农业劳动力老龄化与中国粮食生产——基于劳动增强型生产函数分析
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摘要
针对目前中国粮食生产结构与实际需求不匹配,本文将农业劳动力数量和老龄化率引入劳动增强型生产函数(C-D函数),分析农业劳动力老龄化对玉米、小麦和稻谷三大粮食作物产量的影响。研究发现,中国粮食生产存在明显的"内卷化",这阻碍了粮食增产。农业劳动力老龄化可以在一定程度上减少粮食生产劳动投入,推动粮食生产规模化与机械化,通过提高单产与种植面积促进粮食增产。此外,中国粮食增产尚处于依赖要素和资本投入阶段;从长远来看,在劳动力知识水平未显著提高的情况下,这种增长模式是不可持续的。因此,可以通过提高农业劳动力人力资本、发展农业新型经营主体实现适度规模经营,加速机械、技术等现代要素的引入,促进我国粮食生产。
This article employs the labor-augmenting production function( C-D) with specifying the amount of labor and the aging rate to analyze the influence of the agriculture labor aging on the production of maize,wheat,and rice in China.The results suggest that the obvious "Involution"of China grain production hinders the increasing of grain yield.The aging of agricultural labor force can reduce the labor input and promote the scale and mechanization of grain production,and to promote grain production by increasing yield and planting area. Meanwhile,China's grain production is still dependent on input and capital investment. It's not sustainable without improving the knowledge of agriculture labor in the long run.All findings suggest that improving human capital of agricultural labor force,fostering new agricultural entities for realizing the moderate scale management could help the increasing of grain production.
This article employs the labor-augmenting production function( C-D) with specifying the amount of labor and the aging rate to analyze the influence of the agriculture labor aging on the production of maize,wheat,and rice in China.The results suggest that the obvious "Involution"of China grain production hinders the increasing of grain yield.The aging of agricultural labor force can reduce the labor input and promote the scale and mechanization of grain production,and to promote grain production by increasing yield and planting area. Meanwhile,China's grain production is still dependent on input and capital investment. It's not sustainable without improving the knowledge of agriculture labor in the long run.All findings suggest that improving human capital of agricultural labor force,fostering new agricultural entities for realizing the moderate scale management could help the increasing of grain production.
引文
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17.王跃梅,姚先国,周明海.农村劳动力外流、区域差异与粮食生产.管理世界,2013(11):67~76
18.李谷成,范丽霞,冯中朝.资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长---对1978~2011年中国农业增长与资本存量的实证估计.管理世界,2014(5):67~79
19.王光宇,孔令聪,胡永年.安徽省小麦生产投入产出及资源合理配置研究.农业经济问题,2008(3):55~60
20.马铃,万广华.为什么贫困农户种植业收入低下.农业技术经济,2012(5):4-13
21.聂英,夏英.东北地区粮食产能变化及影响因素.经济纵横,2016(4):70~76
(1)源自《2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》
(2)作者根据相应年份《中国统计年鉴》数据计算得来
(1)陈强.高级计量经济学及应用.高等教育出版社,2010
2.Justin Yifu Lin.Prohibition of factor market exchanges and technological choice in Chinese agriculture.The Journal of Development Studies,1990,Vol.4:1~15
3.Tauer L.Age and Farmer Productivity.Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,1995,Vol.1:63~69
4.Sun L,Chang J,Liu Y,et al.The urban-rural disparities of the elderly labor supply and income in China.Procedia Engineering,2011,Vol.1:5274~5278
5.Choi K H,Shin S.Population aging,economic growth,and the social transmission of human capital:An analysis with an overlapping generations model.Economic Modelling,2015,Vol.2:138~147
6.Deininger K,Jin S.The potential of land rental markets in the process of economic development:Evidence from China.Journal of Development Economics,2005,Vol.1:241~270
7.Barro R J,Lee J.International data on educational attainment:updates and implications.Oxford Economic Papers,2000,Vol.3:541~563
8.钟甫宁.正确认识粮食安全和农业劳动力成本问题.农业经济问题,2016(1):4~9
9.蔡昉,张车伟.劳动经济学.中国社会科学出版社,2015
10.周祝平,刘海斌.人口老龄化对劳动力参与率的影响.人口研究,2016(3):58~70
11.蔡昉,王美艳.从穷人经济到规模经济---发展阶段变化对中国农业提出的挑战.经济研究,2016(5):14~26
12.何小勤.农业劳动力老龄化研究---基于浙江省农村的调查.人口与经济,2013(2):69~77
13.杨志武,钟甫宁.农户种植决策中的外部性研究.农业技术经济,2010(1):27~33
14.彭代彦,吴翔.中国农业技术效率与全要素生产率研究---基于农村劳动力结构变化的视角.经济学家,2013(9):68~76
15.盖庆恩,朱喜,史清华.劳动力转移对中国农业生产的影响.经济学(季刊),2014(3):147~170
16.钟甫宁.农业经济学.中国农业出版社,2011
17.王跃梅,姚先国,周明海.农村劳动力外流、区域差异与粮食生产.管理世界,2013(11):67~76
18.李谷成,范丽霞,冯中朝.资本积累、制度变迁与农业增长---对1978~2011年中国农业增长与资本存量的实证估计.管理世界,2014(5):67~79
19.王光宇,孔令聪,胡永年.安徽省小麦生产投入产出及资源合理配置研究.农业经济问题,2008(3):55~60
20.马铃,万广华.为什么贫困农户种植业收入低下.农业技术经济,2012(5):4-13
21.聂英,夏英.东北地区粮食产能变化及影响因素.经济纵横,2016(4):70~76
(1)源自《2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》
(2)作者根据相应年份《中国统计年鉴》数据计算得来
(1)陈强.高级计量经济学及应用.高等教育出版社,2010
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