GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用
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摘要
灰色预测模型在有限数据情况中有着较好的预测精度,在各个研究领域得到了广泛的应用,但仍然存在很多需要改进的问题。文章在已有研究的基础上进一步优化初始值和背景值,提出一种新的改进GM(1,1)模型,并将其应用到旅游客流量的预测中,结果表明,改进的GM(1,1)模型具有较好的预测性能。
Grey prediction model has good prediction accuracy in the case of limited data and has been widely used in various research fields, but there are still many problems to be solved. On the basis of the existing research, this paper firstly optimizes the initial value and background value, and then proposes a new improved GM(1,1) model, and finally applies it to the prediction of tourist flow. The results show that the improved GM(1,1) model has better prediction performance.
Grey prediction model has good prediction accuracy in the case of limited data and has been widely used in various research fields, but there are still many problems to be solved. On the basis of the existing research, this paper firstly optimizes the initial value and background value, and then proposes a new improved GM(1,1) model, and finally applies it to the prediction of tourist flow. The results show that the improved GM(1,1) model has better prediction performance.
引文
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[4]Zhang J.Improvement of Grey Forcasting Model and Its Application[J].Xian University of Technology,2008.
[5]Jing Ye,Yaoguo Dang,Bingjun Li.Grey-Markov Prediction Model Based on Background Value Optimization and Central-point Triangular Whitenzation Weight Function[J].Commun Nonlinear Sci Number Simualt,2017,(54).
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[11]Hsu L Wang C.Forecating the Output of Integrated Circuit Industry Using a Grey Model Improved by the Bayesian Analysis[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2007,(74).
[12]Mao M.Application of Grey Model GM(1,1)to Vehicle Fatality Risk Estimation[J].Techn-ological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,(73).
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[14]刘树,王燕,胡凤阁.对灰色预测模型残差问题的探讨[J].统计与决策,2008,(1).
[2]Tan G.The Structure Method and Application of Background Value in Grey System GM(1,1)model[J].System Engineering and Theory Practice,2000,20(4).
[3]Dang Y,Liu S,Chen K.The GM Models That x(n)Be Taken as Initial Value[J].Kybernetes,2004,33(2).
[4]Zhang J.Improvement of Grey Forcasting Model and Its Application[J].Xian University of Technology,2008.
[5]Jing Ye,Yaoguo Dang,Bingjun Li.Grey-Markov Prediction Model Based on Background Value Optimization and Central-point Triangular Whitenzation Weight Function[J].Commun Nonlinear Sci Number Simualt,2017,(54).
[6]Liu X Y.Tourism Flows Prediction Based on an Improved Grey GM(1,1)Model[J].Social and Behavioral Science,2014,(138).
[7]Mu Y.An Unbiased GM(1,1)Model With Optimum Grey Derivative’s Whitening Values[J].Mathematical Practice Theory,2003,33(3).
[8]Wang Y.A Step by Step Optimum Direct Modeling Method of GM(1,1)[J].System Engineering Theory&Practice,2000,(9).
[9]Xie K G,Li C Y,Zhou J Q.Grey Model GM(1,1,x)Based on Genetic Alogorithm[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2000,15(2).
[10]Liu Q L.The Grey Forecasting Model of the International Tourist of Henan[J].Henan Science,2010,28.
[11]Hsu L Wang C.Forecating the Output of Integrated Circuit Industry Using a Grey Model Improved by the Bayesian Analysis[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2007,(74).
[12]Mao M.Application of Grey Model GM(1,1)to Vehicle Fatality Risk Estimation[J].Techn-ological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,(73).
[13]孙辰军,王翠茹,张江维等.残差灰色预测模型的改进与应用[J].统计与决策,2005,(5).
[14]刘树,王燕,胡凤阁.对灰色预测模型残差问题的探讨[J].统计与决策,2008,(1).