工厂化集中育秧模式下荆州市双季早稻低温冷害风险分析
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摘要
利用荆州市6个国家气象站1981-2014年早稻生育期和日平均气温观测资料,统计传统露地育秧(TS)情况下早稻的生育期和积温,设定比传统方式提前10d播种于温室集中育秧(CS-10)和提前20d播种于温室集中育秧(CS-20)两种育秧模式,推算出相应的生育期,利用日平均气温观测资料和weibull分布模型,统计分析当地采用这两种育秧模式时早稻关键生育期冷积温(指早稻某生育期内冷害临界温度指标与日平均气温差值的累积值)变化及概率密度分布,比较分析3种育秧模式下早稻遭遇低温冷害的风险。结果表明,相较于TS模式,提前10d集中育秧时,移栽-分蘖始期、幼穗分化始期、抽穗开花始期、灌浆结实始期和收获始期分别提前14d、10d、8d、11d和7d;提前20d集中育秧时,各生育期则分别提前24d、15d、11d、17d、10d。其中,轻度冷害发生概率在发育前期(移栽-分蘖期、幼穗分化期)逐渐下降,发育后期(抽穗开花期、灌浆结实期)逐渐增加,而中度以上冷害的发生概率在发育前期增幅较大,其中提前10d集中育秧时,移栽-分蘖期和孕穗分化期的冷害概率分别为14.7%、49.7%;提前20d集中育秧时,冷害概率分别可达57.1%、71.7%,是传统育秧模式的数倍。因此,为降低冷害风险、保障早稻稳产,荆州市早稻集中育秧模式的适宜播种期应不早于3月25日,即比传统育秧模式提前7d左右。
According to investigations of early rice seedling modes in Jingzhou, chilling injury was usually occurred, and initiated by yield reduction. Based on the average daily temperature observations of 6 national meteorological stations, and development period observations between 1981 and 2014, the average effective accumulated temperature of each stage was counted under the traditional seedling mode(TS). Furthermore, two kinds of centralized greenhouse seedling modes, which were 10 days(CS-10) or 20 days(CS-20) earlier than TS, were set to analyze the change rules of chilling accumulative temperature(accumulated value of the difference between critical temperature of chilling injury and average daily temperature in each stage) and the chilling injury characteristics of weibull probability density distribution. The results indicated that, compared with TS mode, advanced with seedling date, the beginning date of transplanting-tillering stage, panicle differentiation, flowering, grain filling and maturation stage were respectively 14 d, 10 d, 8d, 11 d and 7d earlier in CS-10 mode, and 24 d, 15 d, 11 d, 17 d, 10 d earlier in CS-20 mode. In addition, in the early stage(transplanting-tillering stage and panicle differentiation stage), the probability of mild chilling injury(010℃·d) was increased rapidly in the transplanting-tillering stage and panicle differentiation stage, which were separately reached 14.7%, 49.7% in the CS-10 mode, and 57.1%, 71.7% in the CS-20 mode. For reducing the risk of chilling injury, the suitable sowing date of centralized seedling mode in Jingzhou should be later than March 25 th, which was 7 days earlier than TS mode.
According to investigations of early rice seedling modes in Jingzhou, chilling injury was usually occurred, and initiated by yield reduction. Based on the average daily temperature observations of 6 national meteorological stations, and development period observations between 1981 and 2014, the average effective accumulated temperature of each stage was counted under the traditional seedling mode(TS). Furthermore, two kinds of centralized greenhouse seedling modes, which were 10 days(CS-10) or 20 days(CS-20) earlier than TS, were set to analyze the change rules of chilling accumulative temperature(accumulated value of the difference between critical temperature of chilling injury and average daily temperature in each stage) and the chilling injury characteristics of weibull probability density distribution. The results indicated that, compared with TS mode, advanced with seedling date, the beginning date of transplanting-tillering stage, panicle differentiation, flowering, grain filling and maturation stage were respectively 14 d, 10 d, 8d, 11 d and 7d earlier in CS-10 mode, and 24 d, 15 d, 11 d, 17 d, 10 d earlier in CS-20 mode. In addition, in the early stage(transplanting-tillering stage and panicle differentiation stage), the probability of mild chilling injury(0
引文
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[15]马绍东,李哲东.水稻天气指数保险定价研究:以贵阳市水稻低温冷害天气指数为例[J].农村经济与科技,2016,27(3):1-4.Ma S D,Li Z D.Rice weather index insurance pricing:a case study on rice weather index insurance of chilling injury in Guiyang city[J].Rural Economy and Science,2016,27(3):1-4.(in Chinese)
[16]孙擎,杨再强,殷剑敏,等.江西早稻高温逼熟气象灾害指数保险费率的厘定[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(5):561-566.Sun Q,Yang Z Q,Yin J M,et al.Estimation of premium rates of high temperature disaster for early rice in Jiangxi[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(5):561-566.(in Chinese)
[17]马树庆,袭祝香,马力文,等.北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较[J].气象,2015,41(6):778-785.Ma S Q,Xi Z X,Ma L W,et al.Test and comparison of sustainable suitability of meteorological indicators for rice cold damages in the north of China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):778-785.(in Chinese)
[18]曲辉辉,姜丽霞,王冬冬.气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):769-777.Qu H H,Jiang L X,Wang D D.Influence of climate change on sterile-type cooling injury in rice in Heilongjiang Province,China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(3):769-777.(in Chinese)
[19]姚蓬娟,王春乙,张继权.长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害危险性评价[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(5):503-514.Yao P J,Wang C Y,Zhang J Q.Hazard assessment of cold and hot damage for double-season early rice(DSER)in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin[J].Advances in Earth Science,2016,31(5):503-514.(in Chinese)
[2]邱在辉,孔萍,余传元,等.江西省冷害发生规律研究及水稻种植制度分析[J].中国稻米,2016,22(5):20-26.Qiu Z H,Kong P,Yu C Y,et al.Study on the occurrence regularity of cold stress and rice cropping system in Jiangxi province[J].China Rice,2016,22(5):20-26.(in Chinese)
[3]王品,魏星,张朝,等.气候变暖背景下水稻低温冷害和高温热害的研究进展[J].资源科学,2014,36(11):2316-2326.Wang P,Wei X,Zhang C,et al.A review of cold injury and heat damage to rice growth under global warming resources science[J].Resources Science,2014,36(11):2316-2326.(in Chinese)
[4]邓化冰,车芳璐,肖应辉,等.开花期低温胁迫对水稻花粉性状及剑叶理化特性的影响[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(1):66-72.Deng H B,Che F L,Xiao Y H,et al.Effects of low temperature stress during flowering period on pollen characters and flag leaf physiological and biochemical characteristics of rice[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(1):66-72.(in Chinese)
[5]白光志,刘寿东,余焰文,等.花期低温对晚稻干物质积累及分配的影响[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(2):206-212.Bai G Z,Liu S D,Yu Y W,et al.Effect of low temperature at flowering stage on late rice dry matter accumulation and distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(2):206-212.(in Chinese)
[6]田小海,周恒多,张宇飞,等.两湖平原罕见早稻结实障碍调查[J].湖北农业科学,2009,48(11):2657-2659.Tian X H,Zhou H D,Zhang Y F,et al.Field survey to an exceptionally serious mal-seeding disaster in early rice at Jianghan plain and Dongting lake plain areas[J].Hubei Agricultural Science,2009,48(11):2657-2659.(in Chinese)
[7]汪孝清,柯耀文.江汉平原四湖地区低温阴雨天气对早稻产量的影响[J].湖北气象,2000,(2):34-36.Wang X Q,Ke Y W.Effect of low temperature and rainy weather on early rice yield in Jianghan plain[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2000,(2):34-36.(in Chinese)
[8]陆魁东,黄晚华,叶殿秀,等.GB/T 27959-2011南方水稻、油菜和柑橘低温灾害[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012.Lu K D,Huang W H,Ye D X,et al.GB/T 27959-2011 Low temperature disaster of southern rice,rapeseed and orange[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2012.(in Chinese)
[9]霍治国,马树庆,柏秦凤,等.QX/T 101-2009水稻、玉米冷害等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2009.Huo Z G,Ma S Q,Bai Q F,et al.QX/T 101-2009 Grade of chilling damage for rice and maize[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2009.(in Chinese)
[10]程德瑜.论危害作物的高温和低温指标:危害积温[J].中国农业气象,1984,5(3):59-61.Cheng D Y.The harm of high temperature and low temperature disaster:accumulated temperature of hazard[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,1984,5(3):59-61.(in Chinese)
[11]王春乙,姚蓬娟,张继权,等.长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害综合风险评价[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(13):2469-2483.Wang C Y,Yao P J,Zhang J Q,et al.Risk assessment of cold and hot damages for double-cropping early rice(DCER)in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016,49(13):2469-2483.(in Chinese)
[12]郭建平,马树庆.农作物低温冷害监测预测理论和实践[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:12.Guo J P,Ma S Q.The theory and practice of crop chilling injury monitoring and prediction[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2009:12.(in Chinese)
[13]毛留喜,魏丽.大宗作物气象服务手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2015:11.Mao L X,Wei L.Handbook of meteorological service for staple crops[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2015:11.(in Chinese)
[14]周先竹,胡正梅,廖世勇,等.水稻集中育秧的技术选择:以江汉平原早稻集中育秧为例[J].湖北农业科学,2013,52(14):3241-3242.Zhou X Z,Hu Z M,Liao S Y,et al.Technology of centralized seedling raising of rice:taking the centralized seedling raising of early rice in Jianghan plain for example[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2013,52(14):3241-3242.(in Chinese)
[15]马绍东,李哲东.水稻天气指数保险定价研究:以贵阳市水稻低温冷害天气指数为例[J].农村经济与科技,2016,27(3):1-4.Ma S D,Li Z D.Rice weather index insurance pricing:a case study on rice weather index insurance of chilling injury in Guiyang city[J].Rural Economy and Science,2016,27(3):1-4.(in Chinese)
[16]孙擎,杨再强,殷剑敏,等.江西早稻高温逼熟气象灾害指数保险费率的厘定[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(5):561-566.Sun Q,Yang Z Q,Yin J M,et al.Estimation of premium rates of high temperature disaster for early rice in Jiangxi[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(5):561-566.(in Chinese)
[17]马树庆,袭祝香,马力文,等.北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较[J].气象,2015,41(6):778-785.Ma S Q,Xi Z X,Ma L W,et al.Test and comparison of sustainable suitability of meteorological indicators for rice cold damages in the north of China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):778-785.(in Chinese)
[18]曲辉辉,姜丽霞,王冬冬.气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):769-777.Qu H H,Jiang L X,Wang D D.Influence of climate change on sterile-type cooling injury in rice in Heilongjiang Province,China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(3):769-777.(in Chinese)
[19]姚蓬娟,王春乙,张继权.长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害危险性评价[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(5):503-514.Yao P J,Wang C Y,Zhang J Q.Hazard assessment of cold and hot damage for double-season early rice(DSER)in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin[J].Advances in Earth Science,2016,31(5):503-514.(in Chinese)
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