Forecasting Simulation for the Discharge of Epikarst Spring on the Basis of Multiple Linear Regression

详细信息   

• 责任者：Yan Xiaolong (State Key Lab. of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering ; Hohai University ; Nanjing 210098 ; China) ; Chen Xi
• 刊名：Carsologica Sinica
• 出版年：2012
• 卷期：31(2)
• 关键词：岩溶泉 ; karst springs ; 贵州 ; Guizhou Province
• 页码：p.154-159
• 图表：illus., 13 refs.
• 分类号：1701
• issnNo：ISSN1001-4810
• isbnNo：CN45-1157/P

摘要

In light of the spring discharge and the precipitation date in Chenqi drainage area in Puding County, Anshun City, Guizhou Province, the auto-correlation and partial auto-correlation of the epikarst spring discharge as well as cross-correlation of the discharge-precipitation series are analyzed. And then, the lag time of the discharge series and the precipitation-discharge lag time are determined, and the multiple linear regression model established. The results demonstrate that along with the increase of the prediction period, the prediction error of the spring discharge in subsiding phase increases. The model established in this paper is feasible for simulating the spring discharge in 10 hours, and the average value of the relative errors of the calculated discharge in subsiding phase after 6 rainfalls is less than 5%.