中国粮食作物种植结构调整及其水土资源利用效应
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摘要
粮食种植结构调整会影响农业资源的消耗需求。20世纪90年代中后期以来,玉米在我国粮食生产中的地位明显提升。以粮食种植结构无调整为参照情景,一定产量下,1996-2015年,在国家层面,因粮食种植结构调整对水土资源消耗的节省量约占现期需求量的4%左右。在区域层面,从结构调整对种植面积的减省效应看,耕地资源相对丰富的北方地区明显高于南方地区;从对水资源消耗的减省效应看,北方贫水区也普遍高于南方地区,干旱度最高的西北地区最高。期间区域分品种粮食生产广泛受到作物种植比例变化的影响。研究结果表明,要充分利用好南方水热资源,恢复水稻生产,主要取决于稻米需求及其种植效益,而北方地区则要尽可能按降水规律调整农作制度,合理控制水稻、小麦的种植面积。
Estimation of the effect of grain production adjustment on the consumption of water and land resources will help to formulate the strategy for sustainable agricultural development.Since the mid and late 1990 s, the proportion of corn in China's grain production has been obviously improved. Taking grain cropping structure without adjustment as the base scenario,and under certain grain output, the actual grain production adjustment in China during 1996-2015 has brought about the savings of water and land resources, accounting for about 4.2% and 3.7% of current demand in grain production respectively. The adjustment of grain production comes from grain demand structure change, which helps to alleviate the consumption pressure of water/land resources in grain production to some extent, though China's dietary transformation requires more agricultural resources. At the regional level, from the effect of structural adjustment on the demand for planting area, the savings in northern regions with relatively abundant arable land resources are significantly higher than those in the south. The area saving effect is higher in the northeast and northwest regions, and the least in southeastern coastal areas. From the effect of structural adjustment on the demand for water resources, the savings in northern regions are generally higher than those in the south, the highest in the northwest region with the highest drought degree, and the water saving effect in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is minimal. During the period, the output of regional grain crops has been widely affected by the change of cropping proportion, which is the indicator of the planting benefit and implies the change of consumption demand. Feed grain demand has increased more than rice and wheat rations, making the northern region suitable for corn planting become China's main grain production area. In the southern rice region, the demand for rice is relatively limited, and the regional production advantages of wheat, corn and soybeans are also lacking, which causes the relative stagnation of grain production in the south.To this end, in southern China, the recovery of grain production and full utilization of the potential of water/heat resources mainly depend on the consumption demand for rice and farmers' planting benefit. For the northern region, in order to reduce the amount of groundwater irrigation, it is necessary to rationally control the cropping area of rice and wheat and to adjust farming system according to the law of precipitation as far as possible.
Estimation of the effect of grain production adjustment on the consumption of water and land resources will help to formulate the strategy for sustainable agricultural development.Since the mid and late 1990 s, the proportion of corn in China's grain production has been obviously improved. Taking grain cropping structure without adjustment as the base scenario,and under certain grain output, the actual grain production adjustment in China during 1996-2015 has brought about the savings of water and land resources, accounting for about 4.2% and 3.7% of current demand in grain production respectively. The adjustment of grain production comes from grain demand structure change, which helps to alleviate the consumption pressure of water/land resources in grain production to some extent, though China's dietary transformation requires more agricultural resources. At the regional level, from the effect of structural adjustment on the demand for planting area, the savings in northern regions with relatively abundant arable land resources are significantly higher than those in the south. The area saving effect is higher in the northeast and northwest regions, and the least in southeastern coastal areas. From the effect of structural adjustment on the demand for water resources, the savings in northern regions are generally higher than those in the south, the highest in the northwest region with the highest drought degree, and the water saving effect in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is minimal. During the period, the output of regional grain crops has been widely affected by the change of cropping proportion, which is the indicator of the planting benefit and implies the change of consumption demand. Feed grain demand has increased more than rice and wheat rations, making the northern region suitable for corn planting become China's main grain production area. In the southern rice region, the demand for rice is relatively limited, and the regional production advantages of wheat, corn and soybeans are also lacking, which causes the relative stagnation of grain production in the south.To this end, in southern China, the recovery of grain production and full utilization of the potential of water/heat resources mainly depend on the consumption demand for rice and farmers' planting benefit. For the northern region, in order to reduce the amount of groundwater irrigation, it is necessary to rationally control the cropping area of rice and wheat and to adjust farming system according to the law of precipitation as far as possible.
引文
[1]刘彦随,吴传钧.中国水土资源态势与可持续食物安全.自然资源学报, 2002, 17(3):271-275.[LIU Y S, WU C J. Situation of land-water resources and analysis of sustainable food security in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(3):271-275.]
[2] BROWN L R, HALWEIL B. China's water shortage could shake world food security. World Watch, 1998, 11(4):10-18.
[3]刘玉杰,杨艳昭,封志明.中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及其可能影响.资源科学, 2007, 29(2):8-14.[LIU Y J,YANG Y Z, FENG Z M. The change of the main regions for China's foodgrain production and its implications. Resources Science, 2007, 29(2):8-14.]
[4] LI T T, LONG H L, ZHANG Y N, et al. Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system. Land Use Policy, 2017, 60:26-36.
[5]王立祥.论“北粮南运”与我国水资源合理利用.干旱地区农业研究, 2001, 19(1):1-7.[WANG L X. On the situation of sending grains from the North to the South and rational utilization of water resources in China. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2001, 19(1):1-7.]
[6]王浩,杨贵羽,杨朝晖.水土资源约束下保障粮食安全的战略思考.中国科学院院刊, 2013, 28(3):329-336.[WANG H, YANG G Y, YANG Z H. Thinking of agriculture development in China based on regional water resources and land cultivation. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013, 28(3):329-336.]
[7]梁美社.基于虚拟水土资源贸易的区域农业结构优化研究.杨凌:西北农林科技大学, 2011.[LIANG M S. Optimal regional agricultural planting structure under the trade of virtual water-land resources. Yangling:Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, 2011.]
[8] JIN T, QIN X Y, HUANG L Y. Changes in grain production and the optimal spatial allocation of water resources in China. Journal of Resources&Ecology, 2016, 7(1):28-35.
[9] YOU L, SPOOR M, ULIMWENGU J, et al. Land use change and environmental stress of wheat, rice and corn production in China. China Economic Review, 2011, 22(4):461-473.
[10]陈佑启.中国区域性耕地资源变化影响评价与粮食安全预警研究.北京:中国农业科学技术出版社, 2010.[CHEN Y Q. Study on the Impact Assessment of Regional Cultivated Land Resources Change and the Early Warning of Grain Security in China. Beijing:Chinese Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 2010.]
[11]金涛.中国粮食生产时空变化及其耕地利用效应.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(6):911-919.[JIN T. Effects of cultivated land use on temporal-spatial variation of grain production in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(6):911-919.]
[12] KUANG W, HU Y J, DAI X Q, et al. Investigation of changes in water resources and grain production in China:Changing patterns and uncertainties. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 2015, 122(3/4):557-565.
[13]孙才志,张蕾.中国农产品虚拟水-耕地资源区域时空差异演变.资源科学, 2009, 31(1):84-93.[SUN C Z, ZHANG L. Changes in spatial and temporal differences of agricultural product virtual water versus cultivated land in China. Resources Science, 2009, 31(1):84-93.]
[14]邹君,谢杨艳,李伯华,等.虚拟水战略背景下的中国粮食生产空间布局优化研究.地域研究与开发, 2010, 29(5):22-27.[ZOU J, XIE Y Y, LI B H, et al. Study on spatial adjustment of food production under the background of virtual water strategy. Areal Research and Development, 2010, 29(5):22-27.]
[15]朱晶,李天祥,朱珏.江苏省粮食增产的贡献因素分解与测算(2004-2013年):基于粮食内部种植结构调整的视角.华东经济管理, 2015, 29(3):11-16.[ZHU J, LI T X, ZHU Y. Estimating and decomposing the contribution factors of Jiangsu province's from 2004 to 2013 grain production growth:From the perspective of intercrop structural adjustment.East China Economic Management, 2015, 29(3):11-16.]
[16]金涛,张淼,陆建飞.江苏省粮食单产空间差异的因素分解.地理与地理信息科学, 2014, 30(5):48-53.[JIN T,ZHANG M, LU J F. Decomposition analysis for spatial variation of grain yield per hectare in Jiangsu province. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2014, 30(5):48-53.]
[17]李天祥,朱晶.近十年来中国粮食内部种植结构调整对水土资源利用的影响分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(9):96-102.[LI T X, ZHU J. Impacts of inter-crop structural adjustment on China's water and land use in grain production in the last ten years. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(9):96-102.]
[18]曹志宏.基于谷物当量的中国居民食物消费变化及其对农业生产需求分析.资源科学, 2013, 35(11):2181-2187.[CAO Z H. Changes in Chinese food consumption and agricultural production requirements based on cereal equivalent.Resources Science, 2013, 35(11):2181-2187.]
[19]任继周,林慧龙.农田当量的涵义及其所揭示的我国土地资源的食物生产潜力:一个土地资源的食物生产能力评价的新量纲及其在我国的应用.草业学报, 2006, 15(5):1-10.[REN J Z, LIN H L. Arable land equivalent unit and potential food productivity of land resources in China. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2006, 15(5):1-10.]
[20]封志明,孙通,杨艳昭. 2003-2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6):895-907.[FENG Z M, SUN T, YANG Y Z. Study on the spatiotemporal patterns and contribution factors of China's grain output increase during 2003-2013. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(6):895-907.]
[21]谭永忠,何巨,岳文泽,等.全国第二次土地调查前后中国耕地面积变化的空间格局.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):186-197.[TAN Y Z, HE J, YUE W Z, et al. Spatial pattern change of the cultivated land before and after the second national land survey in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):186-197.]
[22]刘书通,李春生,方福平,等.我国水稻生产区域变化及其比较优势分析.中国稻米, 2014, 20(4):9-13.[LIU S T, LI C S, FANG F P, et al. Study on the variation and comparative advantage of regional rice production structure in China.Chinese Rice, 2014, 20(4):9-13.]
[23]何奇瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性.科学通报, 2012, 57(4):267-275.[HE Q J, ZHOU G S. Climatic suitability of maize cultivation distribution in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(4):267-275.]
[2] BROWN L R, HALWEIL B. China's water shortage could shake world food security. World Watch, 1998, 11(4):10-18.
[3]刘玉杰,杨艳昭,封志明.中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及其可能影响.资源科学, 2007, 29(2):8-14.[LIU Y J,YANG Y Z, FENG Z M. The change of the main regions for China's foodgrain production and its implications. Resources Science, 2007, 29(2):8-14.]
[4] LI T T, LONG H L, ZHANG Y N, et al. Analysis of the spatial mismatch of grain production and farmland resources in China based on the potential crop rotation system. Land Use Policy, 2017, 60:26-36.
[5]王立祥.论“北粮南运”与我国水资源合理利用.干旱地区农业研究, 2001, 19(1):1-7.[WANG L X. On the situation of sending grains from the North to the South and rational utilization of water resources in China. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2001, 19(1):1-7.]
[6]王浩,杨贵羽,杨朝晖.水土资源约束下保障粮食安全的战略思考.中国科学院院刊, 2013, 28(3):329-336.[WANG H, YANG G Y, YANG Z H. Thinking of agriculture development in China based on regional water resources and land cultivation. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2013, 28(3):329-336.]
[7]梁美社.基于虚拟水土资源贸易的区域农业结构优化研究.杨凌:西北农林科技大学, 2011.[LIANG M S. Optimal regional agricultural planting structure under the trade of virtual water-land resources. Yangling:Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, 2011.]
[8] JIN T, QIN X Y, HUANG L Y. Changes in grain production and the optimal spatial allocation of water resources in China. Journal of Resources&Ecology, 2016, 7(1):28-35.
[9] YOU L, SPOOR M, ULIMWENGU J, et al. Land use change and environmental stress of wheat, rice and corn production in China. China Economic Review, 2011, 22(4):461-473.
[10]陈佑启.中国区域性耕地资源变化影响评价与粮食安全预警研究.北京:中国农业科学技术出版社, 2010.[CHEN Y Q. Study on the Impact Assessment of Regional Cultivated Land Resources Change and the Early Warning of Grain Security in China. Beijing:Chinese Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 2010.]
[11]金涛.中国粮食生产时空变化及其耕地利用效应.自然资源学报, 2014, 29(6):911-919.[JIN T. Effects of cultivated land use on temporal-spatial variation of grain production in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(6):911-919.]
[12] KUANG W, HU Y J, DAI X Q, et al. Investigation of changes in water resources and grain production in China:Changing patterns and uncertainties. Theoretical&Applied Climatology, 2015, 122(3/4):557-565.
[13]孙才志,张蕾.中国农产品虚拟水-耕地资源区域时空差异演变.资源科学, 2009, 31(1):84-93.[SUN C Z, ZHANG L. Changes in spatial and temporal differences of agricultural product virtual water versus cultivated land in China. Resources Science, 2009, 31(1):84-93.]
[14]邹君,谢杨艳,李伯华,等.虚拟水战略背景下的中国粮食生产空间布局优化研究.地域研究与开发, 2010, 29(5):22-27.[ZOU J, XIE Y Y, LI B H, et al. Study on spatial adjustment of food production under the background of virtual water strategy. Areal Research and Development, 2010, 29(5):22-27.]
[15]朱晶,李天祥,朱珏.江苏省粮食增产的贡献因素分解与测算(2004-2013年):基于粮食内部种植结构调整的视角.华东经济管理, 2015, 29(3):11-16.[ZHU J, LI T X, ZHU Y. Estimating and decomposing the contribution factors of Jiangsu province's from 2004 to 2013 grain production growth:From the perspective of intercrop structural adjustment.East China Economic Management, 2015, 29(3):11-16.]
[16]金涛,张淼,陆建飞.江苏省粮食单产空间差异的因素分解.地理与地理信息科学, 2014, 30(5):48-53.[JIN T,ZHANG M, LU J F. Decomposition analysis for spatial variation of grain yield per hectare in Jiangsu province. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2014, 30(5):48-53.]
[17]李天祥,朱晶.近十年来中国粮食内部种植结构调整对水土资源利用的影响分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(9):96-102.[LI T X, ZHU J. Impacts of inter-crop structural adjustment on China's water and land use in grain production in the last ten years. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(9):96-102.]
[18]曹志宏.基于谷物当量的中国居民食物消费变化及其对农业生产需求分析.资源科学, 2013, 35(11):2181-2187.[CAO Z H. Changes in Chinese food consumption and agricultural production requirements based on cereal equivalent.Resources Science, 2013, 35(11):2181-2187.]
[19]任继周,林慧龙.农田当量的涵义及其所揭示的我国土地资源的食物生产潜力:一个土地资源的食物生产能力评价的新量纲及其在我国的应用.草业学报, 2006, 15(5):1-10.[REN J Z, LIN H L. Arable land equivalent unit and potential food productivity of land resources in China. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2006, 15(5):1-10.]
[20]封志明,孙通,杨艳昭. 2003-2013年中国粮食增产格局及其贡献因素研究.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(6):895-907.[FENG Z M, SUN T, YANG Y Z. Study on the spatiotemporal patterns and contribution factors of China's grain output increase during 2003-2013. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(6):895-907.]
[21]谭永忠,何巨,岳文泽,等.全国第二次土地调查前后中国耕地面积变化的空间格局.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):186-197.[TAN Y Z, HE J, YUE W Z, et al. Spatial pattern change of the cultivated land before and after the second national land survey in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):186-197.]
[22]刘书通,李春生,方福平,等.我国水稻生产区域变化及其比较优势分析.中国稻米, 2014, 20(4):9-13.[LIU S T, LI C S, FANG F P, et al. Study on the variation and comparative advantage of regional rice production structure in China.Chinese Rice, 2014, 20(4):9-13.]
[23]何奇瑾,周广胜.我国玉米种植区分布的气候适宜性.科学通报, 2012, 57(4):267-275.[HE Q J, ZHOU G S. Climatic suitability of maize cultivation distribution in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(4):267-275.]
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