To what extent can interannual CO2 variability constrain carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change in CMIP5 Earth System Models?

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• 作者：Jun WangNing ZengYimin LiuQing Bao
• 会议时间：2014-10-01
• 关键词：carbon-climate feedback ; interannual CO2 variability ; Earth System Models ; CMIP5
• 作者单位：Jun Wang(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Beijing,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China)Ning Zeng(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park,Maryland,USA)Yimin Liu,Qing Bao(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Beijing,China)
• 母体文献：第一届中国大地测量和地球物理学学术大会论文集
• 会议名称：第一届中国大地测量和地球物理学学术大会
• 会议地点：北京
• 主办单位：中国测绘学会
• 语种：chi

摘要

We analyze the carbon–climate feedback in eight Earth System Models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).We focus on tropical land carbon change and find decreases (-31.02 to -169.32 GtC K-1),indicating tropical ecosystems will release carbon as temperature warms,thus contributing to a positive feedback identified in earlier studies.We further investigate the relationship between tropical land carbon change and sensitivity of historical atmospheric CO2 growth rate to tropical temperature variability,and find a weak linear relationship.This sensitivity for most models is stronger than observed.We further use this "emergent constraint" [Cox et al.,2013] to constrain uncertainties in model-projected future carbon–climate changes,and find little effect in narrowing the model-spread,but the mean sensitivity is slightly smaller.This contrasts with earlier C4MIP results,highlighting the challenge in constraining future projections by modern observations and necessity for evaluating such relationships continuously.