从供给侧探寻我国就业变化成因
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摘要
在坚定不移推进供给侧结构性改革的背景下,从供给侧探寻我国就业人数变化的影响因素具有重要的现实意义。本文从供给侧出发,利用投入产出Ghosh模型和结构分解分析方法,将各部门就业变化定量分解为技术发展因素、经济总量增长因素和经济结构变化因素,其中经济结构变化包括分配结构调整和增加值结构变化。结果表明,经济总量增长与就业密切相关,对各部门就业增长有着重要的积极作用,经济增速的放缓将对就业造成不小的压力。技术进步使得劳动生产率得以提高,加大了各部门的失业风险,与此同时,技术进步和科技革命加快了经济结构的调整,2002-2007年,经济结构变化主要对第二产业就业带来积极影响,2007-2012年,这种积极影响则转向第三产业,说明我国在经济转型过程中就业需求已逐渐向第三产业的生产性和生活性服务业转移。
Since China has been promoting supply-side reform determinedly,it is particularly important for us to explore the determinants of employment changes from the supply side. This paper,from the supply side,decomposes the determinants of employment into technological development factor,economic growth factor and economic structure factor,using Ghosh's ‘supply-driven'input-output model and structural decomposition techniques. The results suggest that economic growth and employment growth are closely related,and the slow-down in economic growth would bring pressure on employment growth. The technological development improves labor productivity,but also increases the risk of unemployment. Meanwhile,technological development has accelerated the adjustment of economic structure.In 2002-2007,the adjustment of economic structure had a positive impact on the employment of secondary industries. In 2007-2012,this positive impact turned to the tertiary industries,which means the demand for employment in China has gradually transferred to service industries with economic transition.
Since China has been promoting supply-side reform determinedly,it is particularly important for us to explore the determinants of employment changes from the supply side. This paper,from the supply side,decomposes the determinants of employment into technological development factor,economic growth factor and economic structure factor,using Ghosh's ‘supply-driven'input-output model and structural decomposition techniques. The results suggest that economic growth and employment growth are closely related,and the slow-down in economic growth would bring pressure on employment growth. The technological development improves labor productivity,but also increases the risk of unemployment. Meanwhile,technological development has accelerated the adjustment of economic structure.In 2002-2007,the adjustment of economic structure had a positive impact on the employment of secondary industries. In 2007-2012,this positive impact turned to the tertiary industries,which means the demand for employment in China has gradually transferred to service industries with economic transition.
引文
[1]陈桢.经济增长与就业增长关系的实证研究[J].经济学家,2012,(5):68-76
[2]石昶,宋德勇.隐性失业影响中国就业增长与经济增长的关系吗?[J].经济学家,2012,(5):68-76
[3]陆铭,欧海军.高增长与低就业:政府干预与就业弹性的经验研究[J].世界经济,2011,(12):3-31
[4]汪泓,崔开昌.中国就业增长与城镇化水平关系的实证研究[J].南京社会科学,2012,(8):28-32
[5]姚战琪,夏杰长.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005,(1):58-67
[6]喻桂华,张春煜.中国产业结构与就业问题[J].当代经济科学,2004,26(5):9-13
[7]孙丽文,俞会新.经济结构调整对就业的影响分析[J].工业技术经济,2004,23(4):66-67
[8]Dietzenbacher E.In Vindication of The Ghosh Model:A Reinterpretation as A Price Model[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997,37(4):629-651
[9]De Mesnard L.Is The Ghosh Model Interesting?[J].Journal of Regional Science,2009,49(2):361-372
[10]王会娟,陈锡康.探寻我国非农就业人数增加的背后因素[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(5):694-701
[11]吴小松,范金,胡汉辉.我国就业增长与结构变迁的影响因素:基于SDA的分析[J].经济科学,2007,(1):5-14
[12]陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2011
[13]Dietzenbacher E.,Los B.Structural Decomposition Techniques:Sense and Sensitivity[J].Economic Systems Research,1998,10(3):307-324
[14]Dietzenbacher E.,Los B.Structural Decomposition Analyses with Dependent Determinants[J].Economic Systems Research,2000,12(4):497-511
[15]De Boer P.Addictive Structural Decomposition Analysis and Index Number Theory:An Empirical Application of the Montgomery Decomposition[J].Economic Systems Rearch,2008,20(1):97-109
[16]陈桢.产业结构与就业结构关系失衡的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(10):32-37
[17]李俊峰,王代敬,宋小军.经济增长与就业增长的关系研究---两者相关性的重新判定[J].中国软科学,2005,(1):64-70
[18]李红松.我国经济增长与就业弹性问题研究[J].财经研究,2003,29(4):23-27
(1)由于全国经济普查的年份分别为2004、2008、2013年(此后为每5年一次),《中国经济普查年鉴》也只有这三个年份。因此在测算2002年就业结构时采用的是2004年的就业结构。
[2]石昶,宋德勇.隐性失业影响中国就业增长与经济增长的关系吗?[J].经济学家,2012,(5):68-76
[3]陆铭,欧海军.高增长与低就业:政府干预与就业弹性的经验研究[J].世界经济,2011,(12):3-31
[4]汪泓,崔开昌.中国就业增长与城镇化水平关系的实证研究[J].南京社会科学,2012,(8):28-32
[5]姚战琪,夏杰长.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005,(1):58-67
[6]喻桂华,张春煜.中国产业结构与就业问题[J].当代经济科学,2004,26(5):9-13
[7]孙丽文,俞会新.经济结构调整对就业的影响分析[J].工业技术经济,2004,23(4):66-67
[8]Dietzenbacher E.In Vindication of The Ghosh Model:A Reinterpretation as A Price Model[J].Journal of Regional Science,1997,37(4):629-651
[9]De Mesnard L.Is The Ghosh Model Interesting?[J].Journal of Regional Science,2009,49(2):361-372
[10]王会娟,陈锡康.探寻我国非农就业人数增加的背后因素[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(5):694-701
[11]吴小松,范金,胡汉辉.我国就业增长与结构变迁的影响因素:基于SDA的分析[J].经济科学,2007,(1):5-14
[12]陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2011
[13]Dietzenbacher E.,Los B.Structural Decomposition Techniques:Sense and Sensitivity[J].Economic Systems Research,1998,10(3):307-324
[14]Dietzenbacher E.,Los B.Structural Decomposition Analyses with Dependent Determinants[J].Economic Systems Research,2000,12(4):497-511
[15]De Boer P.Addictive Structural Decomposition Analysis and Index Number Theory:An Empirical Application of the Montgomery Decomposition[J].Economic Systems Rearch,2008,20(1):97-109
[16]陈桢.产业结构与就业结构关系失衡的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,29(10):32-37
[17]李俊峰,王代敬,宋小军.经济增长与就业增长的关系研究---两者相关性的重新判定[J].中国软科学,2005,(1):64-70
[18]李红松.我国经济增长与就业弹性问题研究[J].财经研究,2003,29(4):23-27
(1)由于全国经济普查的年份分别为2004、2008、2013年(此后为每5年一次),《中国经济普查年鉴》也只有这三个年份。因此在测算2002年就业结构时采用的是2004年的就业结构。