公路水毁经济损失估算方法研究——以重庆市永川区公路水毁为例
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摘要
受降雨时空分布不均和极端降雨频发等因素影响,公路水毁具有分散性、随机性和灾情差异性,对交通部门产生的经济损失也存在较大变化,如何快速有效估算公路水毁损失具有现实意义。根据研究区公路水毁特征概化出四种主要受灾类型,包括路堑边坡垮塌-积水淹没型、路堤穿堤构筑物淤塞-漫流型、弯道附属设施冲失型和行道植株断道型,直接经济损失主要由四种水毁类型对公路结构的损伤和破坏形成;考虑时间价值效应,将间接经济损失简化为增加的营运成本和旅客时间耗费损失;通过整合直接和间接经济损失,构建了公路水毁损失估算模型。以重庆市永川区S417永铜路水毁灾害为例,应用估算模型得出了经济损失,验证了估算方法具有一定的合理性,结果表明:(1)路堑边坡垮塌-积水淹没型和路堤穿堤构筑物淤塞-漫流型是形成研究区公路直接经济损失的主要部分,在快速估算经济损失时,可基于以上两种受灾类型统计结果,乘以扩大系数,得出直接经济损失;(2)间接经济损失属于隐性损失,但是体量远大于直接经济损失,对国民经济造成的影响不容忽视;(3)建立的估算新方法,可快速评估经济损失,保证灾情发布的时效性;(4)可进一步研究基于风险分析的主动经济投入预控措施,联合保险公司、公路养护部门等研讨公路水毁保险机制与养护维修方案,建立公路水毁重大灾情应急抢险工作机制,响应国家应急管理部工作部署,形成双赢、多赢新局面。研究成果可供公路养护维修、应急抢通工程科学编制预算参考。
Affected by factors such as the uneven space-time distribution of rainfall and extreme precipitation frequency,it is disperse,random and various in the degree of damage for the road flood damage,while it has significant changes to economic loss for the transport agency. Four main disaster types which consist of direct economic loss have been put forward according to the characteristics of road flood damage in the research region,including the cutting slope collapse induced inundation type,the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type,the washout of highway curves ancillary facility type and fallen roadside tree induced traffic block type. Consider the value of time effect,the indirect economic loss model is simplified as increased operating cost losses and the waste of passenger time. The economic loss model of roadway flood damage is established by combining the direct economic loss and indirect economic loss together. Put S417 Yongtong road in Yongchuan district Chongqing municipality as an example,the economic loss is obtained according to the estimation model and the result indicate:( 1) The cutting slope collapse induced inundation type and the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type are the main part of direct economic loss in the research region,and the total direct economic loss can be estimated by the sum of the two.( 2) the indirect economic loss belongs to recessive loss,but the quantity of which is much larger than the direct economic loss and can not be ignored in the whole national economy.( 3) The new estimation method is useful to make a rapid estimation to the economic loss in order to ensure the timeliness of disaster information issues.( 4) It is suggested that the proactive economic input control measures based on risk analyses should be further studied,by discussing the insurance mechanism of road water damage and maintenance scheme between insurance company and highway maintenance company,setting up a work mechanism of major disaster emergency rescue for road flood damage in order to answer Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China so as to form a new win-win,and multi-win situation. The research achievement can provide a reference to the economic loss estimation as well as to draw up a budget for road maintenance and emergency rescue engineering.
Affected by factors such as the uneven space-time distribution of rainfall and extreme precipitation frequency,it is disperse,random and various in the degree of damage for the road flood damage,while it has significant changes to economic loss for the transport agency. Four main disaster types which consist of direct economic loss have been put forward according to the characteristics of road flood damage in the research region,including the cutting slope collapse induced inundation type,the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type,the washout of highway curves ancillary facility type and fallen roadside tree induced traffic block type. Consider the value of time effect,the indirect economic loss model is simplified as increased operating cost losses and the waste of passenger time. The economic loss model of roadway flood damage is established by combining the direct economic loss and indirect economic loss together. Put S417 Yongtong road in Yongchuan district Chongqing municipality as an example,the economic loss is obtained according to the estimation model and the result indicate:( 1) The cutting slope collapse induced inundation type and the clogging of embankment culvert induced sheetflood type are the main part of direct economic loss in the research region,and the total direct economic loss can be estimated by the sum of the two.( 2) the indirect economic loss belongs to recessive loss,but the quantity of which is much larger than the direct economic loss and can not be ignored in the whole national economy.( 3) The new estimation method is useful to make a rapid estimation to the economic loss in order to ensure the timeliness of disaster information issues.( 4) It is suggested that the proactive economic input control measures based on risk analyses should be further studied,by discussing the insurance mechanism of road water damage and maintenance scheme between insurance company and highway maintenance company,setting up a work mechanism of major disaster emergency rescue for road flood damage in order to answer Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China so as to form a new win-win,and multi-win situation. The research achievement can provide a reference to the economic loss estimation as well as to draw up a budget for road maintenance and emergency rescue engineering.
引文
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[13]史安娜. BP神经网络在社会经济非线性时间序列预测中的应用[J].水利经济,2000(6):19-21.
[14]刘希林,赵源.地貌灾害间接经济损失评估——以泥石流灾害为例[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):7-12.
[15]冯平,崔广涛,钟昀.城市洪涝灾害直接经济损失的评估与预测[J].水利学报,2001(8):64-68.
[16]赵源,刘希林.泥石流灾害损失评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(3):42-47,53.
[17]崔伯恩,凌建明,赵鸿铎,等.公路水毁毁损等级划分体系研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(9):1180-1184.
[18]郑志明,刘东燕,侯龙.重庆地区干线公路水毁机理及防治对策研究[J].工业建筑,2012,42(S1):590-593,653.
[19]陈洪凯,唐红梅,白子培.山区公路水毁路基发育机制研究——以四川境内公路水毁路基为例[J].重庆交通学院学报,1994,13(4):34-40.
[20]陈洪凯,周福川,唐红梅.沿河公路平行悬空混凝土路面板断裂力学模型[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(3):25-34.
[21]赵欢,尹超,张启龙.公路小桥涵水毁综合稳定性评价方法[J].公路,2015(9):4-9.
[22]赵琛,唐凝,曹鸿.基于遥感与GIS技术的公路损毁监测评估系统设计[J].实验室研究与探索,2017,36(4):45-48.
[23] YOUSSEF M A,PRADHAN B,HASSAN A M. Flash Flood Risk Estimation Along the St. Katherine Road,Southern Sinai,Egypt Using GIS Based Morphometry and Satellite Imagery[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2011,62(3):611-623.
[2]刘春腊,马丽,刘卫东.洪水灾害社会经济损失评估方法研究述评[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):136-141.
[3]魏本勇,苏桂武.基于投入产出分析的汶川地震灾害间接经济损失评估[J]地震地质,2016,38(4):1082-1094.
[4]李宁,张正涛,陈曦,冯介玲.论自然灾害经济损失评估研究的重要性[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(2):256-263.
[5] WANG Guizhi,CHEN Rongrong,CHEN Jibo. Direct and indirect economic loss assessment of typhoon disasters based on EC and IO joint model. Natural Hazards,2017,87(3):1751–1764.
[6] LI Ning,ZHANG Zhengtao,CHEN Xi,etc. Importance of economic loss evaluation in natural hazard and disaster research[J].2017,36(2):256-263.
[7] E E Koks,M Bocˇkarjova,H. de Moel. Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling:Development and Sensitivity Analysis[J]. Risk Analysis,2015,35(5):882-900.
[8]刑冀,谢贤平.安全投入与事故直接经济损失的问题研究[J].工业安全与环保,2007,33(8):54-56.
[9]万良君,曾再平,王改利.城市洪涝灾害的损失评估研究与防灾减损对策[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2003(4):34-43.
[10]武靖源,韩文秀,徐杨.洪灾经济损失评估模型研究——(I)直接经济损失评估[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(11):53-56.
[11]王宝华,付强,谢永刚,等.国内外洪水灾害经济损失评估方法综述[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):95-99.
[12]黄涛珍,王晓东. BP神经网络在洪涝灾损失快速评估中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(4):457-460.
[13]史安娜. BP神经网络在社会经济非线性时间序列预测中的应用[J].水利经济,2000(6):19-21.
[14]刘希林,赵源.地貌灾害间接经济损失评估——以泥石流灾害为例[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):7-12.
[15]冯平,崔广涛,钟昀.城市洪涝灾害直接经济损失的评估与预测[J].水利学报,2001(8):64-68.
[16]赵源,刘希林.泥石流灾害损失评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(3):42-47,53.
[17]崔伯恩,凌建明,赵鸿铎,等.公路水毁毁损等级划分体系研究[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(9):1180-1184.
[18]郑志明,刘东燕,侯龙.重庆地区干线公路水毁机理及防治对策研究[J].工业建筑,2012,42(S1):590-593,653.
[19]陈洪凯,唐红梅,白子培.山区公路水毁路基发育机制研究——以四川境内公路水毁路基为例[J].重庆交通学院学报,1994,13(4):34-40.
[20]陈洪凯,周福川,唐红梅.沿河公路平行悬空混凝土路面板断裂力学模型[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(3):25-34.
[21]赵欢,尹超,张启龙.公路小桥涵水毁综合稳定性评价方法[J].公路,2015(9):4-9.
[22]赵琛,唐凝,曹鸿.基于遥感与GIS技术的公路损毁监测评估系统设计[J].实验室研究与探索,2017,36(4):45-48.
[23] YOUSSEF M A,PRADHAN B,HASSAN A M. Flash Flood Risk Estimation Along the St. Katherine Road,Southern Sinai,Egypt Using GIS Based Morphometry and Satellite Imagery[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences,2011,62(3):611-623.
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