基于模糊事故树的煤尘爆炸事故分析

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英文篇名：Analysis on Coal Dust Explosion Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree 作者：陈慧慧 ; 施书磊 ; 郑明亮 英文作者：CHEN Hui-hui;SHI Shu-lei;ZHENG Ming-liang;College of Energy and Safety Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology; 关键词：煤尘爆炸 ; 模糊事故树 ; 梯形模糊数 ; 模糊概率 英文关键词：coal dust explosion;;FFTA;;trapezoidal fuzzy numbers;;fuzzy probability 中文刊名：MTJS 英文刊名：Coal Technology 机构：安徽理工大学能源与安全学院; 出版日期：2018-08-10 出版单位：煤炭技术 年：2018 期：v.37;No.296 基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51504008);; 安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(1608085QE115);; 安徽高校自然科学研究资助项目(KJ2015A068);; 中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2015M571913);; 安徽理工大学引进人才科研启动基金资助项目(ZY530) 语种：中文; 页：MTJS201808069 页数：3 CN：08 ISSN：23-1393/TD 分类号：186-188

摘要

以陕西某煤矿为例,通过辨识影响陕西某煤矿煤尘爆炸的危险因素,构建了基于模糊事故树的煤尘爆炸评价模型,评价了该煤矿煤尘爆炸危险性。首先通过专家打分得到各基本事件的模糊概率,然后用梯形模糊数来表示各不定事件发生的概率,最后计算各基本事件的重要性并对其进行排序,分析得出发生概率较高的基本事件,以此来确定合理的防爆措施。该方法对煤尘爆炸事故分析具有直接的指导意义,可以在一定程度上提高煤矿的安全性。
        Take a coal mine in Shaanxi Province as an example, building the coal dust explosion evaluation model based on fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA) by identifying the risk factors that affected the coal dust explosion, and then evaluated the hazard of coal dust explosion. First of all, the fuzzy probability of each basic event(BE) is obtained by expert scoring. Then the occurrence probability of each indefinite event is expressed by trapezoidal fuzzy number. Finally, calculating and sorting the importance of each BE, and the BE with high probability is obtained, in order to determine a reasonable explosion-proof measures. This method has direct guiding significance for the analysis of coal dust explosion accident and can improve the safety of coal mine to some extent.

引文

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