A Cusp Catastrophe Model of Kid-Long-Term Landslide Evolution over Low Latitude Highlands of China

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• 作者：Yun TaoJie CaoJinming HuZhicheng Dai
• 会议时间：2014-11-03
• 关键词：Landslide ; Catastrophe theory ; Cusp catastrophe model ; Mid-long-term evolution ; Low latitude highlands
• 作者单位：Yun Tao(Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China ;Meteorological Institute of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650034, China)Jie Cao,Zhicheng Dai(Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China)Jinming Hu(Asian International Rivers Center, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China)
• 会议名称：第31届中国气象学会年会
• 会议地点：北京
• 主办单位：中国气象学会
• 语种：chi

摘要

Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution.According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution over a low latitude highland area in China was retrieved with the least squares method.Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity.Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls it when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs.During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995 and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996, Since then, landslides in the low latitude highland region have frequently occurred, with greater intensity.All this gives a scientific basis for formulating a preliminary proposal regarding landslide disasters.