新交通法规对机动车闯红灯违法影响效果
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摘要
本文选取黑龙江省2007年1月至2013年9月的机动车闯红灯违法行为数量序列,运用时间序列差分整合自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)干预模型分析的方法,从定量分析的角度针对新交通法规的政策干预对黑龙江省机动车闯红灯违法行为发展趋势所产生的影响进行评估和分析。建模结果表明,ARIMA干预模型可以定量分析政府的法规政策对交通管理违法行为的实际影响。故而,时间序列干预分析的方法可广泛地应用于交通管理决策的效果评估,从而为科学交通管理提供有力的技术支撑。
We quantitatively evaluate the impact of traffic regulation on vehicle red-light violation by ARIMA intervention model. The data we used are the traffic violation data of Heilongjiang Province from January 2007 to September 2013. The results show that, ARIMA intervention model can be widely used to quantitatively analyze the impact of traffic regulation, and hence provide technical support for making traffic management decisions.
We quantitatively evaluate the impact of traffic regulation on vehicle red-light violation by ARIMA intervention model. The data we used are the traffic violation data of Heilongjiang Province from January 2007 to September 2013. The results show that, ARIMA intervention model can be widely used to quantitatively analyze the impact of traffic regulation, and hence provide technical support for making traffic management decisions.
引文
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[2]王进,史其信.短时交通流预测模型综述[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2005,(1).
[3]R.H.Shummway,D.S.Stoffer.TimeSeries Analysis and Its Applications withR Examples(second edition)[M].New York:Springer,2006.
[4]J.D.Cryer,K.-S.Chan.时间序列分析与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2011.
[5]Benjamin Kedem,Konstantinos Fokianos.Regression Models for Time Series Analysis[M].New Jersey:John Wiley,2002.
[6]David J Houston,Lilliard E Richardson.Traffic safety and the switch to a primary seat belt law:the California experience[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2002,34,(6):743–751.
[7]Robert B.Noland,Mohammed,A.Quddus,Washington,Y.Ochieng.The effect of the London congestion charge on road casualties:an intervention analysis[J].Transportation,2008,35,(1):73-91.
[8]Mohammed A.Quddus.Time series count data models:An empirical application to traffic accidents[J].Accident Analysis&Prevention,2008,40,(5):1732–1741.
[9]PrateekSharma,MukeshKhare,.Application of intervention analysis for assessing the effectiveness of CO pollution control legislation in India[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,1999,4,(6):427–432.