Li Xun,Du Zhiwei and Li Xianfeng.The Spatial Distribution and Mechanism of City Shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta.Modern Urban Research,(9):36-43.]
李郇,吴康,龙瀛,李志刚,罗小龙,张学良,王德起,杨东峰,郐艳丽,李裕瑞,杨振山,周恺,胡毅,宋涛,戚伟,李昊,高舒琦.2017.局部收缩:后增长时代下的城市可持续发展争鸣.地理研究,36(10):1997-2016.[Li Xun,Wu Kang,Long Ying,Li Zhigang,Luo Xiaolong,Zhang Xueliang,Wang Deqi,Yang Dongfeng,Gui Yanli,Li Yurui,Yang Zhenshan,Zhou Kai,Hu Yi,Song Tao,Qi Wei,Li Hao and Gao Shuqi.2017.Academic debates upon shrinking cities in China for sustainable development.Geographical Research,36(10):1997-2016.]
林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,晁恒.2017.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析--基于人口与经济变化的视角.人文地理,32(1):82-89.[Lin Xiongbin,Yang Jiawen,Zhang Xianchun and Chao Heng.2017.Measuring shrinking cities and influential factors in urban china:perspective of population and economy.Human Geography,32(1):82-89.]
刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.2015.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应--基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析.地理学报,70(4):567-581.[LiuTao,Qi Yuanjing and Cao Guangzhong.2015.China’s floating population in the 21st century:Uneven landscape,influencing factors,and effects on urbanization.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(4):567-581.]
刘玉博,张学良.2017.武汉城市圈城市收缩现象研究.规划师,33(1):18-25.[Liu Yubo and Zhang Xueliang.2017.A study on the shrinkage of Wuhan metropolitan area.Planners,33(1):18-25.]
龙瀛,李郇.2015.收缩城市--国际经验和中国现实.现代城市研究,(9):1.[Long Ying and Li Xun.Shrinking cities:international evidence and Chinese reality.Modern Urban Research,(9):1.]
龙瀛.2015.高度重视人口收缩对城市规划的挑战.探索与争鸣,(6):32-33.[Long Ying.2015.Highly attention to the challenge of population shrinking to urban planning.Exploration and Free Views,(6):32-33.]
马佐澎,李诚固,张婧,周国磊,申庆喜.2016.发达国家城市收缩现象及其对中国的启示.人文地理,31(2):13-17.[Ma Zuopeng,Li Chenggu,Zhang Jing,Zhou Guolei and Shen Qingxi.2016.Urban shrinkage in developed countries and its implications for china.Human Geography,31(2):13-17.]
Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S and Cunningham-Sabot E.2012.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):213-225.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Weyman T,Fol S,Audirac I,Cunningham-Sabot E,Wiechmann T and Yahagi H.2016.Shrinking cities in Australia,Japan,Europe and the USA:From a global process to local policy responses.Progress in Planning,105:1-48.
Mykhnenko V and Turok I.2008.East European cities-patterns of growth and decline,1960-2005.International Planning Studies,13(4):311-342.
Oswalt P.2005.Shrinking cities,volume 1:International research.Ostfildern-Ruit:Hatje Cantz.
Pallagst K,Wiechmann T and Martinez-Fernandez C.2013.Shrinking cities:international perspectives and policy implications.N Y:Routledge.
秦小珍,杜志威.2017.金融危机背景下农村城镇化地区收缩及规划应对--以东莞市长安镇上沙村为例.规划师,33(1):33-38.[Qin Xiaozhen and Du Zhiwei.2017.Shrinkage and planning respond of urbanized countryside in financial crisis:Shangsha village,Chang’an town,Dongguan city.Planners,33(1):33-38.]
Rieniets T.2009.Shrinking cities:causes and effects of urban population losses in the twentieth century.Nature and Culture,4(3):231-254.
Schilling J and Logan J.2008.Greening the rust belt:A green infrastructure model for right sizing America's shrinking cities.Journal of the American Planning Association,74(4):451-466.
舒元,储小平,李郇,周永章,徐现祥,蔡荣鑫,才国伟,王贤彬.2008.广东发展模式:广东经济发展30年.广州:广东人民出版社.[Shu Yuan,Chu Xiaoping,Li Xun,Zhou Yongzhang,Xu Xianxiang,Cai Rongxin,Cai Guowei,Wang Xianbin.2008.Guangdong Development Mode:Guangdong economic development in 30 Years.Guangzhou:Guangdong People’s Publishing House.]
Turok I and Mykhnenko V.2007.The trajectories of European cities,1960-2005.Cities,24(3):165-182.
Vogel E F.1990.One step ahead in China:Guangdong under reform.MA:Harvard University Press.
Wiechmann T and Pallagst K M.2012.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):261-280.
Wiechmann T and Wolff M.2013.Urban shrinkage in a spatial perspective:Operationalization of shrinking cities in Europe,1990-2010.AESOP-ACSP Joint Congress,1519.
Wolff M and Wiechmann T.2018.Urban growth and decline:Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990-2010.European Urban and Regional Studies,25(2):122-139.
WORLD BANK.1997.China 2020:sharing rising incomes.Washington:World Bank.
吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.2015.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别.现代城市研究,(9):26-35.[Wu Kang,Long Ying and Yang Yu.2015.Urban Shrinkage in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Yangtze River Delta:Pattern,Trajectory and Factors.Modern Urban Research,(9):26-35.]
吴康,孙东琪.2017.城市收缩的研究进展与展望.经济地理,37(11):59-67.[Wu Kang and Sun Dongqi.2017.Progress in urban shrinkage research.Economic Geography,37(11):59-67.]
徐博,庞德良.2014.增长与衰退:国际城市收缩问题研究及对中国的启示.经济学家,(4):5-13.[Xu Bo and Pang Deliang.2014.Growth and decline:The study of the international urban contraction and its implications for China.Economist,(4):5-13.]
Yang Z S and Dunford M.2018.City shrinkage in China:scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses.Regional Studies,52:1111-1121.
于涛方.2012.中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素.中国人口科学,(4):47-58,111-112.[Yu Taofang.2012.Spatialtemporal features and influential Factors of the China urban floating population growth.Chinese Journal of Population Science,(4):47-58,111-112.]
张学良,刘玉博,吕存超.2016.中国城市收缩的背景、识别与特征分析.东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),18(4):132-139,148.[Zhang Xueliang,Liu Yubo and Lv Cunchao.2016.The background,identification of shrinking cities in China.Journal of Southeast University:Philosophy and Social Science,18(4):132-139,148.]
周恺,钱芳芳.2015.收缩城市:逆增长情景下的城市发展路径研究进展.现代城市研究,(9):2-13.[Zhou Kai and Qian Fangfang.2015.Shrinking city:On searching for urban development in non-growing scenarios.Modern Urban Research,(9):2-13.]
周恺,钱芳芳,严妍.2017.湖南省多地理尺度下的人口“收缩地图”.地理研究,36(2):267-280.[Zhou Kai,Qian Fangfang and Yan Yan.2017.A multi-scaled analysis of the“Shrinking Map”of the population in Hunan province.Geographical Research,36(2):267-280.]
张京祥,冯灿芳,陈浩.2017.城市收缩的国际研究与中国本土化探索.国际城市规划,32(5):1-9.[Zhang Jingxiang,Zhao Dan and Chen Hao.2017.International Research and China’s Exploration of Urban Shrinking.Urban Planning International,32(5):1-9.]
Audirac I.2018.Shrinking cities:An unfit term for American urban policy?.Cities,75:12-19.
Beauregard R A.2009.Urban population loss in historical perspective:United States,1820-2000.Environment and Planning A,41(3):514-528.
杜志威,李郇.2017a.珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象.地理学报,72(10):1800-1811.[Du Zhiwei and Li Xun.2017a.Growth or shrinkage:new phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta.Acta Geographica Sinica,72(10):1800-1811.]
杜志威,李郇.2017b.收缩城市的形成与规划启示--基于新马克思主义城市理论的视角.规划师,33(1):5-11.[Du Zhiwei and Li Xun.2017b.The formation and planning of shrinking cities:from new Marxism urban theory.Planners,33(1):5-11.]
符家铭,刘毅华.2018.广东省人口局部收缩特征及其影响因素--以东莞莞城为例.热带地理,38(4):525-535.[Fu Jiaming and Liu Yihua.2018.Characteristics and Factors of Shrinking Cities in Guangdong Province:A Case Study of Guancheng in Dongguan City.Tropical Geography,38(4):525-535.]
高舒琦.2015.收缩城市研究综述.城市规划学刊,(3):44-49.[Gao Shuqi.2015.A Review of Researches on Shrinking Cities.Urban Planning Forum,(3):44-49.]
广东省统计局.2017.广东统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社.[Statistics Bureau of Guangdong Province.2017.Guangdong Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press.]
Haase A,Rink D,Grossmann K,Bernt M and Mykhnenko V.2014.Conceptualizing urban shrinkage.Environment and Planning A,46(7):1519-1534.
Hartt M.2018.The diversity of North American shrinking cities.Urban Studies,55(13):2946-2959.
Hattori K,Kaido K and Matsuyuki M.2017.The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan.Cities,69:124-132.
Henderson V.2002.Urbanization in developing countries.The World Bank Research Observer,17(1):89-112.
Kabisch N,Haase D and Haase A.2012.Urban population development in Europe,1991-2008:The examples of Poland and the UK.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(6):1326-1348.
Long Y and Wu K.2016.Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China.Environment and Planning A,48:220-222.
李郇,杜志威,李先锋.2015.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制.现代城市研究,(9):36-43.[Li Xun,Du Zhiwei and Li Xianfeng.The Spatial Distribution and Mechanism of City Shrinkage in the Pearl River Delta.Modern Urban Research,(9):36-43.]
李郇,吴康,龙瀛,李志刚,罗小龙,张学良,王德起,杨东峰,郐艳丽,李裕瑞,杨振山,周恺,胡毅,宋涛,戚伟,李昊,高舒琦.2017.局部收缩:后增长时代下的城市可持续发展争鸣.地理研究,36(10):1997-2016.[Li Xun,Wu Kang,Long Ying,Li Zhigang,Luo Xiaolong,Zhang Xueliang,Wang Deqi,Yang Dongfeng,Gui Yanli,Li Yurui,Yang Zhenshan,Zhou Kai,Hu Yi,Song Tao,Qi Wei,Li Hao and Gao Shuqi.2017.Academic debates upon shrinking cities in China for sustainable development.Geographical Research,36(10):1997-2016.]
林雄斌,杨家文,张衔春,晁恒.2017.我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析--基于人口与经济变化的视角.人文地理,32(1):82-89.[Lin Xiongbin,Yang Jiawen,Zhang Xianchun and Chao Heng.2017.Measuring shrinking cities and influential factors in urban china:perspective of population and economy.Human Geography,32(1):82-89.]
刘涛,齐元静,曹广忠.2015.中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应--基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析.地理学报,70(4):567-581.[LiuTao,Qi Yuanjing and Cao Guangzhong.2015.China’s floating population in the 21st century:Uneven landscape,influencing factors,and effects on urbanization.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(4):567-581.]
刘玉博,张学良.2017.武汉城市圈城市收缩现象研究.规划师,33(1):18-25.[Liu Yubo and Zhang Xueliang.2017.A study on the shrinkage of Wuhan metropolitan area.Planners,33(1):18-25.]
龙瀛,李郇.2015.收缩城市--国际经验和中国现实.现代城市研究,(9):1.[Long Ying and Li Xun.Shrinking cities:international evidence and Chinese reality.Modern Urban Research,(9):1.]
龙瀛.2015.高度重视人口收缩对城市规划的挑战.探索与争鸣,(6):32-33.[Long Ying.2015.Highly attention to the challenge of population shrinking to urban planning.Exploration and Free Views,(6):32-33.]
马佐澎,李诚固,张婧,周国磊,申庆喜.2016.发达国家城市收缩现象及其对中国的启示.人文地理,31(2):13-17.[Ma Zuopeng,Li Chenggu,Zhang Jing,Zhou Guolei and Shen Qingxi.2016.Urban shrinkage in developed countries and its implications for china.Human Geography,31(2):13-17.]
Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S and Cunningham-Sabot E.2012.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):213-225.
Martinez-Fernandez C,Weyman T,Fol S,Audirac I,Cunningham-Sabot E,Wiechmann T and Yahagi H.2016.Shrinking cities in Australia,Japan,Europe and the USA:From a global process to local policy responses.Progress in Planning,105:1-48.
Mykhnenko V and Turok I.2008.East European cities-patterns of growth and decline,1960-2005.International Planning Studies,13(4):311-342.
Oswalt P.2005.Shrinking cities,volume 1:International research.Ostfildern-Ruit:Hatje Cantz.
Pallagst K,Wiechmann T and Martinez-Fernandez C.2013.Shrinking cities:international perspectives and policy implications.N Y:Routledge.
秦小珍,杜志威.2017.金融危机背景下农村城镇化地区收缩及规划应对--以东莞市长安镇上沙村为例.规划师,33(1):33-38.[Qin Xiaozhen and Du Zhiwei.2017.Shrinkage and planning respond of urbanized countryside in financial crisis:Shangsha village,Chang’an town,Dongguan city.Planners,33(1):33-38.]
Rieniets T.2009.Shrinking cities:causes and effects of urban population losses in the twentieth century.Nature and Culture,4(3):231-254.
Schilling J and Logan J.2008.Greening the rust belt:A green infrastructure model for right sizing America's shrinking cities.Journal of the American Planning Association,74(4):451-466.
舒元,储小平,李郇,周永章,徐现祥,蔡荣鑫,才国伟,王贤彬.2008.广东发展模式:广东经济发展30年.广州:广东人民出版社.[Shu Yuan,Chu Xiaoping,Li Xun,Zhou Yongzhang,Xu Xianxiang,Cai Rongxin,Cai Guowei,Wang Xianbin.2008.Guangdong Development Mode:Guangdong economic development in 30 Years.Guangzhou:Guangdong People’s Publishing House.]
Turok I and Mykhnenko V.2007.The trajectories of European cities,1960-2005.Cities,24(3):165-182.
Vogel E F.1990.One step ahead in China:Guangdong under reform.MA:Harvard University Press.
Wiechmann T and Pallagst K M.2012.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:A comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,36(2):261-280.
Wiechmann T and Wolff M.2013.Urban shrinkage in a spatial perspective:Operationalization of shrinking cities in Europe,1990-2010.AESOP-ACSP Joint Congress,1519.
Wolff M and Wiechmann T.2018.Urban growth and decline:Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990-2010.European Urban and Regional Studies,25(2):122-139.
WORLD BANK.1997.China 2020:sharing rising incomes.Washington:World Bank.
吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.2015.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别.现代城市研究,(9):26-35.[Wu Kang,Long Ying and Yang Yu.2015.Urban Shrinkage in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Yangtze River Delta:Pattern,Trajectory and Factors.Modern Urban Research,(9):26-35.]
吴康,孙东琪.2017.城市收缩的研究进展与展望.经济地理,37(11):59-67.[Wu Kang and Sun Dongqi.2017.Progress in urban shrinkage research.Economic Geography,37(11):59-67.]
徐博,庞德良.2014.增长与衰退:国际城市收缩问题研究及对中国的启示.经济学家,(4):5-13.[Xu Bo and Pang Deliang.2014.Growth and decline:The study of the international urban contraction and its implications for China.Economist,(4):5-13.]
Yang Z S and Dunford M.2018.City shrinkage in China:scalar processes of urban and hukou population losses.Regional Studies,52:1111-1121.
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