基于多源信息融合的路堤沉降预测方法
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摘要
准确预测路堤沉降对于规避风险和减小成本至关重要。传统的仅基于场地勘察数据的路堤沉降预测方法的预测值常偏离监测值。提出了基于贝叶斯理论的多源信息融合方法进行路堤沉降预测,采用有限元法模拟多层土体的固结沉降,并结合高效的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟法更新土体参数得到高维后验分布。以新南威尔士州的Ballina地区试验路堤数据为例说明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于贝叶斯理论的多源信息融合方法可以有效融合勘察和监测数据,通过多源数据融合能够较准确地预测路堤沉降。对于Ballina路堤,总体上随着监测数据量的增加,路堤沉降预测预测精度逐渐提高。使用0～116 d监测数据可以准确地预测地表沉降;基于0～496 d监测数据可同时准确预测所有监测点的沉降。对于Ballina路堤,先验信息对沉降预测具有一定影响,但观测误差对预测准度影响微弱。
Accurate prediction of embankment settlement is critical for risk mitigation and cost reduction in embankment projects. Traditionally, the prediction only using data from site investigation usually deviates from the monitored settlement. In this article, it is proposed to integrate multi-source information based on Bayesian theory to predict embankment settlement. The finite element method is adopted to simulate the consolidation process of multiple soil layers, and the posterior high-dimensional distributions of soil parameters are obtained by efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is validated by site data from a trial embankment constructed at Ballina, New South Wales, Australia. The results indicate that the proposed multi-sources information integration method based on Bayesian theory can effectively integrate date from site investigation and field monitoring, based on which the embankment settlement can be accurately predicted. For the trial embankment at Ballina, the accuracy of prediction is improved in terms of the overall trend as more monitored data is incorporated into Bayesian updating. The accuracy of surface prediction can be satisfied based on data from 0-116 d, while the data of 0-496 d can be used to monitor settlement for all the monitoring points. For the Ballina embankment, the prior information affects slightly on the posterior prediction, while the measurement error barely affects the prediction.
Accurate prediction of embankment settlement is critical for risk mitigation and cost reduction in embankment projects. Traditionally, the prediction only using data from site investigation usually deviates from the monitored settlement. In this article, it is proposed to integrate multi-source information based on Bayesian theory to predict embankment settlement. The finite element method is adopted to simulate the consolidation process of multiple soil layers, and the posterior high-dimensional distributions of soil parameters are obtained by efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method is validated by site data from a trial embankment constructed at Ballina, New South Wales, Australia. The results indicate that the proposed multi-sources information integration method based on Bayesian theory can effectively integrate date from site investigation and field monitoring, based on which the embankment settlement can be accurately predicted. For the trial embankment at Ballina, the accuracy of prediction is improved in terms of the overall trend as more monitored data is incorporated into Bayesian updating. The accuracy of surface prediction can be satisfied based on data from 0-116 d, while the data of 0-496 d can be used to monitor settlement for all the monitoring points. For the Ballina embankment, the prior information affects slightly on the posterior prediction, while the measurement error barely affects the prediction.
引文
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[12]LEDESMA A,GENS A,ALONSO E E.Paraameter and variance estimation in geotechnical backanalysis using prior information[J].International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics,1996,20(2):119-141.
[13]HASHASH Y M A,MARULANDA C,GHABOUSSI J,et al.Systematic update of a deep excavation model using field performance data[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2003,30(6):477-488.
[14]VARDON P J,LIU K,HICKS M A.Reduction of slope stability uncertainty based on hydraulic measurement via inverse analysis[J].Georisk:Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards,2016,10(3):223-240.
[15]ZHANG L L,ZHANG J,ZHANG L M,et al.Back analysis of slope failure with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2010,37(7-8):905-912.
[16]ZHANG J,TANG W H,ZHANG L M.Efficient probabilistic back-analysis of slope stability model parameters[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2010,136(1):99-109.
[17]张蕾,李典庆,唐小松,等.基于贝叶斯理论的抗剪强度参数最优Copula函数识别[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊2):578-588.ZHANG Lei,LI Dian-qing,TANG Xiao-song,et al.Bayesian Copula selection for shear strength parameters of soils and rocks[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(Supp.2):578-588.
[18]BECK J L,AU S-K.Bayesian updating of structural models and reliability using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,2002,128(4):380-391.
[19]吕庆,尚岳全,陈允法,等.高填方路堤黏弹性参数反演与工后沉降预测分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(7):1231-1235.LüQing,SHANG Yue-quan,CHEN Yun-fa,et al.Back-analysis of visco-elastic parameters of filling materials and settlement prediction for high-filled embankment[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(7):1231-1235.
[20]HUANG J,KELLY R,LI D,et al.Updating reliability of single piles and pile groups by load tests[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2016,73:221-230.
[21]CASSIDY M,LI J,HU P,et al.Deterministic and probabilistic advances in the analysis of spudcan behavior[C]//Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics III-Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics.Oslo,Norway:CRC,2015:183-212.
[22]HSIAO E C L,JUANG C H,KUNG G T C,et al.Reliability analysis and updating of excavation-induced ground settlement for building serviceability evaluation[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2008,134(10):1448-1458.
[23]张湾,李典庆,曹子君.基坑开挖参数反分析贝叶斯方法比较研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2016,49(6):806-811.ZHANG Wan,LI Dian-qing,CAO Zi-jun.Comparative study of Bayesian methods for back analysis of deep excavationresponse surface method and stochastic response surface method for structural reliability analysis[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2016,49(6).806-811.
[24]PENG M,LI X Y,LI D Q,et al.Slope safety evaluation by integrating multi-source monitoring information[J].Structural Safety,2014,49:65-74.
[25]KELLY R,O’LOUGHLIN C,BATES L,et al.In situ testing at the National Soft Soil Field Testing Facility,Ballina,New South Wales[J].Australian Geomechanics Journal,2014,49(4):15-28.
[26]PINEDA J A,SUWAL L P,KELLY R B,et al.Characterisation of Ballina clay[J].Géotechnique,2016,66(7):556-577.
[27]KELLY R B,PINEDA J A,BATES L,et al.Site characterisation for the Ballina field testing facility[J].Géotechnique,2017,67(4):279-300.
[28]GELMAN A,CARLIN J B,STERN H S,et al.Bayesian data analysis[M].Florida:CRC,2014.
[29]ROSCOE K H,SCHOFIELD A N,THURAIRAJAH A.Yielding of clays in states wetter than critical[J].Géotechnique,1963,13(3):211-240.
[30]VRUGT J A,TER BRAAK C J F,DIKS C G H,et al.Accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by differential evolution with self-adaptive randomized subspace sampling[J].International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation,2009,10(3):273-290.
[31]SMITH I M,GRIFFITHS D V,MARGETTS L.Programming the finite element method[M].Hoboken,New Jersey:John Wiley&Sons,2013.
[32]HUANG J,GRIFFITHS D V.One-dimensional consolidation theories for layered soil and coupled and uncoupled solutions by the finite-element method[J].Géotechnique,2010,60(9):709-713.
[33]WALKER R,INDRARATNA B.Vertical drain consolidation with overlapping smear zones[J].Géotechnique,2007,57(5):463-467.
[34]郑栋,李典庆,曹子君,等.土体参数空间变异性对边坡失效模式间相关性及系统可靠度的影响[J].岩土力学,2017,38(2):517-533.ZHENG Dong,LI Dian-qing,CAO Zi-jun,et al.Effect of spatial variability on correlation between slope failure modes and system reliability of slope stability[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(2):517-733.
[35]李典庆,肖特,曹子君,等.基于极限平衡法和有限元法的边坡协同式可靠度分析[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(6):1004-1013.LI Dian-qing,XIAO Te,CAO Zi-jun,et al.Auxiliary slope reliability analysis using limit equilibrium method and finite element method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2016,38(6):1004-1013.
[36]CAO Z,WANG Y,LI D.Quantification of prior knowledge in geotechnical site characterization[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:107-116.
[37]TER BRAAK C J F.A Markov Chain Monte Carlo version of the genetic algorithm differential evolution:Easy Bayesian computing for real parameter spaces[J].Statistics and Computing,2006,16(3):239-249.
[38]KELLY R B,SLOAN S W,PINEDA J A,et al.Outcomes of the Newcastle symposium for the prediction of embankment behaviour on soft soil[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2018,93:9-41.
[39]INDRARATNA B,RUJIKIATKAMJORN C,KELLY R,et al.Soft soil foundation improved by vacuum and surcharge loading[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Ground Improvement,2012,165(2):87-96.
[40]BENSON C H.Probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity of compacted soil liners[J].Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1993,119(3):471-486.
[41]DUNCAN J M.Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2000,126(4):307-316.
[42]BASU D,PREZZI M,MADHAV M R.Effect of soil disturbance on consolidation by prefabricated vertical drains installed in a rectangular pattern[J].Geotechnical and Geological Engineering,2009,28(1):61-77.
[43]LEROUEIL S,KABBAJ M,TAVENAS F.Study of the validity of a v??-v?-v?(5)model in in situ conditions[J].Soils and Foundations,1988,28(3):13-25.
[44]LUMB P.The variability of natural soils[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1966,3(2):74-97.
[2]KELLY R,HUANG J.Bayesian updating for onedimensional consolidation measurements[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,2015,52(9):1318-1330.
[3]HONJO Y,LIU W T,GUHA S.Inverse analysis of an embankment on soft clay by extended Bayesian method[J].International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics,1994,18(10):709-734.
[4]胡安峰,张晓冬,贾玉帅,等.饱和软土路基长期沉降计算研究[J].岩土工程学报,2013,35(增刊2):788-792.HU An-feng,ZHANG Xiao-dong,JIA Yu-shuai,et al.Permanent settlement of subgrade of saturated soft soils[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2013,35(Supp.2):788-792.
[5]PECK R B.Advantages and limitations of the observational method in applied soil mechanics[J].Géotechnique,1969,19(2):171-187.
[6]史旦达,周健,贾敏才,等.考虑蠕变性状的港区软土地基参数反演和长期沉降预测[J].岩土力学,2009,30(3):746-750.SHI Dan-da,ZHOU Jian,JIA Min-cai,et al.Back analysis of parameters and long-term settlement prediction of harbor soft ground considering its creep behavior[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(3):746-750.
[7]JUANG C H,LUO Z,ATAMTURKTUR S,et al.Bayesian updating of soil parameters for braced excavations using field observations[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2013,139(3):395-406.
[8]HACHICH W,VANMARCKE E H.Probabilistic updating of pore pressure fields[J].Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1983,109(3):373-387.
[9]GIODA G,SAKURAI S.Back analysis procedures for the interpretation of field measurements in geomechanics[J].International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics,1987,11(6):555-583.
[10]刘松玉,经绯.软土地基上分期施工的路堤沉降预测方法[J].岩土工程学报,2003,25(2):228-232.LIU Song-yu,JIANG Fei.Settlement prediction of embankments with stage construction on soft ground[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2003,25(2):228-232.
[11]杨林德,冯紫良,朱合华.岩土工程问题的反演理论与工程实践[M].北京:科学出版社.1996.YANG Lin-de,FENG Zi-liang,ZHU He-hua.Theory and engineering practice of back analysis in geotechnical engineering problems[M].Beijing:Science Press,1996.
[12]LEDESMA A,GENS A,ALONSO E E.Paraameter and variance estimation in geotechnical backanalysis using prior information[J].International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics,1996,20(2):119-141.
[13]HASHASH Y M A,MARULANDA C,GHABOUSSI J,et al.Systematic update of a deep excavation model using field performance data[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2003,30(6):477-488.
[14]VARDON P J,LIU K,HICKS M A.Reduction of slope stability uncertainty based on hydraulic measurement via inverse analysis[J].Georisk:Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards,2016,10(3):223-240.
[15]ZHANG L L,ZHANG J,ZHANG L M,et al.Back analysis of slope failure with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2010,37(7-8):905-912.
[16]ZHANG J,TANG W H,ZHANG L M.Efficient probabilistic back-analysis of slope stability model parameters[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2010,136(1):99-109.
[17]张蕾,李典庆,唐小松,等.基于贝叶斯理论的抗剪强度参数最优Copula函数识别[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊2):578-588.ZHANG Lei,LI Dian-qing,TANG Xiao-song,et al.Bayesian Copula selection for shear strength parameters of soils and rocks[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(Supp.2):578-588.
[18]BECK J L,AU S-K.Bayesian updating of structural models and reliability using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Engineering Mechanics,2002,128(4):380-391.
[19]吕庆,尚岳全,陈允法,等.高填方路堤黏弹性参数反演与工后沉降预测分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(7):1231-1235.LüQing,SHANG Yue-quan,CHEN Yun-fa,et al.Back-analysis of visco-elastic parameters of filling materials and settlement prediction for high-filled embankment[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(7):1231-1235.
[20]HUANG J,KELLY R,LI D,et al.Updating reliability of single piles and pile groups by load tests[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2016,73:221-230.
[21]CASSIDY M,LI J,HU P,et al.Deterministic and probabilistic advances in the analysis of spudcan behavior[C]//Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics III-Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Frontiers in Offshore Geotechnics.Oslo,Norway:CRC,2015:183-212.
[22]HSIAO E C L,JUANG C H,KUNG G T C,et al.Reliability analysis and updating of excavation-induced ground settlement for building serviceability evaluation[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2008,134(10):1448-1458.
[23]张湾,李典庆,曹子君.基坑开挖参数反分析贝叶斯方法比较研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2016,49(6):806-811.ZHANG Wan,LI Dian-qing,CAO Zi-jun.Comparative study of Bayesian methods for back analysis of deep excavationresponse surface method and stochastic response surface method for structural reliability analysis[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2016,49(6).806-811.
[24]PENG M,LI X Y,LI D Q,et al.Slope safety evaluation by integrating multi-source monitoring information[J].Structural Safety,2014,49:65-74.
[25]KELLY R,O’LOUGHLIN C,BATES L,et al.In situ testing at the National Soft Soil Field Testing Facility,Ballina,New South Wales[J].Australian Geomechanics Journal,2014,49(4):15-28.
[26]PINEDA J A,SUWAL L P,KELLY R B,et al.Characterisation of Ballina clay[J].Géotechnique,2016,66(7):556-577.
[27]KELLY R B,PINEDA J A,BATES L,et al.Site characterisation for the Ballina field testing facility[J].Géotechnique,2017,67(4):279-300.
[28]GELMAN A,CARLIN J B,STERN H S,et al.Bayesian data analysis[M].Florida:CRC,2014.
[29]ROSCOE K H,SCHOFIELD A N,THURAIRAJAH A.Yielding of clays in states wetter than critical[J].Géotechnique,1963,13(3):211-240.
[30]VRUGT J A,TER BRAAK C J F,DIKS C G H,et al.Accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by differential evolution with self-adaptive randomized subspace sampling[J].International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation,2009,10(3):273-290.
[31]SMITH I M,GRIFFITHS D V,MARGETTS L.Programming the finite element method[M].Hoboken,New Jersey:John Wiley&Sons,2013.
[32]HUANG J,GRIFFITHS D V.One-dimensional consolidation theories for layered soil and coupled and uncoupled solutions by the finite-element method[J].Géotechnique,2010,60(9):709-713.
[33]WALKER R,INDRARATNA B.Vertical drain consolidation with overlapping smear zones[J].Géotechnique,2007,57(5):463-467.
[34]郑栋,李典庆,曹子君,等.土体参数空间变异性对边坡失效模式间相关性及系统可靠度的影响[J].岩土力学,2017,38(2):517-533.ZHENG Dong,LI Dian-qing,CAO Zi-jun,et al.Effect of spatial variability on correlation between slope failure modes and system reliability of slope stability[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(2):517-733.
[35]李典庆,肖特,曹子君,等.基于极限平衡法和有限元法的边坡协同式可靠度分析[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(6):1004-1013.LI Dian-qing,XIAO Te,CAO Zi-jun,et al.Auxiliary slope reliability analysis using limit equilibrium method and finite element method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2016,38(6):1004-1013.
[36]CAO Z,WANG Y,LI D.Quantification of prior knowledge in geotechnical site characterization[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:107-116.
[37]TER BRAAK C J F.A Markov Chain Monte Carlo version of the genetic algorithm differential evolution:Easy Bayesian computing for real parameter spaces[J].Statistics and Computing,2006,16(3):239-249.
[38]KELLY R B,SLOAN S W,PINEDA J A,et al.Outcomes of the Newcastle symposium for the prediction of embankment behaviour on soft soil[J].Computers and Geotechnics,2018,93:9-41.
[39]INDRARATNA B,RUJIKIATKAMJORN C,KELLY R,et al.Soft soil foundation improved by vacuum and surcharge loading[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Ground Improvement,2012,165(2):87-96.
[40]BENSON C H.Probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity of compacted soil liners[J].Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1993,119(3):471-486.
[41]DUNCAN J M.Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J].Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2000,126(4):307-316.
[42]BASU D,PREZZI M,MADHAV M R.Effect of soil disturbance on consolidation by prefabricated vertical drains installed in a rectangular pattern[J].Geotechnical and Geological Engineering,2009,28(1):61-77.
[43]LEROUEIL S,KABBAJ M,TAVENAS F.Study of the validity of a v??-v?-v?(5)model in in situ conditions[J].Soils and Foundations,1988,28(3):13-25.
[44]LUMB P.The variability of natural soils[J].Canadian Geotechnical Journal,1966,3(2):74-97.
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