• 责任者：Li Feng (Institute of Geology ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100029 ; China) ; Zhang Xiaoliang
• 刊名：Seismology and Geology
• 出版年：2013
• 卷期：35(3)
• 关键词：地震危险性 ; seismic risk ; 重庆 ; Chongqing
• 页码：p.518-531
• 图表：5 illus., 3 tables, 42 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN0253-4967
• isbnNo：CN11-2192/P

     The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is forecasted in this paper by synthetical analysis of tectonic structure, seismicity,stress and strain fields,based on data of the Chongqing urban active faults surveying. The maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake in the target area is 5.5 ≤ Ms ≤ 6.0. We try to use the spatially smoothed seismicity method in weakly active area. Two seismic hazard models in weakly active area based on spatially smoothed seismicity method are proposed using strong seismic catalog and small seismic catalog. The completeness of these two catalogs is analyzed based on EMR （Entire Magnitude Range）method. And the seismic hazard（probability）in the target area is calculated using Poisson model. The results show that the seismic probability value for a single fault is relatively low and the possibility of destructive earthquake of magnitude above 5.5 in the target area is small. There are still some uncertainty and reliability for the results because of the hypnosis of the spatially smoothed seismicity model. However it should be noticed that the technique of seismic hazard calculation described in this paper based on spatially smoothed seismicity method is a new try and has potential application for the weakly active area such as Chongqing.