长江三角洲城市群工业污染时空演化及其驱动因素
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摘要
基于2003～2015年长江三角洲(以下简称长三角)城市群26个城市工业废水和工业SO_2排放数据,采用标准差椭圆、地理集中指数、工业环境绩效指数、空间形态差异指数等方法从宏观和微观视角对长三角城市群工业污染时空演化进行分析,同时采用对数平均迪氏分解(LMDI)模型对其工业污染排放主要驱动因素进行分解.研究发现:2003～2015年工业废水和工业SO_2排放量分别下降了16.97%和28.79%,但占全国比重仍然较高,尤其是工业废水对生态环境胁迫较大.2种工业污染空间形态均呈现出北(偏西)-南(偏东)的空间分布形态,而2种工业污染重心移动轨迹并不一致,工业废水重心总体上朝向东(偏南)方向迁移了12.85km,而工业SO_2重心总体上朝向西(偏北)方向迁移了26.89km.此外,2种工业污染主要集中分布于长江沿岸城市且污染集中度指数由高到低大致呈半圈层状向周围递减.工业发展与工业污染空间形态演变具有一致性,工业废水重心和工业SO_2重心与工业发展重心距离均在逐渐缩小,而2种工业污染-环境绩效空间分布格局并不完全一致.驱动因素方面,环境规制引起的技术改善效应是工业污染排放量减少的主要原因,而由环境规制引起的产业结构效应对工业污染排放量的影响则取决于区域发展政策,经济发展效应是工业污染排放量增加的主要原因,人口规模效应对工业污染排放量的影响较小.
Based on data of industrial wastewater discharge and industrial SO_2 emission of the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) urban agglomeration from 2003 to 2015, the spatial and temporal evolution of industrial pollution was analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives by using the methods of standard deviation ellipse, geographic concentration index, industrial environmental performance index and spatial shape difference index. At the same time, the logarithmic mean decomposition(LMDI)model was used to decompose the main driving factors of industrial pollution discharge. The study found that: from 2003 to 2015,industrial wastewater and industrial SO_2 emissions decreased by 16.97% and 28.79%, respectively, but their proportions are still relatively high in China, especially for the stress of industrial wastewater on ecological environment. The both spatial patterns of industrial pollution show the spatial distribution pattern of north(west)-south(east), however the two types of industrial pollution have different movement trajectories of the center of gravity. The center of gravity of industrial wastewater moved 12.85km to the east(south) direction, while the center of gravity of industrial SO_2 migrated to the west(north) direction by 26.89km. In addition, the two types of industrial pollution are mainly concentrated in the cities along the Yangtze River and the pollution concentration index decreases to the surrounding areas with the shape of semi-circle layer. The evolution form of industrial development is consistent with that of industrial pollution, both the distances of the industrial development center of gravity between the industrial wastewater center of gravity and the industrial SO_2 center of gravity are gradually reduced, and the spatial distribution patterns of two industrial pollution-environmental performances are not completely consistent. In terms of driving factors, the technological improvement effect caused by environmental regulation is the main reason for the reduction of industrial pollution emissions, while the influence of industrial structure caused by environmental regulation on industrial pollution emissions depends on regional development policies. The economic development effect is the main reason for the increase of industrial pollution emission, and population scale effect has little influence on industrial pollution emission.
Based on data of industrial wastewater discharge and industrial SO_2 emission of the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) urban agglomeration from 2003 to 2015, the spatial and temporal evolution of industrial pollution was analyzed from the macro and micro perspectives by using the methods of standard deviation ellipse, geographic concentration index, industrial environmental performance index and spatial shape difference index. At the same time, the logarithmic mean decomposition(LMDI)model was used to decompose the main driving factors of industrial pollution discharge. The study found that: from 2003 to 2015,industrial wastewater and industrial SO_2 emissions decreased by 16.97% and 28.79%, respectively, but their proportions are still relatively high in China, especially for the stress of industrial wastewater on ecological environment. The both spatial patterns of industrial pollution show the spatial distribution pattern of north(west)-south(east), however the two types of industrial pollution have different movement trajectories of the center of gravity. The center of gravity of industrial wastewater moved 12.85km to the east(south) direction, while the center of gravity of industrial SO_2 migrated to the west(north) direction by 26.89km. In addition, the two types of industrial pollution are mainly concentrated in the cities along the Yangtze River and the pollution concentration index decreases to the surrounding areas with the shape of semi-circle layer. The evolution form of industrial development is consistent with that of industrial pollution, both the distances of the industrial development center of gravity between the industrial wastewater center of gravity and the industrial SO_2 center of gravity are gradually reduced, and the spatial distribution patterns of two industrial pollution-environmental performances are not completely consistent. In terms of driving factors, the technological improvement effect caused by environmental regulation is the main reason for the reduction of industrial pollution emissions, while the influence of industrial structure caused by environmental regulation on industrial pollution emissions depends on regional development policies. The economic development effect is the main reason for the increase of industrial pollution emission, and population scale effect has little influence on industrial pollution emission.
引文
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[2]Panayotou T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environment degradation at different stages of economic development.Working paper,Technology and Employment Program[R].Genevar:Internation labor office,1993.
[3]Beekerman.Economic growth and the environment:whose growth?Whose environment?[J].World Development,1992,(4):481-496.
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[5]Chemiwchan J.Economic growth,industrialization,and the environment[J].Resource Economics,2003,24(1):27-48.
[6]彭文斌,吴伟平,邝嫦娥.中国工业污染空间分布格局研究[J].统计与决策,2013,(20):115-117.Peng W B,Wu W P,Kuang C E.Study on spatial distribution pattern of industrial pollution in China[J].Statistics and Decision,2013,(20):115-117.
[7]曲福田,赵海霞,朱德明,等.江苏省环境污染及影响因素区域差异比较研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,(1):86-92.Qu F T,Zhao H X.Zhu D M,et al.Regional difference in pollution and its cause in Jiangsu province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2006,(1):86-92.
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[15]董战峰,张欣,郝春旭.2014年全球环境绩效指数(EPI)分析与思考[J].环境保护,2015,43(2):55-59.Dong Z F,Zhang X,Hao C.Analysis and thoughts on 2014environmental performance index[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(2):55-59.
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[18]赖玢洁,田金平,刘巍,等.中国生态工业园区发展的环境绩效指数构建方法[J].生态学报,2014,34(22):6745-6755.Lai F J,Tian J P,Liu W,et al.Environmental performance index for eco-industrial park development in China[J].Acta Ecological Sinica,2014,34(22):6745-6755.
[19]范纯增,顾海英,姜虹.长江流域工业环境绩效评价研究[J].生态经济,2015,31(3):31-35+111.Fan C Z,Gu H Y,Jiang H.Research on industrial environmental performance evaluation in Yangtze River Basin[J].Ecological Economy,2015,31(3):31-35+111.
[20]樊胜岳,高桃丽.中国工业污染变动态势及其EKC实证分析-基于生态阈值视角[J].生态经济,2017,33(9):110-115.Fan S Y,Gao T L.Change status of industrial pollution of China and its EKC empirical analysis based on ecological threshold perspective[J].Ecological Economy,2017,33(9):110-115.
[21]陈劭锋,刘扬,邹秀萍,等.1949年以来中国环境与发展关系的演变[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2010,20(2):43-48.Chen X F,Liu Y,Zou X P,et al.Evolutionary stage of relationship between environmental and economic development in China since1949[J].China Population,Resources and Environment[J],2010,20(2):43-48.
[22]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factoring changes in energy and environment entail indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[23]马晓君,董碧滢,于渊博,等.东北三省能源消费碳排放测度及影响因素[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(8):3170-3179.Ma X J,Dong B Y,Yu Y B,et al.Measurement of carbon emissions from energy consumption in three Northeastern provinces and its driving factors[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(08):3170-3179.
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