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Imminent Prediction for Minxian Earthquake (MS6.6) Using Fingerprint Method
详细信息   
摘要
At 7:45 of July 22,2013,an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City(34.5°N,104.2°E),Gansu Province with magnitude of MS6.6.The depth of the focus is 20km.In this disaster,95people died,1366people were injured,and the total economic loss reaches 21billion Yuan RMB.We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method created by the first author.We also discuss the triggering structure and the seismic mechanism of the earthquake.Nine channels or 15channels of anomalous components-time curves can be output from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors(or simply SW monitor for short).These components include geomagnetic,geoelectric,crust stresses,resonance,and crust inclination components.When we compress the time axis,the output curves become different geometric images.The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions.The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region.In this way,we can predict the location for a coming earthquake using the precursor images.This can be analogous to a person’s definite fingerprint.We can find a person with a fingerprint.Therefore,the method predicting earthquake by using the precursor images is called fingerprint method.According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquakes,we usually get the fingerprint 6days before the corresponding earthquake.The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerprints from the same channel.In this way,the fingerprint works a miracle that we can predict the three key elements of earthquake using single station data.At 10:45of July 15,2013,the first author predicted that there would be an earthquake occurring on July 19,2013,in Gansu(35.19°N,103.69°E)with the magnitude of MS5.1on the basis of the comparison between the fingerprints from the channel 5on July 14,and on June2,2013.The Minxian MS6.6earthquake occurred on July 22,2013indicates that the predicted epicenter is accurate,that the earthquake occurring time is delayed only 3days,and that the magnitude is larger than the predicted magnitude by MS1.5.In general,it is a successful imminent prediction.From the comprehensive analysis of the tectonic setting,the crust P wave velocity structures and the focus mechanism of the Minxianearthquake,we consider that the Lintan-Lixian left-lateral thrusting is its triggering and that the joint location of the edge of the low-velocity(high-conductivity)layer and the Lintan-Lixian fractures is the location for the focus to release the accumulated energy.This provides a new case of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquake.

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