双台风形势下长三角地区一次大暴雨过程的成因分析
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摘要
利用常规观测资料、多普勒天气雷达拼图资料与NECP再分析资料,对2016年9月15—16日发生在"莫兰蒂"(1614号)和"马勒卡"(1616号)双台风形势下的长三角地区大暴雨过程的成因进行了诊断分析。结果表明:此次暴雨过程发生在台风倒槽的顶端,暴雨区与对流层中低层辐合区和中高层高空急流右后侧辐散区相对应;"莫兰蒂"台风外围的丰富水汽与来自热带洋面"马勒卡"台风外围源源不断输送的水汽叠加,导致长三角地区降雨强度远大于"莫兰蒂"登陆前后阶段的降雨强度;苏皖地区高空槽后冷空气侵入,在浙江到上海沿海地区形成东北—西南向温度锋区,以及浙江中北部海陆交界地带特殊山脉地形的强迫作用,使得中尺度对流系统(MCSs)发展维持;长三角强暴雨区边界水汽通量收支变化与暴雨强度变化对应关系较好,且有6～12 h的提前量,对强降雨预报有一定的指示意义。
Using datasets of conventional observations, the regional mosaics of Doppler weather radar and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have conducted a diagnostic analysis of the cause for an extremely heavy rainfall event under binary typhoons pattern occurred in Yangtze River delta from September 15 to 16 in 2016. The results indicate that the heavy rainfall areas of this event locate in the top of inverted trough of the No.1614 TC"Meranti"after it landed, and are corresponding with the convergence zone in the lower and middle troposphere and the divergence zone at the right rear side of high-level jet in the upper troposphere. The overlay of the abundant water vapor around Typhoon"Moranti"and the continually water vapor coming from the periphery of Typhoon"Malecas"over the tropical ocean results in the rainfall intensity in the Yangtze River Delta far greater than that before and after the landfall of Typhoon"Moranti". A northeast-southwest temperature front zone forms along the coast of Zhejiang to Shanghai with the intrusion of cold air behind the high-altitude trough in Jiangsu and Anhui province, and a forcing effect of the special mountain terrain produces in the sea-land junction zone in the north-central part of Zhejiang province, which significantly promotes the development and maintenance of the mesoscale convective system(MCSs). The variation of water vapor flux budget in the four boundary of the heavy rainfall area in Yangtze River delta is well corresponding with to the change of heavy rainfall intensity, and the former varies 6-12 hours in advance with respect to the latter, which can be an indicator for the forecast of severe precipitation.
Using datasets of conventional observations, the regional mosaics of Doppler weather radar and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have conducted a diagnostic analysis of the cause for an extremely heavy rainfall event under binary typhoons pattern occurred in Yangtze River delta from September 15 to 16 in 2016. The results indicate that the heavy rainfall areas of this event locate in the top of inverted trough of the No.1614 TC"Meranti"after it landed, and are corresponding with the convergence zone in the lower and middle troposphere and the divergence zone at the right rear side of high-level jet in the upper troposphere. The overlay of the abundant water vapor around Typhoon"Moranti"and the continually water vapor coming from the periphery of Typhoon"Malecas"over the tropical ocean results in the rainfall intensity in the Yangtze River Delta far greater than that before and after the landfall of Typhoon"Moranti". A northeast-southwest temperature front zone forms along the coast of Zhejiang to Shanghai with the intrusion of cold air behind the high-altitude trough in Jiangsu and Anhui province, and a forcing effect of the special mountain terrain produces in the sea-land junction zone in the north-central part of Zhejiang province, which significantly promotes the development and maintenance of the mesoscale convective system(MCSs). The variation of water vapor flux budget in the four boundary of the heavy rainfall area in Yangtze River delta is well corresponding with to the change of heavy rainfall intensity, and the former varies 6-12 hours in advance with respect to the latter, which can be an indicator for the forecast of severe precipitation.
引文
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[20]张万诚,汤阳,郑建萌,等.夏季风水汽输送对云南夏季旱涝的影响[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):293-301
[21]卢小丹,王黎娟,刘国忠,等.两个不同季节台风引发广西特大暴雨的水汽和螺旋度对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2017, 33(3):375-385
[22]周福,钱燕珍,方艳莹,等.“灿鸿”台风造成浙江东北部大暴雨成因分析[J].气象,2016,42(3):305-313
[23]张建海,诸晓明,王丽华.台风Haitang和Matsa引发浙江暴雨强度和分布的对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2017,23(2):126-134
[24]储海,杨引明,刘梦娟.—次双台风影响下暴雨过程的中尺度涡旋模拟分析[J].气象,2017,43(11):1 309-1 325
[2]康斌.我国台风灾害统计分析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2016, 26(2):36-40
[3]陈联寿.热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展[J].应用气象学报,2006, 17(6):673-681
[4]孙建华,齐琳琳,赵思雄.“9608”号台风登陆北上引发北方特大暴雨的中尺度对流系统研究[J].气象学报, 2006, 64(1):57-71
[5]薛华星,余锦华.8月中国登陆台风降水与对流层高层西风急流关系的初步研究[J].热带气象学报,2016, 32(5):708-716
[6]钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,2005,63(1):57-68
[7]张娟娟,许爱华,陈云辉.一次远距离台风影响下的对流性暴雨分析[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):335-342
[8]尹东屏,张备,姚丽娜,等.远离热带风暴中心的大暴雨个例分析[J].气象科学,2011,31(6):747-757
[9]岳彩军,韩志惠,顾问,等.“海棠”台风(2005)暴雨及其非对称分布特征成因研究[J].暴雨灾害,2017, 36(4):293-300
[10]沈杭锋,高天赤,周春雨,等.台风海葵引发浙西山区大暴雨的成因[J].气象,2014,40(6):733-743
[11]包澄澜,阮均石,朱跃健,等.双台风互旋与引导气流关系的研究[J].海洋学报,1985,7(6):696-705
[12]陈联寿,孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,2001,25(3):420-431
[13]罗哲贤,马镜娴.副热带高压南侧双台风相互作用的数值研究[J].气象学报,2001,59(4):450-458
[14] Xu X D, Lu C, Xu H X, et al. A possible mechanism responsible for exceptional rainfall over Taiwan from Typhoon Morakot[J]. Atmos Sci Lett, 2011, 12(3):294-299
[15]漆梁波,曹晓岗.双台风形势下上海地区一次暴雨过程的预报分析和对比[J].热带气象学报,2013,29(2):177-188
[16]姚丽娜,韩桂荣,黄文彦,等.台风“菲特”和“丹娜丝”对东南沿海强降水作用的判别分析[J].暴雨灾害, 2016, 35(1):39-44
[17]许映龙,吕心艳,张玲,等.1323号强台风菲特特点及预报难点分析[J].气象, 2015,41(10):1 222-1 231
[18]谢惠敏,任福民,李国平,等.超强台风丹娜丝对1323号强台风菲特极端降水的作用[J].气象, 2016, 42(2):156-165
[19]曹晓岗,王慧,漆梁波.台风与冷空气对“13.10”上海特大暴雨过程的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(4):351-362
[20]张万诚,汤阳,郑建萌,等.夏季风水汽输送对云南夏季旱涝的影响[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):293-301
[21]卢小丹,王黎娟,刘国忠,等.两个不同季节台风引发广西特大暴雨的水汽和螺旋度对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2017, 33(3):375-385
[22]周福,钱燕珍,方艳莹,等.“灿鸿”台风造成浙江东北部大暴雨成因分析[J].气象,2016,42(3):305-313
[23]张建海,诸晓明,王丽华.台风Haitang和Matsa引发浙江暴雨强度和分布的对比分析[J].热带气象学报,2017,23(2):126-134
[24]储海,杨引明,刘梦娟.—次双台风影响下暴雨过程的中尺度涡旋模拟分析[J].气象,2017,43(11):1 309-1 325