土地利用和气候变化对嘉陵江流域水文特征的影响
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摘要
以嘉陵江流域为研究区,通过模型校准与验证得到适宜于该流域的SWAT模型,在综合考虑土地利用和气候变化特征的基础上构建多种情景模式,模拟了不同情景下的主要水文要素。结果表明:(1)1985—2005年,流域林地减少,城镇和农村居民用地增加;草地和工业用地在上游减少,中下游地区增加;耕地在上游增加,中下游地区减少。流域总体呈暖干化趋势,上游地区水热条件的变化较中下游地区大。(2)与1976—1995年相比,土地利用和气候变化共同作用使地表径流增加,地下径流、土壤含水量、壤中流、实际蒸散发和产水量减少。其中,气候变化对流域水文过程的影响大于土地利用变化。林草地具有明显的水土保持作用,耕地在水土保持和水源涵养方面呈负贡献。RCP8.5情景下年平均产水量较RCP 4.5情景高,但长期来看,RCP 4.5情景对降低地表径流和实际蒸散发,增加地下径流、壤中流和产水量的作用优于RCP 8.5。(3)土地利用和气候变化对流域地表径流的影响较大,对中下游的影响大于对上游的影响。
Taking Jialing River Basin as the research area,we got a suitable model by calibrating distributed hydrological model SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool),constructed scenarios based on comprehensive consideration of variation characteristics of Land use and climate changes,and simulated the hydrological factors and discussed the hydrological response in different scenarios at basin scale.The results showed that:(1)between 1985 and 2005,the forestland area decreased,urban and rural residential land area increased;grassland and industrial land area decreased in the upper reaches and increased in the middle and lower reaches;cultivated land area increased in the upper reaches and decreased in the middle and lower reaches;The whole basin was warm and dry,and the change of water and heat conditions in the upper reaches was larger than that in the middle and lower reaches;(2)compared with the data in the period from 1976 to 1995,the joint action of land use and climate change increased surface runoff,and decreased groundwater runoff,soil water content,interflow,actual evapotranspiration and water yield;the impact of climate change on hydrological process was greater than that of land use change;forestland and grassland had obvious function of soil and water conservation,and farmland had negative contribution to soil and water conservation;the wateryield under the RCP 8.5 scenario was higher than RCP 4.5 scenario;but in the long term,the climatic conditions of RCP 4.5 is superior to RCP 8.5 in reducing surface runoff and actual evapotranspiration,and increasing groundwater runoff,interflow and water yield;(3)land use and climate change had the greater impact on the surface runoff,which was more significant in the middle and lower reaches than that in the upper reaches in this basin.
Taking Jialing River Basin as the research area,we got a suitable model by calibrating distributed hydrological model SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool),constructed scenarios based on comprehensive consideration of variation characteristics of Land use and climate changes,and simulated the hydrological factors and discussed the hydrological response in different scenarios at basin scale.The results showed that:(1)between 1985 and 2005,the forestland area decreased,urban and rural residential land area increased;grassland and industrial land area decreased in the upper reaches and increased in the middle and lower reaches;cultivated land area increased in the upper reaches and decreased in the middle and lower reaches;The whole basin was warm and dry,and the change of water and heat conditions in the upper reaches was larger than that in the middle and lower reaches;(2)compared with the data in the period from 1976 to 1995,the joint action of land use and climate change increased surface runoff,and decreased groundwater runoff,soil water content,interflow,actual evapotranspiration and water yield;the impact of climate change on hydrological process was greater than that of land use change;forestland and grassland had obvious function of soil and water conservation,and farmland had negative contribution to soil and water conservation;the wateryield under the RCP 8.5 scenario was higher than RCP 4.5 scenario;but in the long term,the climatic conditions of RCP 4.5 is superior to RCP 8.5 in reducing surface runoff and actual evapotranspiration,and increasing groundwater runoff,interflow and water yield;(3)land use and climate change had the greater impact on the surface runoff,which was more significant in the middle and lower reaches than that in the upper reaches in this basin.
引文
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[11]孙一萌,陈喜,黄日超,等.气候及土地利用变化对嘉陵江流域实际蒸散发量的影响[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(12):33-36,73.
[12] Duffie J A,Beckman W A.Solar engineering of thermal processes[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons,1980.
[13]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[14]王学,张祖陆,宁吉才.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用变化的径流响应[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(1):186-194.
[15]王根绪,张钰,刘桂民,等.马营河流域1967—2000年土地利用变化对河流径流的影响[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2005,35(7):671-681.
[16]罗君,白永平.嘉陵江流域经济空间分异研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(4):364-369.
[2] Arnold J,Srinivasan R,Muttiah R S,et al.Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment partⅠ:Model development[J].Journal of American Water Resources Association,1998,34(1):73-89.
[3] Sun X,Bernard-Jannin L,Garneau C,et al.Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model[J].Hydrological Processes,2016,30(2):187-202.
[4] Krysanova V,Srinivasan R.Assessment of climate and land use change impacts with SWAT[J].Regional Environmental Change,2015,15(3):431-434.
[5]王莺,张雷,王劲松.洮河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文过程响应[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(1):200-210.
[6]曾小凡,叶磊,翟建青,等.嘉陵江流域极端降水变化及其对水文过程影响的初步研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(S):159-164.
[7]齐师杰,张兴南,夏达忠,等.嘉陵江流域土地利用/覆被变化特征及其驱动力分析[J].长江科学院院报,2013,30(1):1-7.
[8]向田恬,陈华,郭家力,等.气候变化对嘉陵江流域降水变化影响分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(1):75-77,91.
[9]胡云华,冯精金,王铭烽,等.气候及下垫面变化对嘉陵江流域径流与输沙的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2016,14(4):75-83.
[10]杜华明,延军平,杨登兴,等.嘉陵江流域降水变化及旱涝多时间尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):836-845.
[11]孙一萌,陈喜,黄日超,等.气候及土地利用变化对嘉陵江流域实际蒸散发量的影响[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(12):33-36,73.
[12] Duffie J A,Beckman W A.Solar engineering of thermal processes[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons,1980.
[13]沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[14]王学,张祖陆,宁吉才.基于SWAT模型的白马河流域土地利用变化的径流响应[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(1):186-194.
[15]王根绪,张钰,刘桂民,等.马营河流域1967—2000年土地利用变化对河流径流的影响[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2005,35(7):671-681.
[16]罗君,白永平.嘉陵江流域经济空间分异研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(4):364-369.
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