基于前景值评价法的上海住房保障政策效应研究
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摘要
文章比较选取了前景值评价法作为上海住房保障政策效应的综合评价方法,通过纠正总相关系数和因子分析的方法筛选了相应的评价指标,为科学地评价上海住房保障政策效应奠定了理论基础.在获取1998-2014年的各项指标数据进行模型测算以后,梳理了上海住房保障政策效应综合前景值的变化规律,明确了各类保障性住房政策发挥的作用和效力.而与倒U型社会保障水平发展历程相对比,上海构建多层次住房保障体系的探索则相对滞后.
This paper selected the evaluation method of prospect theory as comprehensive evaluation method of evaluating Shanghai housing security policy effect, and then screened the corresponding evaluation index by means of correcting total correlation coefficient and factor analysis, thus laying the theoretical foundation for the scientific evaluation of Shanghai housing security policy effect. After model calculation had been done using the index data from 1998 to 2014, the change law of the comprehensive value estimating housing security policy effect was cleared, and the effects and function of various security housing policy was clarified. However, when compared with the inverted U-shaped development process of social security level, the exploration of multi-level housing security system is found to be relatively fallen behind for Shanghai.
This paper selected the evaluation method of prospect theory as comprehensive evaluation method of evaluating Shanghai housing security policy effect, and then screened the corresponding evaluation index by means of correcting total correlation coefficient and factor analysis, thus laying the theoretical foundation for the scientific evaluation of Shanghai housing security policy effect. After model calculation had been done using the index data from 1998 to 2014, the change law of the comprehensive value estimating housing security policy effect was cleared, and the effects and function of various security housing policy was clarified. However, when compared with the inverted U-shaped development process of social security level, the exploration of multi-level housing security system is found to be relatively fallen behind for Shanghai.
引文
[1]赖华东,蔡靖方.城市住房保障政策效果及其选择——基于住宅过滤模型的思考[J].经济评论,2007(3):136-140.Lai H D, Cai J F. The effect and choice of urban housing security policy—Based on the housing filtering model[J]. Economic Review, 2007(3):136-140.
[2]罗雅,胡宏伟,刘宇.中国住房保障政策实施效果评估——基于1997-2010年的数据[J].学术研究,2012(6):55-61.Luo Y, Hu H W, Liu Y. An evaluation on the effect of Chinese policy for protecting housing—Based on the data of 1997-2009[J]. Academic Research Journal, 2012(6):55-61.
[3]张跃松,李桂君,谢宇宁.基于VAR棋型的保障性住房对普通商品房挤出效应分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2013, 1(7):79-82.Zhang Y S, Li G J, Xie Y N. A VAR-based study on the impaction of the affordable housing to the private housing[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance&Economics, 2013, 1(7):79-82.
[4]邬丽萍.住房保障及其形式选择[J]·改革与战略,2004(7):32-34.Wu L P. Housing security and its form choice[J]. Reformation&Strategy, 2004(7):32-34.
[5]李晶.完善保障性租赁住房政策的必要性研究[J].城市规划,2008(5):45-50.Li J. Necessity of improving low-rent housing policies[J]. Urban Planning, 2008(5):45-50.
[6]唐钧.中国住房保障问题:社会政策的视角[J].中共中央党校学报,2010(1):47-50.Tang J. Housing security in China:A social policy perspective[J]. Journal of the Party School of the Central Committee of the C.P.C, 2010(1):47-50.
[7]孙建欣,吕斌,陈睿.中国城市经济适用房保障模式研究[J].城市发展研究,2012, 19(5):66-71.Sun J X, Lii B, Chen R. A study on China economically affordable housing security pattern[J]. Urban Studies,2012, 19(5):66-71.
[8]卢超.通过市场主体实现住房保障之国家义务——美国包容性规划法律政策的启示[J].比较法研究,2014, 27(5):33-44.Lu C. Fulfilling the state obligation of affordable housing supply by market mechanism:A comparative law research on US inclusionary Zoning policy[J]. Journal of Comparative Law, 2014, 27(5):33-44.
[9]严荣.完善共有产权住房体系建设研究[J].经济纵横,2015(1):24-27.Yan R. Study on improving the system of joint-ownership housing[J]. Economic Review, 2015(1):24-27.
[10]褚超孚.城镇住房保障规模影响因素的相关分析研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005, 35(4):106-113.Chu C F. A correlation study of factors influencing urban housing-based social security[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences), 2005, 35(4):106-113.
[11]贾洪波,王清河.中国城镇居民保障房实际需求总量研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(10):52-56.Jia H B, Wang Q H. Study on the total actual demand of urban residents to protective houses in China[J]. Urban Studies, 2013, 20(10):52-56.
[12]陈军.北京市保障性住房供给政策研究[J].经济纵横,2014(1):108-111.Chen J. Study on affordable housing supply policy in Beijing[J]. Economic Review, 2014(1):108-111.
[13]张肇宇,刘树枫.基于住房支付能力的保障性住房供求均衡分析[J].经济问题探索,2014(5):21-26.Zhang Z Y, Liu S F. Equilibrium analysis of affordable housing demand and supply based on housing affordability[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2014(5):21-26.
[14]余凌志.廉租住房保障水平研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2007.Yu L Z. Research on moderation of low-rent housing security level[D]. Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2007.
[15]贾康,张晓云.我国住房保障模式选择与政策优化:政府如何权衡“倒U曲线”演变中的机会公平与结果均平?[J].财政研究,2012(7):2-15.Jia K,Zhang X Y. Housing security model choice and policy optimization in China:How does the government balance the equality of opportunity and even of result of the"inverted U curve"?[J]. Public Finance Research,2012(7):2-15.
[16]修大鹏,吕萍,戚仕军.政府与市场:住房保障边界及其确定[J].经济问题探索,2013(8):1-8.Xiu D P, Lii P, Qi S J. Government and market:The boundary of housing security and its ascertainment[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2013(8):1-8.
[17]朱亚鹏.中国住房保障政策分析——社会政策视角[J].公共行政评论,2008, 1(4):84-109.Zhu Y P. An analysis of housing policy in China:A social policy perspective[J]. Public Administration Review,2008, 1(4):84-109.
[18]余劲,袁南南.廉租住房实物配售与配租的效果研究——基于陕西省XX市的调查[J].公共管理学报,2012, 9(1):64-69.Yu J, Yuan N N. Analysis on the effects of oriented-rent housing and oriented-sell housing about low-rent housing—Based on the survey in XX city in Shanxi province[J]. Journal of Public Management, 2012, 9(1):64-69.
[19]吴宾,孙慧慧.我国住房保障政策实施的政府绩效评估研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):70-76.Wu B, Sun H H. Government performance evaluation research in housing security policy implementation in China[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences Edition), 2013(4):70-76.
[20]陈立中.住房保障政策瞄准效率及其影响因素——来自北京市廉租房和经济适用房政策的实证[J].财经科学,2010(5):39-46.Chen L Z. An analysis on the targeting efficiency and influencing factors of housing security policies:Evidence from low-rent housing and economical housing in Beijing City[J]. Finance&Economics, 2010(5):39-46.
[21]王蕾.以公平为基点反思我国住房保障政策[J].华东政法大学学报,2011,14(6):117-123.Wang L. Rethinking China's housing security policy on the basis of fairness[J]. Journal of East China University of Political Science and Law, 2011, 14(6):117-123.
[22] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk title[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2):263-291.
[23] Fiegenbaum A, Thomas H. Attitudes toward risk and the risk-return paradox:Prospect theory explanations[J].Academy of Management Journal, 1988, 31(1):85-106.
[24] Jegers M. Prospect theory and the risk-return relation:Some Belgian evidence[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1991, 34(1):215-225.
[25] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk&Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[26] Wu G,Gonzalez R. Curvature of the probability weighting function[J]. Management Science, 1996, 42(12):1676-1690.
[27] Prelec D. The probability weighting function[J]. Econometrica, 1998, 66(3):497-527.
[28] Diecidue E, Schmidt U, Zank H. Parametric weighting functions[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 144(3):1102-1118.
[29]穆怀中.社会保障水平发展曲线研究[J].人口研究,2003, 27(2):22-28.Mu H Z. Study on the curve-shape development of life security level[J]. Population Research, 2003, 27(2):22-28.
[2]罗雅,胡宏伟,刘宇.中国住房保障政策实施效果评估——基于1997-2010年的数据[J].学术研究,2012(6):55-61.Luo Y, Hu H W, Liu Y. An evaluation on the effect of Chinese policy for protecting housing—Based on the data of 1997-2009[J]. Academic Research Journal, 2012(6):55-61.
[3]张跃松,李桂君,谢宇宁.基于VAR棋型的保障性住房对普通商品房挤出效应分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2013, 1(7):79-82.Zhang Y S, Li G J, Xie Y N. A VAR-based study on the impaction of the affordable housing to the private housing[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance&Economics, 2013, 1(7):79-82.
[4]邬丽萍.住房保障及其形式选择[J]·改革与战略,2004(7):32-34.Wu L P. Housing security and its form choice[J]. Reformation&Strategy, 2004(7):32-34.
[5]李晶.完善保障性租赁住房政策的必要性研究[J].城市规划,2008(5):45-50.Li J. Necessity of improving low-rent housing policies[J]. Urban Planning, 2008(5):45-50.
[6]唐钧.中国住房保障问题:社会政策的视角[J].中共中央党校学报,2010(1):47-50.Tang J. Housing security in China:A social policy perspective[J]. Journal of the Party School of the Central Committee of the C.P.C, 2010(1):47-50.
[7]孙建欣,吕斌,陈睿.中国城市经济适用房保障模式研究[J].城市发展研究,2012, 19(5):66-71.Sun J X, Lii B, Chen R. A study on China economically affordable housing security pattern[J]. Urban Studies,2012, 19(5):66-71.
[8]卢超.通过市场主体实现住房保障之国家义务——美国包容性规划法律政策的启示[J].比较法研究,2014, 27(5):33-44.Lu C. Fulfilling the state obligation of affordable housing supply by market mechanism:A comparative law research on US inclusionary Zoning policy[J]. Journal of Comparative Law, 2014, 27(5):33-44.
[9]严荣.完善共有产权住房体系建设研究[J].经济纵横,2015(1):24-27.Yan R. Study on improving the system of joint-ownership housing[J]. Economic Review, 2015(1):24-27.
[10]褚超孚.城镇住房保障规模影响因素的相关分析研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005, 35(4):106-113.Chu C F. A correlation study of factors influencing urban housing-based social security[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences), 2005, 35(4):106-113.
[11]贾洪波,王清河.中国城镇居民保障房实际需求总量研究[J].城市发展研究,2013,20(10):52-56.Jia H B, Wang Q H. Study on the total actual demand of urban residents to protective houses in China[J]. Urban Studies, 2013, 20(10):52-56.
[12]陈军.北京市保障性住房供给政策研究[J].经济纵横,2014(1):108-111.Chen J. Study on affordable housing supply policy in Beijing[J]. Economic Review, 2014(1):108-111.
[13]张肇宇,刘树枫.基于住房支付能力的保障性住房供求均衡分析[J].经济问题探索,2014(5):21-26.Zhang Z Y, Liu S F. Equilibrium analysis of affordable housing demand and supply based on housing affordability[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2014(5):21-26.
[14]余凌志.廉租住房保障水平研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2007.Yu L Z. Research on moderation of low-rent housing security level[D]. Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2007.
[15]贾康,张晓云.我国住房保障模式选择与政策优化:政府如何权衡“倒U曲线”演变中的机会公平与结果均平?[J].财政研究,2012(7):2-15.Jia K,Zhang X Y. Housing security model choice and policy optimization in China:How does the government balance the equality of opportunity and even of result of the"inverted U curve"?[J]. Public Finance Research,2012(7):2-15.
[16]修大鹏,吕萍,戚仕军.政府与市场:住房保障边界及其确定[J].经济问题探索,2013(8):1-8.Xiu D P, Lii P, Qi S J. Government and market:The boundary of housing security and its ascertainment[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2013(8):1-8.
[17]朱亚鹏.中国住房保障政策分析——社会政策视角[J].公共行政评论,2008, 1(4):84-109.Zhu Y P. An analysis of housing policy in China:A social policy perspective[J]. Public Administration Review,2008, 1(4):84-109.
[18]余劲,袁南南.廉租住房实物配售与配租的效果研究——基于陕西省XX市的调查[J].公共管理学报,2012, 9(1):64-69.Yu J, Yuan N N. Analysis on the effects of oriented-rent housing and oriented-sell housing about low-rent housing—Based on the survey in XX city in Shanxi province[J]. Journal of Public Management, 2012, 9(1):64-69.
[19]吴宾,孙慧慧.我国住房保障政策实施的政府绩效评估研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):70-76.Wu B, Sun H H. Government performance evaluation research in housing security policy implementation in China[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences Edition), 2013(4):70-76.
[20]陈立中.住房保障政策瞄准效率及其影响因素——来自北京市廉租房和经济适用房政策的实证[J].财经科学,2010(5):39-46.Chen L Z. An analysis on the targeting efficiency and influencing factors of housing security policies:Evidence from low-rent housing and economical housing in Beijing City[J]. Finance&Economics, 2010(5):39-46.
[21]王蕾.以公平为基点反思我国住房保障政策[J].华东政法大学学报,2011,14(6):117-123.Wang L. Rethinking China's housing security policy on the basis of fairness[J]. Journal of East China University of Political Science and Law, 2011, 14(6):117-123.
[22] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk title[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2):263-291.
[23] Fiegenbaum A, Thomas H. Attitudes toward risk and the risk-return paradox:Prospect theory explanations[J].Academy of Management Journal, 1988, 31(1):85-106.
[24] Jegers M. Prospect theory and the risk-return relation:Some Belgian evidence[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 1991, 34(1):215-225.
[25] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J]. Journal of Risk&Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[26] Wu G,Gonzalez R. Curvature of the probability weighting function[J]. Management Science, 1996, 42(12):1676-1690.
[27] Prelec D. The probability weighting function[J]. Econometrica, 1998, 66(3):497-527.
[28] Diecidue E, Schmidt U, Zank H. Parametric weighting functions[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 144(3):1102-1118.
[29]穆怀中.社会保障水平发展曲线研究[J].人口研究,2003, 27(2):22-28.Mu H Z. Study on the curve-shape development of life security level[J]. Population Research, 2003, 27(2):22-28.
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