Exploring the future with complexity science: The emerging models

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Robert H. Samet ; ^a ; ^{r.h.b.samet@btinternet.com"" rel=""nofollow}
• 刊名：Futures
• 出版年：2011
• 出版时间：October 2011
• 年：2011
• 卷：43
• 期：8
• 页码：831-839
• 全文大小：147 K

文摘

The ‘futures field’ can be divided into five major segments or futurist schools, together with their complementary but differing research methodologies and time horizons. These are generally subsumed under the terms ‘futures research’, ‘futures studies’ and ‘foresight’. Complexity science applications are outlined for each of the schools, and these provide evolving theories for futures thinking. (1) Environmental and geosciences treat the Earth and its various components as typical out-of-equilibrium systems with dissipative processes. (2) Infrastructure and socio-technological systems emerge through the diffusion of investment capital, with the endogenous transformation of the urban system. (3) Social, political and economic sciences are being reshaped away from the notion of economic equilibrium, and describe social emergence by means of agent-based models. (4) Human life, mind and information sciences are evolving with the development of complexity models in neuroscience, immune systems, epidemic modelling, social media technologies and artificial intelligence. (5) Business and management science involves examining the viability of successfully undertaking transactions in a complex adaptive system, in which the systemic structure evolves over time. Geographical information systems are integrated with agent-based modelling for corporate foresight.